Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models
Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models

Author: Andrew M. Isserman

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 276

ISBN-13: 9400949804

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Population change and population forecasts are receiving considerable attention from governmental planners and policy-makers, as well as from the private sector. Old patterns of population redistribution, industrial location, labor-force participation, household formation, and fertility are changing. The resulting uncertainty has increased interest in forecasting because mere extrapolations of past trends are proving inadequate. In the United States of America popUlation forecasts received even more attention after federal agencies began distributing funds for capital infrastructure to state and local governments on the basis of projected future populations. If the national government had based those funding decisions on locally prepared projections, the optimism of local officials would have resulted in billions of dollars worth of excess capacity in sewage treatment plants alone. Cabinet-level inquiries concluded that the U. S. Department of Commerce should (1) assume the responsibility for developing a single set of projections for use whenever future population was a consideration in federal spending decisions and (2) develop methods which incorporate both economic and demographic factors causing population change. Neither the projections prepared by economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis nor those prepared by demographers at the Bureau of the Census were considered satisfactory because neither method adequately recognized the intertwined nature of demographic and economic change. Against this background, the American Statistical Association (ASA) and the U. S.

Small Area Employment Forecasting
Small Area Employment Forecasting

Author: Kevin Allen

Publisher:

Published: 1978

Total Pages: 286

ISBN-13:

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Monograph on employment forecasting at the local level in the UK - covers information sources, the shortcomings of existing data collecting methods, forecasting techniques, testing of forecasts, etc. Statistical tables.

Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques
Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques

Author: Michael R. Greenberg

Publisher: Rutgers Univ Center for Urban

Published: 1978-01-01

Total Pages: 277

ISBN-13: 9780882850498

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Forecasting populations, beyond fifteen years requires an encyclopedic knowledge of the national, regional, and local socioeconomic, political, and physical environments, combined with a large measure of imagination. Projections of this type are increasingly required by private and public decision-makers. The authors, who are top researchers in this area, have provided a comprehensive analysis that goes beyond the standard fifteen-year forecast. Local Population and Employment Projection Techniques presents a set of programmed models that project the populations of minor civil divisions (MCDs) up to fifty years and employment of counties up to twenty-five years. Three classes of MCD population models are presented, each of which is constrained at the county scale by county projections that are, constrained by state and national projections. The simplest model extrapolates a trend in the historical growth rates of MCDs, while a second method is based on the distributional properties of projections made by regional or county agencies. A procedure is provided for allocating the projections to an alternative set of spatial units. The second part of this book provides employment projection methods. Four models are presented: one is a simple regression model, and there are three step-down models: one of which is a constant share model; a second model weights the constant share projections by population projections; and a third includes a competitive component. In addition, each portion of the book contains three major pieces: an overview of available projection models; state, county, and, in the case of population projections, minor civil division models; computer programs, user's instructions, and the input and output of a sample problem.