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Published: 1982

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The development of an oil shale industry in northwestern Colorado and northeastern Utah has been forecast at various times since early this century, but the comparatively easy accessibility of other oil sources has forestalled development. Decreasing fuel supplies, increasing energy costs, and the threat of a crippling oil embargo finally may launch a commercial oil shale industry in this region. Concern for the possible impacts on the human environment has been fostered by experiences of rapid population growth in other western towns that have hosted energy resource development. A large number of studies have attempted to evaluate social and economic impacts of energy development and to determine important factors that affect the severity of these impacts. These studies have suggested that successful management of rapid population growth depends on adequate front-end capital for public facilities, availability of housing, attention to human service needs, long-range land use and fiscal planning. This study examines variables that affect the socioeconomic impacts of oil shale development. The study region is composed of four Colorado counties: Mesa, Moffat, Garfield and Rio Blanco. Most of the estimated population of 111 000 resides in a handful of urban areas that are separated by large distances and rugged terrain. We have projected the six largest cities and towns and one planned company town (Battlement Mesa) to be the probable centers for potential population impacts caused by development of an oil shale industry. Local planners expect Battlement Mesa to lessen impacts on small existing communities and indeed may be necessary to prevent severe regional socioeconomic impacts. Section II describes the study region and focuses on the economic trends and present conditions in the area. The population impacts analyzed in this study are contingent on a scenario of oil shale development from 1980-90 provided by the Department of Energy and discussed in Sec. III. We recognize that the rate of development, the magnitude of development, and the technology mix that will actually take place remain uncertain. Although we emphasize that other energy and mineral resources besides oil shale may be developed, the conclusions reached in this study reflect only those impacts that would be felt from the oil shale scenario. Socioeconomic impacts in the region reflect the uneven growth rate implied by the scenario and will be affected by the timing of industry developments, the length and magnitude of the construction phase of development, and the shift in employment profiles predicted in the scenario. The facilities in the southern portion of the oil shale region, those along the Colorado River and Parachute Creek, show a peak in the construction work force in the mid-1980s, whereas those f acil it i es in the Piceance Creek Bas into the north show a construction peak in the late 1980s. Together, the facilities will require a large construction work force throughout the decade, with a total of 4800 construction workers required in 1985. Construction at the northern sites and second phase construction in the south will require 6000 workers in 1988. By 1990, the operation work force will increase to 7950. Two important characteristics of oil shale development emerge from the work force estimates: (1) peak-year construction work forces will be 90-120% the size of the permanent operating work force; and (2) the yearly changes in total work force requirements will be large, as much as 900 in one year at one facility. To estimate population impacts on individual communities, we devised a population distribution method that is described in Sec. IV. Variables associated with the projection of population impacts are discussed and methodologies of previous assessments are compared. Scenario-induced population impacts estimated by the Los Alamos method are compared to projections of a model employed by the Colorado West Area Council of Governments. O ...