Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance

Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance

Author: Georgios P. Kouretas

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2014-02-20

Total Pages: 285

ISBN-13: 178350756X

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Banking sector transformation, economic growth and inequality and exchange rate arrangements are critical issues whose importance has been highlighted during the recent financial crisis. This volume contains new research on the relationships between economic growth, inequality and the financial sector.


Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-06

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1513555839

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We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.


Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Author: Laurence M. Ball

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-06-01

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 1455263389

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This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.


A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area

A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area

Author: Thomas McGregor

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-12-16

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13:

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We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore which factors drove the deterioration in forecasting performance during the pandemic period and use these insights to improve on the ability to forecast inflation. In the baseline, the projection for core inflation is centered above 3 percent at end-2023, while headline inflation is expected to drop quite sharply over 2023, with energy base effects pulling inflation down from the currently very elevated levels to below 3 percent by 2023q4. The confidence intervals around these projections are wide given elevated uncertainty. We argue that the bottom-up approach offers a useful complement to the forecasters toolbox – even in the current uncertain environment - by improving forecast accuracy, shedding additional light on the drivers of inflation and providing a framework in which to apply ex post judgement in a structured way.


A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

Author: Laurence M. Ball

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-02-25

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 1498321070

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This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.


European Inflation Dynamics

European Inflation Dynamics

Author: Jordi Galí

Publisher:

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13:

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We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labor productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than U.S. data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward- looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the U.S., (d) labor market frictions, as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and, consequently, inflation in Europe.


Unemployment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies

Unemployment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies

Author: Jordi Gali

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2024-12-10

Total Pages: 119

ISBN-13: 0262553821

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A new approach for introducing unemployment into the New Keynesian framework. The past fifteen years have witnessed the rise of the New Keynesian model as a framework of reference for the analysis of fluctuations and stabilization policies. That framework, which combines the rigor and internal consistency of dynamic general equilibrium models with such typically Keynesian assumptions as monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities, makes possible a meaningful, welfare-based analysis of the effects of monetary policy rules. But the conspicuous absence of unemployment from the standard New Keynesian model has given rise to both criticism and attempts to rectify this anomaly. In this book, Jordi Galí, one of the major contributors to the New Keynesian literature, offers a new approach to introducing unemployment into that framework. Galí's approach involves a reinterpretation of the labor market in the standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting (rather than a modification or extension of the model, as has been proposed by others). The resulting framework preserves the convenience of the representative household paradigm and allows one to determine the equilibrium levels of employment, the labor force, and hence the unemployment rate conditional on the monetary policy in place. Galí develops the basic model, embedding it in a standard New Keynesian framework with staggered price and wage setting; revisits the relationship between economic fluctuations and efficiency through the lens of the new model, developing a measure of the output gap; and analyzes the relation between unemployment and the design of monetary policy.


Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

Author: Davide Debortoli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-07-21

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13: 1484311752

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Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.


Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Author: Otmar Issing

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2001-07-26

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 9780521788885

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A non-technical analysis of the monetary policy strategy, institutions and operational procedures of the Eurosystem, first published in 2001.