The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.
Still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have been hit by a sluggish global economy, worldwide inflation, high borrowing costs, and a cost-of-living crisis. In many cases, inflation is still too high, borrowing costs are still elevated, exchange-rate pressures persist, and political instability is an ongoing concern. To ensure that the coming rebound is more than just a transitory glimpse of sunshine, it is important for authorities to guard against a premature relaxation of stabilization policies, while also focusing on reforms to both claw back lost ground from the four-year crisis and also to create new space to address the region’s pressing development needs.
Forecasting inflation has become a major challenge for central banks since 2020, due to supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainty post-pandemic. Machine learning models can improve forecasting performance by incorporating a wider range of variables, allowing for non-linear relationships, and focusing on out-of-sample performance. In this paper, we apply machine learning (ML) models to forecast near-term core inflation in Japan post-pandemic. Japan is a challenging case, because inflation had been muted until 2022 and has now risen to a level not seen in four decades. Four machine learning models are applied to a large set of predictors alongside two benchmark models. For 2023, the two penalized regression models systematically outperform the benchmark models, with LASSO providing the most accurate forecast. Useful predictors of inflation post-2022 include household inflation expectations, inbound tourism, exchange rates, and the output gap.
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Practical Macroeconomics for Non-Economists provides the tools, the theory, and the empirical understanding of macroeconomics without the heavy lifting of the mathematical and econometric models. This accessible book introduces the building blocks of macroeconomic thinking and challenges the reader to apply these insights to learn why economists say what they do and what guides economic policymakers. Linking actual data to theoretical concepts, it explores competing economic theories, and uncovers some of the key controversies in macroeconomic theory and how different perspectives lead to alternative and vastly different policy recommendations. Key features include: • Coverage of all the key macroeconomic topics, such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, output and productivity, business cycles, aggregate demand/supply, and fiscal and monetary policy. • Question-and-answer format, covering the foundations of each topic in a logical progression, to provide the reader with a quick reference and more focused discussion. • "Advanced questions" to encourage deeper discussion. • Start-of-chapter learning objectives, which allow the reader to "see" the road ahead for each section. • End-of-chapter "Issues to think about" boxed features, which offer the reader an opportunity to apply critical thinking to the issues covered. • Resource manual and PowerPoints for instructors. Practical Macroeconomics for Non-Economists is the ideal textbook for anyone looking for a practical and non-technical introduction to the subject.
The Global Innovation Index 2020 provides detailed metrics about the innovation performance of 131 countries and economies around the world. Its 80 indicators explore a broad vision of innovation, including political environment, education, infrastructure and business sophistication. The 2020 edition sheds light on the state of innovation financing by investigating the evolution of financing mechanisms for entrepreneurs and other innovators, and by pointing to progress and remaining challenges – including in the context of the economic slowdown induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis.
Topics include work-integrated learning (internships), student well-being, and students with disabilities. Also,it explores the impact on assessments and academic integrity and what analysis of online systems tells us. Preface ................................................................................................................................ ix Section I: Introduction .................................................. 1 Chapter 1: COVID-19 Emergency Education Policy and Learning Loss: A Comparative Study ............................................................................................................ 3 Athena Vongalis-Macrow, Denise De Souza, Clare Littleton, Anna Sekhar Section II: Student and Teacher Perspectives .............. 27 Chapter 2: Classrooms Going Digital – Evaluating Online Presence Through Students’ Perception Using Community of Inquiry Framework .............................. 29 Hiep Cong Pham, Phuong Ai Hoang, Duy Khanh Pham, Nguyen Hoang Thuan, Minh Nhat Nguyen Chapter 3: A Study of Music Education, Singing, and Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perspectives of Music Teachers and Their Students in Hong Kong, China .......................................................................................................... 51 Wai-Chung Ho Hong Kong Baptist University Chapter 4: The Architectural Design Studio During a Pandemic: A Hybrid Pedagogy of Virtual and Experiential Learning .......................................................... 75 Cecilia De Marinis, Ross T. Smith Chapter 5: Enhancing Online Education with Intelligent Discussion Tools ........ 97 Jake Renzella, Laura Tubino, Andrew Cain, Jean-Guy Schneider Section III: Student Experience ................................... 115 Chapter 6: Australian Higher Education Student Perspectives on Emergency Remote Teaching During the COVID-19 Pandemic ............................................... 117 Christopher Cheong, Justin Filippou, France Cheong, Gillian Vesty, Viktor Arity Chapter 7: Online Learning and Engagement with the Business Practices During Pandemic ......................................................................................................................... 151 Aida Ghalebeigi, Ehsan Gharaie Chapter 8: Effects of an Emergency Transition to Online Learning in Higher Education in Mexico ..................................................................................................... 165 Deon Victoria Heffington, Vladimir Veniamin Cabañas Victoria Chapter 9: Factors Affecting the Quality of E-Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic From the Perspective of Higher Education Students ............................ 189 Kesavan Vadakalur Elumalai, Jayendira P Sankar, Kalaichelvi R, Jeena Ann John, Nidhi Menon, Mufleh Salem M Alqahtani, May Abdulaziz Abumelha Disabilities ................................................................. 213 Chapter 10: Learning and Working Online During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Wellbeing Literacy Perspective on Work Integrated Learning Students ............... 215 Nancy An, Gillian Vesty, Christopher Cheong Chapter 11: Hands-on Learning in a Hands-off World: Project-Based Learning as a Method of Student Engagement and Support During the COVID-19 Crisis .. 245 Nicole A. Suarez, Ephemeral Roshdy, Dana V. Bakke, Andrea A. Chiba, Leanne Chukoskie Chapter 12: Positive and Contemplative Pedagogies: A Holistic Educational Approach to Student Learning and Well-being ........................................................ 265 Sandy Fitzgerald (née Ng) Chapter 13: Taking Advantage of New Opportunities Afforded by the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study in Responsive and Dynamic Library and Information Science Work Integrated Learning .............................................................................. 297 Jessie Lymn, Suzanne Pasanai Chapter 14: Online Learning for Students with Disabilities During COVID-19 Lockdown ....................................................................................................................... 313 Mark Taylor Section V: Teacher Practice .......................................... 331 Chapter 15: From Impossibility to Necessity: Reflections on Moving to Emergency Remote University Teaching During COVID-19 ............................... 333 Mikko Rajanen Chapter 16: Business (Teaching) as Usual Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Online Teaching Practice in Hong Kong ......................................... 355 Tsz Kit Ng, Rebecca Reynolds, Man Yi (Helen) Chan, Xiu Han Li, Samuel Kai Wah Chu Chapter 17: Secondary School Language Teachers’ Online Learning Engagement during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia ......................................................... 385 Imelda Gozali, Anita Lie, Siti Mina Tamah, Katarina Retno Triwidayati, Tresiana Sari Diah Utami, Fransiskus Jemadi Chapter 18: Riding the COVID-19 Wave: Online Learning Activities for a Field-based Marine Science Unit ........................................................................................... 415 PF Francis Section VI: Assessment and Academic Integrity .......... 429 Chapter 19: Student Academic Integrity in Online Learning in Higher Education in the Era of COVID-19 .............................................................................................. 431 Carolyn Augusta, Robert D. E. Henderson Chapter 20: Assessing Mathematics During COVID-19 Times ............................ 447 Simon James, Kerri Morgan, Guillermo Pineda-Villavicencio, Laura Tubino Chapter 21: Preparedness of Institutions of Higher Education for Assessment in Virtual Learning Environments During the COVID-19 Lockdown: Evidence of Bona Fide Challenges and Pragmatic Solutions ........................................................ 465 Talha Sharadgah, Rami Sa’di Section VII: Social Media, Analytics, and Systems ...... 487 Chapter 22: Learning Disrupted: A Comparison of Two Consecutive Student Cohorts ............................................................................................................................ 489 Peter Vitartas, Peter Matheis Chapter 23: What Twitter Tells Us about Online Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic ................................................................................................................... 503 Sa Liu, Jason R Harron
This book includes original unpublished contributions presented at the International Conference on Data Analytics and Management (ICDAM 2020), held at Jan Wyzykowski University, Poland, during June 2020. The book covers the topics in data analytics, data management, big data, computational intelligence, and communication networks. The book presents innovative work by leading academics, researchers, and experts from industry which is useful for young researchers and students.
This book presents the outcome of two-day 2nd International e-Conference on Sustainable and Innovative Solutions for Current Challenges in Engineering and Technology (ICSISCET 2020) held at Madhav Institute of Technology & Science (MITS), Gwalior, India, from December 18–19, 2020. The book extensively covers recent research in artificial intelligence (AI) that knit together nature-inspired algorithms, evolutionary computing, fuzzy systems, computational intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, etc., which is very useful while dealing with real problems due to their model-free structure, learning ability, and flexible approach. These techniques mimic human thinking and decision-making abilities to produce systems that are intelligent, efficient, cost-effective, and fast. The book provides a friendly and informative treatment of the topics which makes this book an ideal reference for both beginners and experienced researchers.
