The Timeline of Presidential Elections

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

Author: Robert S. Erikson

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2012-08-24

Total Pages: 221

ISBN-13: 0226922162

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In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.


The Best Candidate

The Best Candidate

Author: Eugene D. Mazo

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-09-17

Total Pages: 419

ISBN-13: 1108835392

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Leading scholars examine the law governing the American presidential nomination process and offer practical ideas for reform.


Primary Politics

Primary Politics

Author: Elaine C. Kamarck

Publisher:

Published: 2018-10-30

Total Pages: 251

ISBN-13: 9780815735274

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"Explores one of the most important questions in American politics--how we narrow the list of presidential candidates every four years. Focuses on how presidential candidates have sought to alter the rules in their favor and how their failures and successes have led to even more change"--Provided by publisher.


American Reboot

American Reboot

Author: Will Hurd

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2022-03-29

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 1982160705

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From former Republican Congressman and CIA Officer Will Hurd, a bold political playbook for America rooted in the timeless ideals of bipartisanship, inclusivity, and democratic values. It's getting harder to get big things done in America. The gears of our democracy have been mucked up by political nonsense. To meet the era-defining challenges of the 21st century, our country needs a reboot. In American Reboot, Hurd, called "the future of the GOP" by Politico, provides a clear-eyed path forward for America grounded by what Hurd calls pragmatic idealism--a concept forged from enduring American values to achieve what is actually achievable. Hurd takes on five seismic problems facing a country in crisis: the Republican Party's failure to present a principled vision for the future; the lack of honest leadership in Washington, DC; income inequality that threatens the livelihood of millions of Americans; US economic and military dominance that is no longer guaranteed; and how technological change in the next thirty years will make the advancements of the last thirty years look trivial. Hurd has seen these challenges up close. A child of interracial parents in South Texas, Hurd survived the back alleys of dangerous places as a CIA officer. He carried that experience into three terms in Congress, where he was, for a time, the House's only Black Republican, representing a 71 percent Latino swing district in Texas that runs along 820 miles of US-Mexico border. As a cyber security executive and innovation crusader, Hurd has worked with entrepreneurs on the cutting edge of technology to anticipate the shockwaves of the future. Hurd draws on his remarkable experience to present an inspiring guide for America. He outlines how the Republican party can look like America by appealing to the middle, not the edges. He maps out how leaders should inspire rather than fearmonger. He forges a domestic policy based on the idea that prosperity should be a product of empowering people, not the government. He articulates a foreign policy where our enemies fear us and our friends love us. And lastly, he charts a forceful path forward for America's technological future. We all know we can do better. It's time to hit "ctrl alt del" and start the American Reboot.


Presidential Elections and Majority Rule

Presidential Elections and Majority Rule

Author: Edward B. Foley

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 0190060158

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In his latest book, Presidential Elections and Majority Rule, Edward Foley asks how the American electoral system can better represent the people. What kind of winner truly reflects the nation's votes: the plurality winners of winner-takes-all elections, as currently used, or the majority-preferred winners of a reformed system? How do third-party candidates affect American presidential elections? What, if anything, would change in a two-candidate run-off?And how can electoral reform be implemented without sowing chaos? Ultimately, Foley outlines a solution in which the Electoral College can be restored to its original majoritarian ideals through state law rather than Constitutional amendment.


Do Running Mates Matter?

Do Running Mates Matter?

Author: Christopher J. Devine

Publisher: University Press of Kansas

Published: 2020-05-15

Total Pages: 298

ISBN-13: 070062970X

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The American vice presidency, as the saying goes, “is not worth a bucket of warm spit.” Yet vice presidential candidates, many people believe, can make all the difference in winning—or losing—a presidential election. Is that true, though? Did Sarah Palin, for example, sink John McCain’s campaign in 2008? Did Joe Biden help Barack Obama win? Do running mates actually matter? In the first book to put this question to a rigorous test, Christopher J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko draw upon an unprecedented range of empirical data to reveal how, and how much, running mates influence voting in presidential elections. Building on their previous work in The VP Advantage and evidence from over 200 statistical models spanning the 1952 to 2016 presidential elections, the authors analyze three pathways by which running mates might influence vote choice. First, of course, they test for direct effects, or whether evaluations of the running mate influence vote choice among voters in general. Next, they test for targeted effects—if, that is, running mates win votes among key subsets of voters who share their gender, religion, ideology, or geographic identity. Finally, the authors examine indirect effects—that is, whether running mates shape perceptions of the presidential candidate who selected them, which in turn influence vote choice. Here, in this last category, is where we see running mates most clearly influencing presidential voting—especially when it comes to their qualifications for holding office and taking over as president, if necessary. Picking a running mate from a key voting bloc probably won’t make a difference, the authors conclude. But picking an experienced, well-qualified running mate will make the presidential candidate look better to voters—and win some votes. With its wealth of data and expert analysis, this finely crafted study, the most comprehensive to date, finally provides clear answers to one of the most enduring questions in presidential politics: can the running mate make a difference in this election?


The VP Advantage

The VP Advantage

Author: Christopher Devine

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781784993375

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A widespread perception exists among political commentators, campaign operatives and presidential candidates that vice presidential (VP) running mates can deliver their home state's electoral votes in a presidential election. In recent elections, presidential campaigns have even changed their strategy in response to the perceived VP home state advantage. But is the advantage real? And could it decide a presidential election? In the most comprehensive analysis to date, Devine and Kopko demonstrate that the VP home state advantage is actually highly conditional and rarely decisive in the Electoral College. However, it could change the outcome of a presidential election under narrow but plausible conditions. Sophisticated in its methodology and rich in historical as well as contemporary insight, The VP Advantage is essential and accessible reading for anyone interested in understanding how running mates influence presidential elections.


The 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates Coloring and Activity Book

The 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates Coloring and Activity Book

Author: Sonya Saturday

Publisher: S&S/Simon Element

Published: 2020-01-28

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 1982142251

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Congratulations, America—it’s election season again! Try to enjoy it with this highly entertaining coloring and activity book featuring (almost!) all of the Democrats who decided to run for president in 2020. Featuring more than 60 pages of liberal fun for the whole family, The 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates Coloring and Activity Book is chock-full of creative activities, puzzles, portraits, and memorable quotes from both the Dems who actually have a shot of winning the nomination and the ones who should have never run in the first place! So whether you need a good laugh or want an outlet for your existential rage, this book offers an amusing diversion from the madness of the 2020 election.