This book deals with the omitted variable test for a multivariate time-series regression model. The empirical motivation is the homogeneity test for a consumer demand system. The consequences of using a dynamically misspecified omitted variable test are shown in detail. The analysis starts with the univariate t-test and is then extended to the multivariate regression system. The small sample performance of the dynamically correctly specified omitted variable test is analysed by simulation. Two classes of tests are considered: versions of the likelihood ratio test and the robust Wald test which is based on a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent variance-covariance estimator (HAC).
"Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing, and no claim can be made for a single valid method, but recent results on the theory and practice of model selection bid fair to resolve many of the contentious issues.The book presents criticisms and evaluations of competing approaches, based on theoretical economic and econometric analyses, empirical applications, and Monte Carlo simulations, which interact to determine best practice. It explains the evolution of an approach to econometric modelling founded in careful statistical analyses of the available data, using economic theory to guide the general model specification. From a strong foundation in the theory of reduction, via a range of applied andsimulation studies, it demonstrates that general-to-specific procedures have excellent properties.The book is divided into four Parts: Routes and Route Maps; Empirical Modelling Strategies; Formalization; and Retrospect and Prospect. A short preamble to each chapter sketches the salient themes, links to earlier and later developments, and the lessons learnt or missed at the time. A sequence of detailed empirical studies of consumers' expenditure and money demand illustrate most facets of the approach. Material new to this revised edition describes recent major advances in computer-automatedmodel selection, embodied in the powerful new software program PcGets, which establish the operational success of the modelling strategy.
Recognising the fact that A level mathematics is no longer a necessary prerequisite for economics courses, this text introduces this key subdivision of economics to an audience who might otherwise have been deterred by its complexity.
This book constitutes the first serious attempt to explain the basics of econometrics and its applications in the clearest and simplest manner possible. Recognising the fact that a good level of mathematics is no longer a necessary prerequisite for economics/financial economics undergraduate and postgraduate programmes, it introduces this key subdivision of economics to an audience who might otherwise have been deterred by its complex nature.
Aid for Trade (AfT) has been an integral part of official development assistance (ODA) since its inception at the World Trade Organization’s Hong Kong Ministerial in 2005. While many observers agree that the initiative has generated momentum in securing more trade support, the policy discourse on AfT continues to be vibrant and dynamic. This volume, comprising 16 chapters prepared by 20 renowned experts from a range of international organisations, think tanks and academic institutions, including Commonwealth Secretariat, ODI, ECDPM, DIE, ICTSD, Saana Consulting, WTI Advisors, and Columbia University, provides a comprehensive review of the Aid for Trade initiative. Part I of this volume uses quantitative and qualitative analysis to examine the effectiveness of different components of Aid for Trade and underlying factors affecting the outcomes. Part II provides analyses of current issues, including regional AfT, global value chains, infrastructure for development for agriculture, AfT adjustment and lessons from emerging economies in aiding exports. Part III looks to the future, proposing a range of possible directions including an alternative way to improve trade outcomes for developing countries from Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.
A dramatic change of ownership, regulation, and organisation of essential public services, such as electricity, gas, and telecommunications, has taken place in Europe in less than 20 years. This was not the outcome of spontaneous adaptation, but an entirely top-down policy experiment, mainly conceived in London during Mrs Thatcher's years, then pursued in Brussels - the 'capital' of the European Union - and imposed on more or less reluctant players by laws, directives, regulations, and administrative and judicial decisions. The European reform paradigm revolves around three pillars: privatisation, unbundling, and regulated liberalisation of network industries. These industries, despite the reforms, are still special, as they include core natural monopoly components (the electricity grid, the gas pipelines, the telephony networks, etc.), are often based on complex system integration of different segments (for example of electricity generation, transmission, distribution and retail supply), and offer services that have critical social and economic importance, from heating to internet. This book offers a careful scrutiny of energy and telephony reforms and prices paid by households in 15 countries across Western Europe. It attempts to answer such questions as: Are the consumers in Europe happier than they were before the reforms? Do they pay less? Do they get a better quality for the services? Network Industries and Social Welfare provides an overview of the main facts, the conceptual issues, and of the empirical evidence on pricing, perceptions of quality of service, and the issues of utility poverty and social affordability. It suggests that the benefits of the reforms for the consumers have often been limited and that governments should reconsider their overconfidence in regulated market mechanisms in network industries.
It is the editor’s distinct privilege to gather this collection of papers that honors Subhal Kumbhakar’s many accomplishments, drawing further attention to the various areas of scholarship that he has touched.
