New techniques for improving climate models, predictions and projections
Author: Matthew Collins
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Published: 2022-01-24
Total Pages: 178
ISBN-13: 2889741397
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A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Author: Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling
Publisher: National Academies Press
Published: 2013-01-07
Total Pages: 252
ISBN-13: 0309259789
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAs climate change has pushed climate patterns outside of historic norms, the need for detailed projections is growing across all sectors, including agriculture, insurance, and emergency preparedness planning. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling emphasizes the needs for climate models to evolve substantially in order to deliver climate projections at the scale and level of detail desired by decision makers, this report finds. Despite much recent progress in developing reliable climate models, there are still efficiencies to be gained across the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling community. Evolving to a more unified climate modeling enterprise-in particular by developing a common software infrastructure shared by all climate researchers and holding an annual climate modeling forum-could help speed progress. Throughout this report, several recommendations and guidelines are outlined to accelerate progress in climate modeling. The U.S. supports several climate models, each conceptually similar but with components assembled with slightly different software and data output standards. If all U.S. climate models employed a single software system, it could simplify testing and migration to new computing hardware, and allow scientists to compare and interchange climate model components, such as land surface or ocean models. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling recommends an annual U.S. climate modeling forum be held to help bring the nation's diverse modeling communities together with the users of climate data. This would provide climate model data users with an opportunity to learn more about the strengths and limitations of models and provide input to modelers on their needs and provide a venue for discussions of priorities for the national modeling enterprise, and bring disparate climate science communities together to design common modeling experiments. In addition, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling explains that U.S. climate modelers will need to address an expanding breadth of scientific problems while striving to make predictions and projections more accurate. Progress toward this goal can be made through a combination of increasing model resolution, advances in observations, improved model physics, and more complete representations of the Earth system. To address the computing needs of the climate modeling community, the report suggests a two-pronged approach that involves the continued use and upgrading of existing climate-dedicated computing resources at modeling centers, together with research on how to effectively exploit the more complex computer hardware systems expected over the next 10 to 20 years.
Downscaling Techniques for High-Resolution Climate Projections
Author: Rao Kotamarthi
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2021-02-11
Total Pages: 213
ISBN-13: 1108587062
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDownscaling is a widely used technique for translating information from large-scale climate models to the spatial and temporal scales needed to assess local and regional climate impacts, vulnerability, risk and resilience. This book is a comprehensive guide to the downscaling techniques used for climate data. A general introduction of the science of climate modeling is followed by a discussion of techniques, models and methodologies used for producing downscaled projections, and the advantages, disadvantages and uncertainties of each. The book provides detailed information on dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques in non-technical language, as well as recommendations for selecting suitable downscaled datasets for different applications. The use of downscaled climate data in national and international assessments is also discussed using global examples. This is a practical guide for graduate students and researchers working on climate impacts and adaptation, as well as for policy makers and practitioners interested in climate risk and resilience.
High-resolution Coupling and Initialization to Improve Predictability and Predictions in Climate Models Workshop, September 30-October 2, 2015
Author:
Publisher:
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 45
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOK"There is a growing demand for reliable high-resolution, coupled-climate information in two communities: the predictions and projections communities. The climate prediction community conducts both basic and applied research on short-range climate predictability that directly benefit operational forecast capabilities, and the climate modeling and projection community focuses primarily on basic research concerning climate variability and long-term climate change. Despite the differences, there are several key parallels between these two research communities—a basic example being that both communities assimilate observational data into comprehensive physical climate or earth system models. The prediction community uses a variety of data assimilation techniques for initializing real-time forecasts and reforecasts, and for producing reanalysis, while the climate modeling and projections community started to adopt data assimilation techniques for basic research and for short-term reforecasts to diagnose model behavior. Both communities are also on the verge of increasing the resolution of the climate models while coupling with many more components of the climate and Earth system. While the predictions community explicitly aims to advance the development of operational products that are of the highest possible value to stakeholders and decision-makers at the weeks-toseasons timescale, the climate modeling community is implicitly involved in generating products that are used in assessments and to inform stakeholders and decision-makers about long-term climate change. Recognizing the common challenges and capitalizing on the potential synergies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) jointly hosted the workshop High-Resolution Coupling and Initialization to Improve Predictability and Predictions in Climate Models. This workshop brought together two groups of scientific experts: one focused on sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate predictions and the other focused on using initialized simulations to identify biases in climate models, such as in the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT)"--Executive summary. [doi:10.7289/V5K35RNX (http://dx.doi.org/10.7289/V5K35RNX)]
Demystifying Climate Models
Author: Andrew Gettelman
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2016-04-09
Total Pages: 282
ISBN-13: 3662489597
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Making Climate Forecasts Matter
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Published: 1999-05-27
Total Pages: 189
ISBN-13: 030917340X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEl Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction
Author: Andrew Robertson
Publisher: Elsevier
Published: 2018-10-19
Total Pages: 588
ISBN-13: 012811715X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
Published: 2018-06-18
Total Pages: 207
ISBN-13: 0309471699
DOWNLOAD EBOOKClimate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Climate Change Modeling Methodology
Author: Philip J. Rasch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2012-12-09
Total Pages: 337
ISBN-13: 146145767X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and computer models project that it will rise much more over the next hundred years, with significant impacts on weather, climate, and human society. Many climate scientists attribute these increases to the build up of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels and to the anthropogenic production of short-lived climate pollutants. Climate Change Modeling Methodologies: Selected Entries from the Encyclopaedia of Sustainability Science and Technology provides readers with an introduction to the tools and analysis techniques used by climate change scientists to interpret the role of these forcing agents on climate. Readers will also gain a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models and how to test and assess them. The contributions include a glossary of key terms and a concise definition of the subject for each topic, as well as recommendations for sources of more detailed information.
Our Future Climate
Author:
Publisher:
Published: 2003
Total Pages: 40
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIssued for World Meteorological Day 2003, this brochure explains, in terms accessible to the general public, the climate system and the climate change processes, as well as model projections of our future climate with its far-reaching consequences to society. The brochure also explains why the unprecedented weather- and climate-related extreme events, such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones in various parts of the world, are glimpses of what could be awaiting future generations if human-induced change to our climate is not brought under control.--Publisher's description.
