Monitoring the Agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020–August 2023
Monitoring the Agri-food System in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020–August 2023

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-10-26

Total Pages: 5

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We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on largescale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until August 2023) and households (fielded in 5 periods in 2022 and 2023) in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key Findings  Over the full period (June 2020 - August 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 111 percent and the common diet by 130 percent.  After a reprieve from high food inflation in the first half of 2023, prices increased rapidly in Q3 resulting in a 23 and 27 percent increase in the healthy and common diets, respectively, in August 2023 compared to the previous year, when food prices were already very high.  Rice – the major staple – prices increased by 67 percent between August 2022 and August 2023.  Over the full period (June 2020 to August 2023), pulse, pork, and leafy green prices approximately doubled; rice prices nearly tripled; potato and onion prices more than tripled; and oil prices more than quadrupled.  The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 18 and 16 percent between the Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023. However, rising wages increased more rapidly in the first half of 2023 while food inflation slowed which stabilized diet adjusted wages.  Food costs outpaced wages between Q2 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended Actions  Food should be available at low costs to avoid food security and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.  As casual wage workers are among the poorest and as their situation is worsening, they should be targeted in social safety net programs.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020 - February 2023
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets and declining purchasing power of casual wage laborers: June 2020 - February 2023

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-04-24

Total Pages: 13

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We assess changes in food prices and purchasing power of casual wage laborers based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until February 2023) and households in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar. Key findings  Over the full period (June 2020 - February 2023), the cost of the healthy diet rose by 72 percent and the common diet by 82 percent.  Prices for rice –the major staple– increased by 62 percent between March 2022 and February 2023.  The costs of a common and healthy diet increased especially over the year 2022, by 50 and 51 percent respectively between Q1 of 2022 and Q4 of 2022.  Diet costs increased more in rural areas compared to urban areas and more in the Dry Zone and coastal areas – which are more affected by conflicts – compared to the national average.  The value of daily wages of construction and agricultural wage laborers relative to common and healthy diet costs declined by about 25 and 28 percent over the year 2022.  Food costs are outpacing wages, making food increasingly unaffordable for wage earners who are among the most vulnerable household groups in Myanmar, particularly in rural areas. Recommended actions  Food should be available at low costs to avoid food insecurity and nutrition problems in the country; assuring a well-functioning agri-food system should therefore be a priority for all stakeholders.  Casual wage workers are among the poorest and their situation is worsening. They should therefore be targeted in social safety net programs.  It is important to closely monitor food prices and the wages of the poor - they are good proxies for purchasing power and welfare and can be measured at high frequency.

Livelihood resilience and the agrifood system in Myanmar: Implications for agriculture and a rural development strategy in a time of crisis
Livelihood resilience and the agrifood system in Myanmar: Implications for agriculture and a rural development strategy in a time of crisis

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-08-24

Total Pages: 18

ISBN-13:

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Myanmar’s agrifood system has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of multiple crises—COVID 19, the military coup, economic mismanagement, global price instability, and widespread conflict—with respect to production and exports. Household welfare has not been resilient, however. High rates of inflation, especially food price inflation, have resulted in dietary degradation across all house hold groups, especially those dependent on casual wage labor. Among household members, young children experience the highest rates of inadequate dietary quality. Expanded social protection to improve access to better-quality diets for vulnerable households and individuals is therefore needed. Beyond the current political crisis, increased public and private investment in a more efficient and dynamic agrifood system should be a high priority. This will help drive down poverty rates and ensure access to healthy diets in the near term, while laying the foundation for sustained growth and structural transformation of the economy.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – March 2023 survey round
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Rice millers – March 2023 survey round

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-07-21

Total Pages: 8

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In March 2023, we interviewed more than 430 active rice millers to assess business disruptions and price changes at the midstream of Myanmar’s most important agricultural value chain. Key findings  High fuel costs and electricity supply remain the most commonly reported disruptions in March 2023, with medium/ large modern mills facing more issues related to transport costs, electricity supply, and transport restrictions.  Among the disruptions, electricity access is the most significant disruption for both medium/large-scale mills and small/micro mills, followed by fuel costs and fuel access.  Smaller mills experienced declines in throughput, while larger mills maintained similar monthly throughput and decreased paddy storage compared to the previous year. Larger mills were less willing to provide credit to farmers, and there was an increase in byproduct sales for smaller mills.  Wages paid by mills increased by about 18 percent, working capital requirements to buy paddy rose significantly for both larger and smaller mills, and milling commission fees increased for both mill types compared to last year.  Paddy and rice prices for Emata and Pawsan varieties have significantly increased in March 2023, surpassing prices from March 2021 and 2022 due to currency devaluation and a slight increase in global rice prices. Milling margins have also increased compared to previous years. Despite the price hikes, millers are not extracting a disproportionate share of rice prices, and the prices of main byproducts, like broken rice and rice bran, have remained healthy, presenting positive prospects for mill profit margins.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – August 2023 survey round
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – August 2023 survey round

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-09-28

Total Pages: 7

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To understand the effects of political instability and related shocks on Myanmar’s agricultural input sector, we conducted a phone survey of 187 input retailers throughout the country in August 2023. Key Findings • Fertilizer and pesticides were generally more available in 2023 monsoon than in 2022, though seeds were less available. More input retailers reported higher fertilizer sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic sales in 2019. Also on a positive note, the share of input sellers reporting low input demand dropped in 2023 compared to 2022. • Nominal fertilizer prices remain high in 2023, but sales have increased and prices relative to rice prices decreased 50 percent for urea and 38 percent for compound compared to 2022. • The percentage of input retailers reporting transportation disruptions has declined over the past 12 months, but 66 percent of retailers still report higher transportation costs. • Import challenges are now the most significant disruption to input retailers’ businesses, increased more than sixfold from less than 5 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. Fifty six percent of input sellers could not acquire at least some inputs. • More retailers reported purchasing and selling inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022 and demand for both credit in and credit out remain high. • The input retail sector has generally experienced growth in fertilizer sales over the past 10 years. Competition has also increased with 92 percent more input sellers in retailers’ village tracts or wards in 2023 compared to 2013 and 27 percent more relative to pre-COVID levels. Looking Forward • Higher fertilizer sales and decreased transportation disruptions in each agro-ecological zone relative to last year are positive signs for 2023 monsoon crop production. • However, unpredictable import processes and foreign exchange regulations could negatively affect input availability in the upcoming seasons. • More input retailers reported challenges with recovering credit lent out to farmers, and more farmers were buying inputs on credit in 2023 compared to 2022, indicating that farmers are still cash constrained.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Maize farmers – Monsoon season phone surveys
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Maize farmers – Monsoon season phone surveys

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-10-29

Total Pages: 7

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To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, we conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in July and September 2021. Key Findings There were widespread disruptions throughout the 2021 monsoon season: 11 percent of respondents were displaced by violence in July, and most farmers had had enforced transportation restrictions in their village tracts (58 percent) and their townships (84 percent). Seventy percent of farmers expect these restrictions to affect their monsoon marketing. Two-thirds of respondents received farm credit for inputs in the 2021 monsoon season, an increase of 3 percentage points relative to 2020, and average credit values increased slightly. Most credit was provided by traders (27 percent receiving), which may be unique to maize production as there are broader credit declines in other parts of the country and maize prices have increased in 2021. Additionally, exports to Thailand have been robust. High fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields. Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020, though average maize acreages were stable. Pest incidence rates (72 percent reporting problems), especially for fall armyworm (45 percent), were high in July, posing another threat to production. There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Understanding the rapid price increase of vegetable oils
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Understanding the rapid price increase of vegetable oils

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2022-04-12

Total Pages: 7

ISBN-13:

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This Research Note presents the results from an assessment of the evolution of vegetable oil prices in Myanmar. Vegetable oils are an important product in the diet of Myanmar consumers and high food inflation in the country - 19 percent between December 2022 compared to December 2021 (MAPSA 2022) - is partly explained by substantial price increases for vegetable oils. The purpose of this analysis is to provide insights on what might explain the price increases of vegetable oils in local markets. To do this assessment, we rely on different secondary data sources as well as MAPSA’s food vendor survey conducted in March 2022 in all states/regions of the country. In this survey, 419 food vendors provided information on the sale of vegetable oils. We also rely on information from key informants in the sector.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of healthy diets - December 2021 survey round
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of healthy diets - December 2021 survey round

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2022-02-01

Total Pages: 8

ISBN-13:

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This Research Note presents the results from ten rounds of a telephone survey with food vendors conducted in rural and urban zones throughout Myanmar and focuses on the results from the latest round completed in December 2021. The purpose of the survey is to provide data and insights on Myanmar’s food markets to interested stakeholders to foster better understanding of the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis. In particular, the note explores changes in food prices and their impact on the cost of common and healthy diets.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – July 2023 survey round
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Mechanization service providers – July 2023 survey round

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-09-18

Total Pages: 11

ISBN-13:

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A phone survey was conducted in July 2023 to understand the effects of political instability on Myanmar’s mechanization service providers (MSPs) that are crucial for enabling smallholder farmers to undertake a range of power-intensive farm and post-harvest operations in a timely manner. This note reports on the results of this survey, which is the 11th in a series of phone surveys, as well as on trends from earlier surveys.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – August 2022 survey
Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – August 2022 survey

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2022-11-01

Total Pages: 8

ISBN-13:

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Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.