Momentum Trading, Return Chasing, and Predictable Crashes
Momentum Trading, Return Chasing, and Predictable Crashes

Author: Benjamin Chabot

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13:

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We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies -- momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns -- a three factor alpha of 1 percent per month between 1927 and 2012 and 0.5 percent per month between 1867 and 1907 -- both statistically significantly different from zero. However, the momentum strategy also exposed investors to large losses (crashes) during both periods. Momentum crashes were predictable -- more likely when momentum recently performed well (both eras), interest rates were relatively low (1867-1907), or momentum had recently outperformed the stock market (CRSP era) -- times when borrowing or attracting return chasing "blind capital" would have been easier. Based on a stylized model and simulated outcomes from a richer model, we argue that a money manager has an incentive to remain invested in momentum even when the crash risk is known to be high when (1) he competes for funds from return-chasing investors and (2) he is compensated via fees that are convex in the amount of money managed and the return on that money.

Momentum Crashes
Momentum Crashes

Author: Heinrich Stilling

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2019-10-17

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 3346038300

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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,7, University of Mannheim, language: English, abstract: This paper focuses on the structures and characteristics that underlie the periods of extremely poor momentum performance and sets a special focus on the latest 2009 momentum crash period. It answers questions regarding the momentum portfolio composition during this period and quantitatively evaluates the momentum portfolio, measuring commonly applied performance indicators. The results are then contrasted with a non-crash benchmark period. The momentum strategy is a simple yet powerful trading strategy. Momentum implies that past stock prices can predict future stock price development. According to momentum theory, past winner stocks are likely to continue their good performance while past loser stocks are likely to continue to perform poorly. Hence, applying this strategy, investors buy stocks that have risen in the past the strongest and (short) sell those that have declined in value the most. This very simple decision rule is practically the only important guideline to follow regarding the momentum strategy. Surprisingly and in spite of its simplicity, momentum works and yields high excess returns. Over the 1927 to 2012 period, the portfolio of past winner stocks yields an annualized excess return of 7.157% compared to the market portfolio. Even though momentum usually performs exceptionally well, it does not offer free lunch. In the 1927 to 2012 time frame, there are a few periods of extreme momentum underperformance that could have wiped out some significant wealth. For instance, during the most recent 2009 momentum crash, this strategy would have erased 104.28% of an initial investment in just 3 months.

Cumulative Prospect Theory, Myopic Loss Aversion and Momentum Crashes
Cumulative Prospect Theory, Myopic Loss Aversion and Momentum Crashes

Author: Paul Docherty

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13:

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Momentum strategies generate significant positive returns over long investment horizons; however these strategies experience infrequent periods of large negative returns. These periods are known as 'momentum crashes'. We demonstrate that the probability of a momentum crash is time-varying, increasing following periods of high market return dispersion, a proxy for a change in the market state. Under cumulative prospect theory, investors overweight the probability of a momentum crash when estimating their value function, discounting the current price of "winners" relative to "losers" resulting in positive expected future returns for the momentum strategy. Consistent with this theory, we show that momentum returns are substantially lower and volatility is higher in regimes where the probability of a momentum crash is high. Although momentum crashes are predictable they may not be exploited by institutional investors. Therefore, we argue that the negative (positive) skewness of the return distribution of winner (loser) portfolios is priced and may partly explain the momentum premium.

Trading on Momentum
Trading on Momentum

Author: Ken Wolff

Publisher: McGraw-Hill Companies

Published: 2002

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13:

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The NASDAQ has reached a record 60 new highs in 1999, closing above the 4000 milestone. This record was the icing on the cake to a year of volatile victories for the NASDAQ, which experienced the largest one-year gain ever for a major market index. Momentum has never been more important. For example, the first day of tradingin 2000 saw the NASDAQ dropping close to 100 points before finishing the day with a significant gain, yet on the second day of trading, the NASDAQ experienced its worst point drop in history.

Market Momentum
Market Momentum

Author: Stephen Satchell

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2020-12-02

Total Pages: 448

ISBN-13: 1119599326

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A one-of-a-kind reference guide covering the behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum and the implementation of momentum trading strategies Market Momentum: Theory and Practice is a thorough, how-to reference guide for a full range of financial professionals and students. It examines the behavioral and statistical causes of market momentum while also exploring the practical side of implementing related strategies. The phenomenon of momentum in finance occurs when past high returns are followed by subsequent high returns, and past low returns are followed by subsequent low returns. Market Momentum provides a detailed introduction to the financial topic, while examining existing literature. Recent academic and practitioner research is included, offering a more up-to-date perspective. What type of book is Market Momentum and how does it serve a range of readers’ interests and needs? A holistic market momentum guide for industry professionals, asset managers, risk managers, firm managers, plus hedge fund and commodity trading advisors Advanced text to help graduate students in finance, economics, and mathematics further develop their funds management skills Useful resource for financial practitioners who want to implement momentum trading strategies Reference book providing behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum Due to claims that the phenomenon of momentum goes against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, behavioral economists have studied the topic in-depth. However, many books published on the subject are written to provide advice on how to make money. In contrast, Market Momentum offers a comprehensive approach to the topic, which makes it a valuable resource for both investment professionals and higher-level finance students. The contributors address momentum theory and practice, while also offering trading strategies that practitioners can study.

Quantitative Momentum
Quantitative Momentum

Author: Wesley R. Gray

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-09-13

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 1119237254

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The individual investor's comprehensive guide to momentum investing Quantitative Momentum brings momentum investing out of Wall Street and into the hands of individual investors. In his last book, Quantitative Value, author Wes Gray brought systematic value strategy from the hedge funds to the masses; in this book, he does the same for momentum investing, the system that has been shown to beat the market and regularly enriches the coffers of Wall Street's most sophisticated investors. First, you'll learn what momentum investing is not: it's not 'growth' investing, nor is it an esoteric academic concept. You may have seen it used for asset allocation, but this book details the ways in which momentum stands on its own as a stock selection strategy, and gives you the expert insight you need to make it work for you. You'll dig into its behavioral psychology roots, and discover the key tactics that are bringing both institutional and individual investors flocking into the momentum fold. Systematic investment strategies always seem to look good on paper, but many fall down in practice. Momentum investing is one of the few systematic strategies with legs, withstanding the test of time and the rigor of academic investigation. This book provides invaluable guidance on constructing your own momentum strategy from the ground up. Learn what momentum is and is not Discover how momentum can beat the market Take momentum beyond asset allocation into stock selection Access the tools that ease DIY implementation The large Wall Street hedge funds tend to portray themselves as the sophisticated elite, but momentum investing allows you to 'borrow' one of their top strategies to enrich your own portfolio. Quantitative Momentum is the individual investor's guide to boosting market success with a robust momentum strategy.

Momentum Trading
Momentum Trading

Author: Priyank Gala

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2015-09-29

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 9781517565718

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It is true that momentum trading tends to generate some ups and downs, it may result in a financial market crash, it depends on nature of stock market itself.This book of momentum trading will guide you through following topics: Index: Chapter 1: All about Momentum Trading Chapter 2: How to become a Momentum Trader? Chapter 3: Risks involved with momentum trading Closing on a trade before time Delayed exit from the trade Low levels of focus and concentration Failure to quickly cut losses Going against all momentum trading ethics and holding on to a stock for more than one day Chapter 4: Proper selection of stocks for momentum trading Chapter 5: Optimum time for trading Chapter 6: Why volume is important? Chapter 7: Formulating proper covered calls Chapter 8: Strategy used for momentum trading Chapter 9: A trade going wrong - identifying a situation Chapter 10: Reasons why people choose momentum trading

Momentum Crashes
Momentum Crashes

Author: Kent Daniel

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13:

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Despite their strong positive average returns across numerous asset classes, momentum strategies can experience infrequent and persistent strings of negative returns. These momentum crashes are partly forecastable. They occur in "panic" states - following market declines and when market volatility is high - and are contemporaneous with market rebounds. We show that the low ex-ante expected returns in panic states are consistent with a conditionally high premium attached to the option-like payoffs of past losers. An implementable dynamic momentum strategy based on forecasts of momentum's mean and variance approximately doubles the alpha and Sharpe Ratio of a static momentum strategy, and is not explained by other factors. These results are robust across multiple time periods, international equity markets, and other asset classes.