This new book is the first full account, inside or outside government, of China’s efforts to acquire foreign technology. Based on primary sources and meticulously researched, the book lays bare China’s efforts to prosper technologically through others' achievements. For decades, China has operated an elaborate system to spot foreign technologies, acquire them by all conceivable means, and convert them into weapons and competitive goods—without compensating the owners. The director of the US National Security Agency recently called it "the greatest transfer of wealth in history." Written by two of America's leading government analysts and an expert on Chinese cyber networks, this book describes these transfer processes comprehensively and in detail, providing the breadth and depth missing in other works. Drawing upon previously unexploited Chinese language sources, the authors begin by placing the new research within historical context, before examining the People’s Republic of China’s policy support for economic espionage, clandestine technology transfers, theft through cyberspace and its impact on the future of the US. This book will be of much interest to students of Chinese politics, Asian security studies, US defence, US foreign policy and IR in general.
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
To help the U.S. Air Force assess the resources the government of the People's Republic of China is likely to spend on its military over the next two decades, this study projects future growth in Chinese government expenditures as a whole and the military in particular, evaluates the current and likely future capabilities of China's defense industries, and compares likely future Chinese expenditures on defense with recent expenditures by the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Although economic growth in China is destined to slow, output will still triple by 2025. In addition, government reforms hold the promise of improving the weak performance of China's defense industries. Although the researchers' high-end forecast of military expenditures is based on the assumption that the Chinese government would be able to spend 5.0 percent of GDP on defense, they believe that pressures within China to increase social spending on health care, pensions, education, and the environment, coupled with the costs of paying the Chinese government's liabilities, make it more likely that military spending will not rise above 2.3 percent of GDP. Using a combination of projected market and purchasing power parity exchange rates, the authors forecast that Chinese military spending is likely to rise from an estimated $69 billion in 2003 to $185 billion by 2025-approximately 61 percent of what the Department of Defense spent in 2003.
This unique book intends to provide a focused analysis of the main Chinese industrial sectors through case studies, data analysis and review of new state-initiated policies. In response to the global economic crisis in the short run and to cope with the existing structural problems of production in the long run, the Chinese central government has successively released new development outlines for 10 key industries since 2008. In this book, the authors will use key sectors including automobile, steel, shipbuilding, high-speed railway and new energy, to analyze the development of China's industries, along with their challenges and future prospects.The effectiveness of state-oriented policies in rejuvenating these industries will be evaluated. After discussing the background and motivations for the new government-initiated policies, through detailed analysis of these policies, the authors will assess the contribution they have made to industrial development. The authors will also identify and analyze existing and potential challenges to sustainable development of China's industries.How did the industries respond to climate change and the development of a low-carbon economy in China? What measures have been taken by these industries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and reduce overall energy consumption? What are the latest developments in China's industrial sector in terms of technological progress and upgrading? What are the potential challenges facing the industrial sector in the post-economic crisis era? This study intends to address these issues.
China's future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper. Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world's leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime's power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate? In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China's leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China's future for all those seeking to understand the country's likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.
The book fills an important gap in understanding the process of economic transformation by providing a comprehensive and in-depth micro-level analysis of industrial transition. . . The book is highly recommended for those who are working on or studying the Chinese economic transformation focusing especially on industry and its transition. Ligang Song, Economic Record As the authors admit, the wool industry may seem a rather obscure choice (p. 23). Yet this is a book of interest to a much wider relationship than agro-business specialists. It provides a meticulous case-study of one industry which illuminates a number of broader issues currently under discussion in the China studies field. . . As the Chinese economy becomes more variegated, economists and political scientists trying to understand the Chinese economic reform experience will increasingly have to rely on such studies. They bring out the intricacies of this process and help us to move from across-the-board generalizations on property rights reform to more nuanced analyses of economic transition. Björn Alpermann, The China Journal China defies generalizations, and the only way that we can hope to obtain a clear idea of the process of reform is through detailed studies, that trace the complex ebb and flow of reforms, including the interactions between centre and locality, and between the stages of the processing. This is a valuable study that will stand the test of time. Will Martin, The World Bank, US This book is more than yet another industry report . This is a book on transition. It describes the mega-forces privatization; state-owned enterprise reform; internationalization; increasing competition and their mega-consequences the proliferation of small, private traders; the diversification of the process sector; the disintegration of government agencies and private initiatives that had been in charge of coordinating and managing quality that not only affected the wool sector, but are literally re-defining the fabric of China s economy. For those interested in trying to better understand the fastest growing economy in the world, this is a must read. Neither the authors competence in wool technology nor their description of the institutional details of the wool economy gets in the way of their main message. Powerful economic forces are at work in China. In some cases there are positive benefits through competitive and improved incentives. In other cases, however, there is a cost in terms of rising transaction costs, imperfect information and the inability to rationalize the evolving supply chains. Scott Rozelle, University of California, US China is the world s largest producer and consumer of wool textiles but the structure of its industry remains confusing and complex to many. While China offers the most important growth opportunity in the world today, the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy has compounded the difficulties and risks for many traders and investors wishing to deal with and in this market. This publication makes a major contribution towards unravelling the complexity of Chinese industrial structures through its review of recent changes to one of China s oldest but still significant manufacturing sectors, the wool textile industry. The lessons learned through this study will be relevant to anyone wishing to understand China s industrial modernization processes. Barry White, Chief Executive Officer, International Fibre Council (IFC) Ltd, Director, Australia China Business Council Exposed to powerful new economic forces, and undergoing dramatic ownership reforms and technological changes, China s industries are modernizing at a breakneck pace. In many industries, the outcomes have been chaotic and poorly aligned with societal objectives. This book analyses the transformation and modernization of China s industries through a detailed investigation of the wool and wool textile industries. The authors argue that to remai
As a window for understanding the relationship between globalization and the state's pursuit of national industrial development, this book examines how and why the Chinese government succeeded in leveraging China's international competitive advantages to modernize the country's automotive industry.
The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China's rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China's growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite its current 'backward' financial system and political institutions. Conversely, China's spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream 'blackboard' economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Africa's enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America's lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe's great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself.
Fortifying China explores the titanic struggle to turn China into an aspiring world-class military technological power. The defense economy is leveraging the country's vibrant civilian economy and gaining access to foreign sources of technology and know-how. Drawing on extensive Chinese-language sources, Tai Ming Cheung explains that this transformation has two key dimensions. The defense economy is being reengineered to break down bureaucratic barriers and reduce the role of the state, fostering a more competitive and entrepreneurial culture to facilitate the rapid diffusion and absorption of technology and knowledge. At the same time, the civilian and defense economies are being integrated to form a dual-use technological and industrial base. In Cheung's view, the Chinese authorities believe this strategy will play a key role in supporting long-term defense modernization. For China's neighbors and the United States, understanding China's technological, industrial, and military capabilities is critical to the formulation of economic and security policies. Fortifying China provides crucial insight into the impact of China's dual-use technology strategy. Cheung's "systems of innovation" framework considers the structure, dynamics, and performance of the defense economy from a systems-level perspective.
This book studies the process of economic and industrial development in the Republic of China (1912-1949), in the hope of shedding light on how China came to be a comparative economic laggard in the period, especially in comparison to Japan. Backed up by extensive industrial statistical data gathered and rigorously analyzed by the author, this book stands out from previous research that has been limited to theoretical inferences and general judgments with scarce empirical evidence. So, far from being a purely historical review of China's industrial development, this book focuses on the internal logic of economic phenomena, especially the relationship among economic variables reflected in economic data, and it offers discussions within the framework of economic development theory. The author uses multivariate statistical analysis to draw comparisons between the industrial development of China and that of Japan, focusing on outbound investment and its importance for economic growth. This book will appeal to academics and general readers interested in the economic development and modern economic history of East Asia, as well as development economics and industrial and technological history.
