Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects
Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects

Author: Yuri G. Raydugin

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2020-07-16

Total Pages: 275

ISBN-13: 019258264X

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Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error. The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.

Project Risk Quantification
Project Risk Quantification

Author: John K. Hollmann

Publisher:

Published: 2016-06-28

Total Pages: 416

ISBN-13: 9781941075029

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Project Risk Quantification presents the most practical, realistic, and integrated approach to project cost and schedule Risk Quantification that is available today. It offers proven, empirically-valid methods and tools applicable to projects of all types and at all decision gates. The text is written for both the manager and the risk analysis practitioner. It will bring reliable accuracy and contingency determination to your capital project organization.

Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis
Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis

Author: Vajjhala, Narasimha Rao

Publisher: IGI Global

Published: 2022-06-24

Total Pages: 356

ISBN-13: 1668452812

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Risks can be identified, evaluated, and mitigated, but the underlying uncertainty remains elusive. Risk is present across all industries and sectors. As a result, organizations and governments worldwide are currently experiencing higher levels of risk and have had to make risky decisions during times of crisis and instability, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and climate perils, and global tensions surrounding terrorism. It is essential that new studies are undertaken to understand strategies taken during these times to better equip business leaders to navigate risk management in the future. Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis examines the impact of crises including the COVID-19 pandemic, which has tested organizational risk and contingency management plans. It provides significant insights that should benefit business leaders on risk and contingency management in times of crisis. It emphasizes strategies that leaders can undertake to identify potential future risks and examines decisions made in past crises that can act as examples of what to do and what not to do during future crisis events. Covering topics such as auditing theories, risk assessment, and educational inequality, this premier reference source is a crucial resource for business leaders, executives, managers, decision makers, policymakers, students, government officials, entrepreneurs, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

Identifying and Managing Project Risk
Identifying and Managing Project Risk

Author: Tom Kendrick

Publisher: AMACOM

Published: 2009-02-27

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 0814413412

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Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.

Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation
Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation

Author: Prince Boateng

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2017-04-28

Total Pages: 371

ISBN-13: 1787143015

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Providing new knowledge on risk analysis and simulation for megaprojects, this book is essential reading for both academics and practitioners. Its focus is on technical descriptions of a newly developed dynamic systems approach to megaproject risk analysis and simulation.

Contemporary Approaches in Urbanism and Heritage Studies
Contemporary Approaches in Urbanism and Heritage Studies

Author: Rokhsaneh Rahbarianyazd , Editor

Publisher: Cinius Yayınları

Published: 2021-08-01

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 6257472385

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This book is an intellectuaJ discourse and a concise compendium of current research in Architecture and Urbanism. Primarily, it is a book of readings of 24 chapters. The book brings together theories, manifestos and methodologies on contemporary architecture and urbanism to raise the understanding tor the futu re of architectur and urban planning. Ovcrall, the book aimed to establislı a bıidge between theory and practice in the built environment. Thus. it reports on the lalesi research fındings and innovative approaches. methodologies for creating, assessing. and understanding of contemporary built environment.

Impact of recession on freight transport of UK
Impact of recession on freight transport of UK

Author: Shweta Sharma

Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing

Published: 2014-06-11

Total Pages: 94

ISBN-13: 3659556696

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An interesting study of risk identification related to the recent recession which hit UK in the third quarter of 2008.Recession not only accentuated certain risks already existing in freight transport in the past but also led to the emergence of new ones during and post-recession. This research is thus an attempt to identify and assess the risks faced by freight companies during recession and suggest mitigation strategies to deal with such risks in future. The study reveals that risks related to recession will become more intense in future, however preparedness and tested mitigation strategies can help to lessen or nullify their impact on freight companies.

Managing and Modelling Complex Projects
Managing and Modelling Complex Projects

Author: T.M. Williams

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2013-12-20

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 9400900619

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Projects are becoming more complex and traditional project management is proving inadequate. The key papers in this volume, which takes a look at a variety of new approaches, have been written by 13 leading figures and are discussed by 54 invited academics, consultants, contractors and clients from 15 countries. The papers cover modelling techniques (extensions to PERT methods, risk analysis, and system dynamics), particular domains (new technology, software development and infrastructure projects, specifically human factors), corporate structures (from both Western and Eastern European perspectives), management techniques (Western and Eastern), and the management of portfolios of projects. The book adopts a wide view, rather than advocating one technique: the mix of authors provides a rich, heterogeneous perspective. Mathematical modelling is balanced with human management, and over-complex of simplistic techniques are avoided. Readers are assumed already to have a sound knowledge of project management.