This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
This publication analyses recent development in migration movements and policies in OECD countries and some non member countries including migration of highly qualified and low qualified workers, temporary and permanent, as well as students.
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.
The frequency with which people move home has important implications for national economic performance and the well-being of individuals and families. Much contemporary social and migration theory posits that the world is becoming more mobile, leading to the recent ‘mobilities turn’ within the social sciences. Yet, there is mounting evidence to suggest that this may not be true of all types of mobility, nor apply equally to all geographical contexts. For example, it is now clear that internal migration rates have been falling in the USA since at least the 1980s. To what extent might this trend be true of other developed countries? Drawing on detailed empirical literature, Internal Migration in the Developed World examines the long-term trends in internal migration in a variety of more advanced countries to explore the factors that underpin these changes. Using case studies of the USA, UK, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Germany and Italy, this pioneering book presents a critical assessment of the extent to which global structural forces, as opposed to national context, influence internal migration in the Global North. Internal Migration in the Developed World fills the void in this neglected aspect of migration studies and will appeal to a wide disciplinary audience of researchers and students working in Geography, Migration Studies, Population Studies and Development Studies.
This comprehensive handbook provides an overview and update of the issues, theories, processes, and applications of the social science of population studies. The volume's 30 chapters cover the full range of conceptual, empirical, disciplinary, and applied approaches to the study of demographic phenomena. This book is the first effort to assess the entire field since Hauser and Duncan's 1959 classic, The Study of Population. The chapter authors are among the leading contributors to demographic scholarship over the past four decades. They represent a variety of disciplines and theoretical perspectives as well as interests in both basic and applied research.
The market for high-skilled workers is becoming increasingly global, as are the markets for knowledge and ideas. While high-skilled immigrants in the United States represent a much smaller proportion of the workforce than they do in countries such as Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom, these immigrants have an important role in spurring innovation and economic growth in all countries and filling shortages in the domestic labor supply. This report summarizes the proceedings of a Fall 2014 workshop that focused on how immigration policy can be used to attract and retain foreign talent. Participants compared policies on encouraging migration and retention of skilled workers, attracting qualified foreign students and retaining them post-graduation, and input by states or provinces in immigration policies to add flexibility in countries with regional employment differences, among other topics. They also discussed how immigration policies have changed over time in response to undesired labor market outcomes and whether there was sufficient data to measure those outcomes.
This book arose from an inaugural conference on Migration Law and Policy at the ANU College of Law. The conference brought together academics and practitioners from a diverse range of disciplines and practice. The book is based on a selection of the papers and presentations given during that conference. Each explores the unexpected, unwanted and sometimes tragic outcomes of migration law and policy, identifying ambiguities, uncertainties, and omissions affecting both temporary and permanent migrants. Together, the papers present a myriad of perspectives, providing a sense of urgency that focuses on the immediate and political consequences of an Australian migration milieu created without due consideration and exposing the daily reality under the migration program for individuals and for society as a whole.
