Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty
Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty

Author: Thomas L. Vincent

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-03-08

Total Pages: 329

ISBN-13: 3642933653

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This vol ume contains the proceedings of the second U. S. -Austral ia workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9-12, 1985. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Department of Science and Technology (Austral ia) under the U. S. -Austral ia Cooperative Science Program. The objective of the workshop was to focus on problems associated with the management of renewable resource systems. A particular emphasis was given to methods for handling uncertain elements whieh are present in any real system. Toward this end, the partiei pants were chosen so that the collective expertise included mathematical modeling, dynamical control/game theory, ecology, and practical management of real systems. Each participant was invited to give an informal presentation in his field of expertise as related to the overall theme. The formal papers (contained in this vo 1 ume) were written after the workshop so that the authors coul d util ize the workshop experience in relating their own work to others. To further encourage this exchange, each paper contained in this volume was reviewed by two other participants who then wrote formal comments. These comments (with author's reply in some cases) are attached to the end of each paper.

Groundwater Quality Modeling and Management Under Uncertainty
Groundwater Quality Modeling and Management Under Uncertainty

Author: Srikanta Mishra

Publisher:

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 352

ISBN-13:

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This collection contains 30 peer-reviewed papers presented at a symposium, Probabilistic Approaches and Groundwater Modeling, at the 2003 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 24-26, 2003.

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Author: Karin Riley

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-12-12

Total Pages: 356

ISBN-13: 1119027861

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Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach
Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach

Author: Bilal Ayyub

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 1997-10-31

Total Pages: 414

ISBN-13: 9780792380306

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Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.

A mathematical model for resource allocation in emergency situations with the co-operation of NGOs under uncertainty
A mathematical model for resource allocation in emergency situations with the co-operation of NGOs under uncertainty

Author: Deepshikha Sarma

Publisher: Infinite Study

Published:

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13:

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Several times people on the earth are aicted by the strike of unpredictable phenomena like a disaster. Although some non-governmental organization (NGO) involving in disaster relief operation, prepositioned some resources in disaster-prone areas, but it is not sucient for all times. Sometimes, due to the high intensive devastation, help for providing relief is requested to the other national or international aid. This research has introduced a mathematical model for humanitarian logistic considering two optimization criteria minimize the total cost and total time of the relief logistic operation with a collaboration of resource collection by the NGOs.

Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems
Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems

Author: Shreeda Maskey

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2004-11-23

Total Pages: 184

ISBN-13: 0203026829

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Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.

Groundwater Resources Modelling
Groundwater Resources Modelling

Author: M. G. Shepley

Publisher: Geological Society of London

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 400

ISBN-13: 9781862393448

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The UK is a country with over 150 years of widespread exploitation of its principal aquifers for public water supply. Increasing demands, greater awareness of environmental pressures and more exacting legislation has heightened the need for quantitative models to predict the impacts of groundwater use. In the UK this has culminated in a unique national, regulator-led programme for England and Wales to develop conceptual and numerical models of the principal bedrock aquifers. The outcomes of this programme will be of interest to the international hydrogeological community, particularly as international legislation such as the European Water Framework Directive requires management of water issues across administrative boundaries with a varied cast of stakeholders. The collection of papers provides a contrast between practitioner- and research-based approaches to assess and predict the anthropogenic impacts and environmental pressures.

Bioeconomic Modelling and Valuation of Exploited Marine Ecosystems
Bioeconomic Modelling and Valuation of Exploited Marine Ecosystems

Author: J.C.J.M. van den Bergh

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-06-19

Total Pages: 261

ISBN-13: 1402040598

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This book offers an environmental-economic analysis of exploited ecosystems with a clear policy orientation. The study moves beyond traditional economic fishery analysis in two respects. First, several theoretical and numerical models are offered that combine economic and ecological descriptions of fisheries. Second, valuation and stakeholder concerns are addressed in empirical analyses employing both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The approaches, models and policy insights are sufficiently general and innovative to interest a broad audience.