A guide to the validation and risk management of quantitative models used for pricing and hedging Whereas the majority of quantitative finance books focus on mathematics and risk management books focus on regulatory aspects, this book addresses the elements missed by this literature--the risks of the models themselves. This book starts from regulatory issues, but translates them into practical suggestions to reduce the likelihood of model losses, basing model risk and validation on market experience and on a wide range of real-world examples, with a high level of detail and precise operative indications.
Get up to speed on identifying and tackling model risk! Managing Model Risk provides data science practitioners, business professionals and analytics managers with a comprehensive guide to understand and tackle the fundamental concept of analytical model risk in terms of data, model specification, model development, model validation, model operationalization, model security and model management. Providing state of the art industry and research insights based on the author''s extensive experience, this illustrated textbook has a well-balanced theory-practice focus and covers all essential topics. Key Features: Extensive coverage of important trending topics and their risk impact on analytical models, starting from the raw data up until the operationalization, security and management. Various examples and case studies to highlight the topics discussed. Key references to background literature for further clarification. An online website with various add-ons and recent developments: www.managingmodelriskbook.com. What Makes this Book Different? This book is based on both authors having worked in analytics for more than 30 years combined, both in industry and academia. Both authors have co-authored more than 300 scientific publications on analytics and machine learning and have worked with firms in different industries, including (online) retailers, financial institutions, manufacturing firms, insurance providers, governments, etc. all over the globe estimating, deploying and validating analytical models. Throughout this time, we have read many books about analytical modeling and data science, which are typically written from the perspective of a theorist, providing lots of details with regards to different model algorithms and related mathematics, but with limited attention being given to how such models are used in practice. If such concerns are tackled, it is mainly from an implementation, use case or data engineering perspective. From our own experience, however, we have encountered many cases where analytics, AI, machine learning etc. fail in organizations, even with skilled people working on them, due to a myriad of reasons: bad data quality, difficulties in terms of model deployment, lack of model buy-in, incorrect definitions of underlying goals, wrong evaluation metrics, unrealistic expectations and many other issues can arise which cause models to fail in practice. Most of these issues have nothing to do with the actual algorithm being used to construct the model, but rather with everything else surrounding it: data, governance, maintenance, business, management, the economy, budgeting, culture etc. As such, we wanted to offer a new perspective with this book: it aims to provide a unique mix of both practical and research-based insights and report on do''s and don''ts for model risk management. Model risk issues are not only highlighted but also recommendations are given on how to deal with them, where possible. Target Audience This book is targeted towards everyone who has previously been exposed to both predictive and descriptive analytics. The reader should hence have some basic understanding of the analytics process model, the key activities of data preprocessing, the steps involved in developing a predictive analytics model (using e.g. linear or logistic regression, decision trees, etc.) and a descriptive analytics model (using e.g. association or sequence rules or clustering techniques). It is also important to be aware of how an analytical model can be properly evaluated, both in terms of accuracy and interpretation. This book aims to offer a comprehensive guide for both data scientists as well as (C-level) executives and data science or engineering leads, decision-makers and managers who want to know the key underlying concepts of analytical model risk.
Cut through the complexity of model risk management with a guide to solutions from SAS! There is an increasing demand for more model governance and model risk awareness. At the same time, high-performing models are expected to be deployed faster than ever. SAS Model Risk Management is a user-friendly, web-based application that facilitates the capture and life cycle management of statistical model-related information. It enables all stakeholders in the model life cycle — developers, validators, internal audit, and management – to get overview reports as well as detailed information in one central place. Model Risk Management with SAS introduces you to the features and capabilities of this software, including the entry, collection, transfer, storage, tracking, and reporting of models that are drawn from multiple lines of business across an organization. This book teaches key concepts, terminology, and base functionality that are integral to SAS Model Risk Management through hands-on examples and demonstrations. With this guide to SAS Model Risk Management, your organization can be confident it is making fact-based decisions and mitigating model risk.
The book aims to provide solutions on how to include model risk into existing risk measurement frameworks. It also aims to provide solutions on how to build models of higher accuracy and thus lower model risk.
Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues An accompanying FTP site—developed with Professor Joost Santos—that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.
A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.
Credit risk remains one of the major risks faced by most financial and credit institutions. It is deeply connected to the real economy due to the systemic nature of some banks, but also because well-managed lending facilities are key for wealth creation and technological innovation. This book is a collection of innovative papers in the field of credit risk management. Besides the probability of default (PD), the major driver of credit risk is the loss given default (LGD). In spite of its central importance, LGD modeling remains largely unexplored in the academic literature. This book proposes three contributions in the field. Ye & Bellotti exploit a large private dataset featuring non-performing loans to design a beta mixture model. Their model can be used to improve recovery rate forecasts and, therefore, to enhance capital requirement mechanisms. François uses instead the price of defaultable instruments to infer the determinants of market-implied recovery rates and finds that macroeconomic and long-term issuer specific factors are the main determinants of market-implied LGDs. Cheng & Cirillo address the problem of modeling the dependency between PD and LGD using an original, urn-based statistical model. Fadina & Schmidt propose an improvement of intensity-based default models by accounting for ambiguity around both the intensity process and the recovery rate. Another topic deserving more attention is trade credit, which consists of the supplier providing credit facilities to his customers. Whereas this is likely to stimulate exchanges in general, it also magnifies credit risk. This is a difficult problem that remains largely unexplored. Kanapickiene & Spicas propose a simple but yet practical model to assess trade credit risk associated with SMEs and microenterprises operating in Lithuania. Another topical area in credit risk is counterparty risk and all other adjustments (such as liquidity and capital adjustments), known as XVA. Chataignier & Crépey propose a genetic algorithm to compress CVA and to obtain affordable incremental figures. Anagnostou & Kandhai introduce a hidden Markov model to simulate exchange rate scenarios for counterparty risk. Eventually, Boursicot et al. analyzes CoCo bonds, and find that they reduce the total cost of debt, which is positive for shareholders. In a nutshell, all the featured papers contribute to shedding light on various aspects of credit risk management that have, so far, largely remained unexplored.
Using the factor analysis of information risk (FAIR) methodology developed over ten years and adopted by corporations worldwide, Measuring and Managing Information Risk provides a proven and credible framework for understanding, measuring, and analyzing information risk of any size or complexity. Intended for organizations that need to either build a risk management program from the ground up or strengthen an existing one, this book provides a unique and fresh perspective on how to do a basic quantitative risk analysis. Covering such key areas as risk theory, risk calculation, scenario modeling, and communicating risk within the organization, Measuring and Managing Information Risk helps managers make better business decisions by understanding their organizational risk. - Uses factor analysis of information risk (FAIR) as a methodology for measuring and managing risk in any organization. - Carefully balances theory with practical applicability and relevant stories of successful implementation. - Includes examples from a wide variety of businesses and situations presented in an accessible writing style.
Every day in the United States, over two million men, women, and children step onto an aircraft and place their lives in the hands of strangers. As anyone who has ever flown knows, modern flight offers unparalleled advantages in travel and freedom, but it also comes with grave responsibility and risk. For the first time in its history, the Federal Aviation Administration has put together a set of easy-to-understand guidelines and principles that will help pilots of any skill level minimize risk and maximize safety while in the air. The Risk Management Handbook offers full-color diagrams and illustrations to help students and pilots visualize the science of flight, while providing straightforward information on decision-making and the risk-management process.
