Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania
Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania

Author: Mantas Dirma

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-10-27

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13:

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Despite having introduced borrower-based measures (BBM), Lithuania's housing and mortgage markets were booming during the low-interest-rate period, casting doubt on the macroprudential toolkit's ability to contain excessive mortgage growth. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBMs’ parametrization in Lithuania. We do so by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the preregulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that (1) in the low-rate environment, income-based measures could have been tighter; and (2) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment.

Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database
Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database

Author: Zohair Alam

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-22

Total Pages: 57

ISBN-13: 149830270X

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This paper introduces a new comprehensive database of macroprudential policies, which combines information from various sources and covers 134 countries from January 1990 to December 2016. Using these data, we first confirm that loan-targeted instruments have a significant impact on household credit, and a milder, dampening effect on consumption. Next, we exploit novel numerical information on loan-to-value (LTV) limits using a propensity-score-based method to address endogeneity concerns. The results point to economically significant and nonlinear effects, with a declining impact for larger tightening measures. Moreover, the initial LTV level appears to matter; when LTV limits are already tight, the effects of additional tightening on credit is dampened while those on consumption are strengthened.

Luxembourg
Luxembourg

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-06-24

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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Strong policy support and high financial buffers are helping the financial sector weather the consecutive shocks, but pre-pandemic vulnerabilities have continued to rise. Ultra loose financial conditions, in part as a consequence of ECB’s monetary policy, have contributed to increased households’ indebtedness and stretched asset prices. Specifically, real estate prices had grown rapidly over 2018–22 with signs of overvaluation. Households’ indebtedness continued to rise, although partly mitigated by high households’ net wealth. These mounting real estate vulnerabilities prompted measures from the authorities, including on the macroprudential front, that bolstered the resilience of the banking sector but had mixed effects on the risk profile of new mortgages. The average LTV has dropped but the impact on DSTI and DTI has been more muted.

Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data
Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data

Author: Erlend Nier

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-08-22

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1513509098

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We provide empirical evidence to support the calibration of a limit on household indebtedness levels, in the form of a cap on the debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratio, in order to reduce the probability of borrower defaults in Romania. The analysis establishes two findings that are new to the literature. First, we show that the relationship between DSTI and probability of default is non-linear, with probability of default responding to increases in DSTI only after a certain threshold. Second, we establish that consumer loan defaults occur at lower levels of DSTI compared to mortgages. Our results support the recent regulation adopted by the National Bank of Romania, limiting the household DSTI at origination to 40 percent for new mortgages and consumer loans. Our counterfactual analysis indicates that had the limit been in place for all the loans in our sample, the probability of default (PD) would have been lower by 23 percent.

Spain
Spain

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-08

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13:

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The macroprudential policy framework in Spain has been significantly reinforced in recent years. A new macroprudential authority, Macroprudential Authority Financial Stability Council, (AMCESFI), has been established in Spain, to provide high level oversight and to strengthen internal coordination on the identification, prevention, and mitigation of systemic risks in the financial system. Techniques and approaches for systemic risk identification have been further enhanced. And gaps in the macroprudential policy toolkit identified by the previous FSAP have been closed, although to date the new tools have not been applied given the assessment of risks. The framework incorporates many areas of strength by international standards, such as the techniques for systemic risk identification and the breadth of permissible macroprudential tools.

Maldives
Maldives

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-01-19

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13:

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The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) is the entity responsible for maintaining financial stability. The Board of the monetary authority has decision-making powers over MMA’s three mandates (in order of priority): maintain price stability, maintain financial stability, provide assistance to the government in attaining economic development and stability. To maintain financial stability, MMA regulates and supervises the financial institutions and oversees the payments and settlements system. It also houses a Credit Information Bureau (CIB), a key element for both micro and macroprudential supervision. The securities market, outside of the scope of MMA, is regulated by the Capital Market Development Authority (CMDA).

Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance
Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance

Author: El Bachir Boukherouaa

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-10-22

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 1589063953

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This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy
Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy

Author: Mr.Nicolas Arregui

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-07-17

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13: 1484335724

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The paper proposes a simple, new, analytical framework for assessing the cost and benefits of macroprudential policies. It proposes a measure of net benefits in terms of parameters that can be estimated: the probability of crisis, the loss in output given crisis, policy effectiveness in bringing down both the probability and damage during crisis, and the output-cost of a policy decision. It discusses three types of policy leakages and identifies instruments that could best minimize the leakages. Some rules of thumb for policymakers are provided.

Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper
Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-10-06

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 1498341713

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The countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) was proposed by the Basel committee to increase the resilience of the banking sector to negative shocks. The interactions between banking sector losses and the real economy highlight the importance of building a capital buffer in periods when systemic risks are rising. Basel III introduces a framework for a time-varying capital buffer on top of the minimum capital requirement and another time-invariant buffer (the conservation buffer). The CCB aims to make banks more resilient against imbalances in credit markets and thereby enhance medium-term prospects of the economy—in good times when system-wide risks are growing, the regulators could impose the CCB which would help the banks to withstand losses in bad times.

Global Waves of Debt
Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.