Measuring the Risk of default in six highly indebted countries

Measuring the Risk of default in six highly indebted countries

Author: Marc Chesney

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13:

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The risk that the debtor country will default on its external debt may be significantly decreased by a debt-reduction operation, by a reduction in international interest rates, and by changes in the country's willingness to pay.


An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

Author: Mrs.Lynn Aylward

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-03-01

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1451979894

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While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differences between the Fund and other providers of financial resources, this paper considers whether it is possible to distinguish through logit analysis between the countries that make timely repayments to the Fund and those that become overdue. The paper finds that the inclusion of Fund-specific financial variables and a small number of macroeconomic variables yields a highly significant econometric model of the probability of a country incurring Fund arrears.


A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

Author: Thordur Jonasson

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-06

Total Pages: 133

ISBN-13: 1484350545

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This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.


Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-08-01

Total Pages: 128

ISBN-13: 1475505531

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This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.


Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.


Options for Reshaping the Railway

Options for Reshaping the Railway

Author: Neil E. Moyer

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 75

ISBN-13:

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Changing transport demands and growing competition from trucks, autos, and air transport are forcing the monolithic railway to change. Options for change must be adapted to different national and other circumstances, with a suitable tradeoff between efficiency of production and effectiveness in meeting market needs.


Listening to Firms

Listening to Firms

Author: Andrew H. W. Stone

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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Firm-level surveys reveal information central to formulating policy advice and projects to promote private sector development, often challenging conventional wisdom. This common sense guide suggests how to do surveys well.