Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy

Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy

Author: Carlo Altavilla

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13:

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We study the information flow from the ECB on policy dates since its inception, using tick data. We show that three factors capture about all of the variation in the yield curve but that these are different factors with different variance shares in the window that contains the policy decision announcement and the window that contains the press conference. We also show that the QE-related policy factor has been dominant in the recent period and that Forward Guidance and QE effects have been very persistent on the longer-end of the yield curve. We further show that broad and banking stock indices' responses to monetary policy surprises depended on the perceived nature of the surprises. We find no evidence of asymmetric responses of financial markets to positive and negative surprises, in contrast to the literature on asymmetric real effects of monetary policy. Lastly, we show how to implement our methodology for any policy-related news release, such as policymaker speeches. To carry out the analysis, we construct the Euro Area Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (EA-MPD). This database, which contains intraday asset price changes around the policy decision announcement as well as around the press conference, is a contribution on its own right and we expect it to be the standard in monetary policy research for the euro area.


Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission in a Structural Dynamic Factor Model

Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission in a Structural Dynamic Factor Model

Author: Matteo Barigozzi

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 9789279192258

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"We study the effects of euro area common monetary policy by means of a structural dynamic factor model estimated on a large panel of euro area quarterly series. While we estimate a flat response of prices to a monetary policy shock, which we explain as aggregation of heterogeneous country-specific responses, we find no relevant asymmetries between countries in terms of output reaction. However, for both Spain and Italy, we find asymmetries in consumption, investment and unemployment. The introduction of the single currency in 1999 has helped reducing asymmetries in price responses but not in consumption and investment."--Publication information page.


Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Author: Otmar Issing

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2001-07-26

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 9780521788885

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A non-technical analysis of the monetary policy strategy, institutions and operational procedures of the Eurosystem, first published in 2001.


Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area

Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area

Author: Ignazio Angeloni

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2003-12-04

Total Pages: 515

ISBN-13: 1139438816

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This 2003 book offers the most systematic analysis available of the impact of European Central Bank monetary policy on the national economies of the Eurozone. Analysing macro and micro-economic evidence, with chapters by central bank economists, including a discussion chapter by eminent macroeconomists, it is an essential contribution to research on the subject.


Euro Area Money Demand

Euro Area Money Demand

Author: Mr.Alessandro Calza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2001-11-01

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781451859034

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The existence of a well-specified and stable relationship between money and prices has long been perceived as a prerequisite for the use of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the stability of euro area money demand by constructing an own rate of return on euro area M3 and by analyzing its implications in a standard money demand system. Over the sample period, one cointegrating vector relating real M3, real GDP and the spread between the short-term interest rate and the own rate of M3 can be identified and interpreted as a long-run euro area money demand equation. A dynamic money demand system is subsequently estimated. Standard diagnostics stability tests and out-of-sample forecasts confirm the good statistical performance of the model.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area

How Loose, How Tight? A Measure of Monetary and Fiscal Stance for the Euro Area

Author: Nicoletta Batini

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-06-05

Total Pages: 75

ISBN-13: 1513546082

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This paper builds a model-based dynamic monetary and fiscal conditions index (DMFCI) and uses it to examine the evolution of the joint stance of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area (EA) and in its three largest member countries over the period 2007-2018. The index is based on the relative impacts of monetary and fiscal policy on demand using actual and simulated data from rich estimated models featuring also financial intermediaries and long-term government debt. The analysis highlights a short-lived fiscal expansion in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a quick tightening, with monetary policy left to be the “only game in town” after 2013. Individual countries’ DMFCIs show that national policy stances did not always mirror the evolution of the aggregate stance at the EA level, due to heterogeneity in the fiscal stance.


Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-10-29

Total Pages: 120

ISBN-13: 1451812981

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This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability, including the reduction in the distortions of savings and investment behavior that stem from the interaction between nominal tax systems and inflation. It then goes on to evaluate arguments for maintaining a small positive inflation rate in the context of the euro area.


Staff Report on the Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area; Supplement Updating Information on Economic and Financial Developments in the Euro Area; Public Information Notice following Consultation; Statement by the Executive Director on Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area.

Staff Report on the Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area; Supplement Updating Information on Economic and Financial Developments in the Euro Area; Public Information Notice following Consultation; Statement by the Executive Director on Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area.

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2001-11-06

Total Pages: 63

ISBN-13: 1451812973

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A series of adverse supply and demand shocks have brought the euro area’s three-year expansion to a virtual standstill. Buoyant labor markets, which have been the hallmark of the recovery since 1997, have succumbed only gradually to the slowing of output growth. The slowdown has been pervasive throughout the area, albeit unevenly and with different cyclical implications. Recent travails notwithstanding, the second half of the 1990s saw a significant improvement in the macroeconomic performance of the euro area.