Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account

Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account

Author: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1992-09-01

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1451959044

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The relationship between current account developments and changes in the macroeconomic environment remains a key issue in open economy macroeconomics. This paper extends the standard intertemporal optimizing model of the current account to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on private savings behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government expenditure, the greater is the precautionary demand for savings and, other things equal, the larger is the current account surplus. Empirical support for the model is found using quarterly data from four large industrial countries.


Macroeconomics for Professionals

Macroeconomics for Professionals

Author: Leslie Lipschitz

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2019-01-23

Total Pages: 312

ISBN-13: 1108568467

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Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2009-12-16

Total Pages: 402

ISBN-13: 1135179778

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.


Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling

Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling

Author: Charles F. Manski

Publisher:

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 62

ISBN-13:

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Econometric analyses of treatment response commonly use instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. Yet the credibility of IV assumptions is often a matter of considerable disagreement, with much debate about whether some covariate is or is not a "valid instrument" in an application of interest. There is therefore good reason to consider weaker but more credible assumptions. assumptions. To this end, we introduce monotone instrumental variable (MIV) A particularly interesting special case of an MIV assumption is monotone treatment selection (MTS). IV and MIV assumptions may be imposed alone or in combination with other assumptions. We study the identifying power of MIV assumptions in three informational settings: MIV alone; MIV combined with the classical linear response assumption; MIV combined with the monotone treatment response (MTR) assumption. We apply the results to the problem of inference on the returns to schooling. We analyze wage data reported by white male respondents to the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and use the respondent's AFQT score as an MIV. We find that this MIV assumption has little identifying power when imposed alone. However combining the MIV assumption with the MTR and MTS assumptions yields fairly tight bounds on two distinct measures of the returns to schooling.


The Risks of Financial Institutions

The Risks of Financial Institutions

Author: Mark Carey

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 669

ISBN-13: 0226092984

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Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system. Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.


Handbook of International Economics

Handbook of International Economics

Author: G.M. Grossman

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 1995-12-13

Total Pages: 904

ISBN-13: 9780444815477

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This reference accords recognition to the recent revolution in macroeconomics wrought by imperfect competition. Grossman and Rogoff (Princeton U.) present chapters by two dozen contributors on two prime areas of research interest: international trade theory and policy (e.g. strategic trade patterns and policies, the relationship between trade and technological progress), and open economy macroeconomics and international finance (covering such topics as exchange rates, foreign lending, and policy coordination). The volume commences with Krugman's overview of the positive theory of international trade, and concludes with analyses of sovereign debt. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR.


Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics

Exercises in Intertemporal Open Economy Macroeconomics

Author: Thomas H. Krueger

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 186

ISBN-13: 9780262611305

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This exercise manual has been revised to be a companion volume to the third edition of "Fiscal Policies and the World Economy" by Jacob Frenkel and Assaf Razin. It includes new material on endogenous growth, convergence, and an extension of the Mundell-Flemming model.


Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging

Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging

Author: John Piggott

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2016-11-21

Total Pages: 1080

ISBN-13: 0444634045

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Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging synthesizes the economic literature on aging and the subjects associated with it, including social insurance and healthcare costs, both of which are of interest to policymakers and academics. These volumes, the first of a new subseries in the Handbooks in Economics, describe and analyze scholarship created since the inception of serious attention began in the late 1970s, including information from general economics journals, from various field journals in economics, especially, but not exclusively, those covering labor markets and human resource issues, from interdisciplinary social science and life science journals, and from papers by economists published in journals associated with gerontology, history, sociology, political science, and demography, amongst others. - Dissolves the barriers between policymakers and scholars by presenting comprehensive portraits of social and theoretical issues - Synthesizes valuable data on the topic from a variety of journals dating back to the late 1970s in a convenient, comprehensive resource - Presents diverse perspectives on subjects that can be closely associated with national and regional concerns - Offers comprehensive, critical reviews and expositions of the essential aspects of the economics of population aging


Robustness

Robustness

Author: Lars Peter Hansen

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2016-06-28

Total Pages: 453

ISBN-13: 0691170975

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The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.