A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks
A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks

Author: Mr.Nassim N. Taleb

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-08-01

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1475505663

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This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.

Quantifying Systemic Risk
Quantifying Systemic Risk

Author: Joseph G. Haubrich

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2013-01-24

Total Pages: 286

ISBN-13: 0226319288

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In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.

Volatility
Volatility

Author: Robert A. Jarrow

Publisher:

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 472

ISBN-13:

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Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance
Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Author: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-02-21

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1484397010

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The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

Financial Stability Monitoring
Financial Stability Monitoring

Author: Tobias Adrian

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.

New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles
New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles

Author: Douglas D. Evanoff

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2012-03

Total Pages: 481

ISBN-13: 019984433X

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The realities of the recent financial crisis have intensified theoretical modeling, empirical methodologies, and debate on policy issues surrounding asset price bubbles. Choosing to take a novel approach, the editors of this book have selected five classic papers that represent accepted thinking about asset bubbles prior to the financial crisis. They also include original papers challenging orthodox thinking and presenting new insights. A summary essay by the editors highlights the lessons learned and experiences gained since the crisis.

Innovation and Public Policy
Innovation and Public Policy

Author: Austan Goolsbee

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2022-03-25

Total Pages: 259

ISBN-13: 022680545X

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A calculation of the social returns to innovation /Benjamin F. Jones and Lawrence H. Summers --Innovation and human capital policy /John Van Reenen --Immigration policy levers for US innovation and start-ups /Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr --Scientific grant funding /Pierre Azoulay and Danielle Li --Tax policy for innovation /Bronwyn H. Hall --Taxation and innovation: what do we know? /Ufuk Akcigit and Stefanie Stantcheva --Government incentives for entrepreneurship /Josh Lerner.

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Author: John Y. Campbell

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2008-11-15

Total Pages: 444

ISBN-13: 0226092127

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Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.