We contribute to the growing debate on the relation between macroeconomic risk and stock price momentum. Not only is momentum seasonal, so is its net factor exposure. We show that winners and losers only differ in macroeconomic factor loadings during January, the one month when losers overwhelmingly outperform winners. In the remainder of the year, when momentum does exist, winner and loser factor loadings offset nearly completely. Furthermore, the magnitude of macroeconomic risk premia appears to seasonally vary contra momentum. In contrast, the relatively new profitability factor does a much better job of capturing the described seasonality.
We study the connection between momentum portfolio returns and shifts in factor loadings on the growth rate of industrial production. Winners have temporarily higher loadings than losers. The loading spread derives mostly from the high, positive loadings of winners. Small stocks have higher loadings than big stocks, and value stocks have higher loadings than growth stocks. Using standard multifactor tests, we present evidence that the growth rate of industrial production is a priced risk factor. In most of our tests, however, the combined effect of factor pricing and risk shifts does not explain a large fraction of momentum returns.
"Previous work shows that the growth rate of industrial production is a common macroeconomic risk factor in the cross-section of expected returns. We demonstrate the connection between momentum profits and shifts in factor loadings on this macroeconomic variable. Winners have temporarily higher loadings on the growth rate of industrial production than losers. The loading dispersion derives mostly from the high, positive loadings of winners. Depending on model specification, this loading dispersion can explain up to 40% of momentum profits"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Previous work shows that the growth rate of industrial production is a common macroeconomic risk factor in the cross-section of expected returns. We demonstrate the connection between momentum profits and shifts in factor loadings on this macroeconomic variable. Winners have temporarily higher loadings on the growth rate of industrial production than losers. The loading dispersion derives mostly from the high, positive loadings of winners. Depending on model specification, this loading dispersion can explain up to 40% of momentum profits.
We examine whether momentum profits globally can be explained by macroeconomic risk and address in part whether momentum returns are consistent with risk-based explanations. Profits to momentum strategies only weakly co-move among 40 countries, whether within regions or across continents. Internationally, momentum profits bear basically no statistically or economically significant relation to the Chen, Roll, and Ross (1986) macroeconomic factors. Performance of a forecasting model based on lagged instrumental variables also indicates that there is no measurable relation between macroeconomic risk and momentum either abroad or in the U.S. Globally, momentum profits are large and statistically reliable in periods of both negative and positive economic growth; these momentum profits reverse over one- to five-year horizons, an action inconsistent with current risk-based explanations.
The time series momentum strategy has been shown to deliver consistent profitability over a long time horizon. Funds pursuing these strategies are now a component of many institutional portfolios, due to the expectation of positive returns in equity bear markets. However, the return drivers of the strategy and its performance in other economic conditions are less well understood. The authors find evidence that the returns to the strategy are connected to the business cycle. Returns are positive in both recessions and expansions, but profitability is especially high in expansions. About 40% of returns are due to time varying factor-related risk exposure, consistent with rational asset pricing theories having a role in explaining the profitability of the strategy.
We show that economic activity plays an important role in explaining momentum-based anomalies. A simple two-factor model containing the market and alternative indicators of economic activity as risk factors--industrial production, capacity utilization rate, retail sales, and a broad economic index--offers considerable explanatory power for the cross-section of price and industry momentum portfolios. Hence past winners enjoy higher average returns than past losers because they have larger macroeconomic risk. The model compares favorably with popular multifactor models used in the literature. Moreover, our model is consistent with Merton's Intertemporal CAPM framework, since the macro variables forecast stock market volatility and future economic activity.
With Januaries (a month in which lagged quot;losersquot; typically outperform lagged quot;winnersquot;) excluded, the average monthly return to a momentum strategy for U.S. stocks was found to be 59 bps for non-quarter-ending months but 310 bps for quarter-ending months. The pattern was stronger for stocks with high levels of institutional trading and was particularly strong in December. The results suggest that window dressing by institutional investors and tax-loss selling contribute to stock return momentum. Investors using a momentum strategy should focus on quarter-ending months and securities with high levels of institutional trading.
The exponential growth of China's stock markets in the past decade has attracted global attention from academics and practitioners. The practitioner's interest in Chinese markets stems from corporations; investors and financial institutions foresee substantial benefits from investing in China in the long run. However, the academic literature on the development of securities markets and reform of state enterprises in China is still in its infancy and fragmented. This handbook aims to bridge that gap by presenting a wide spectrum of research in the forefront of financial applications. It integrates theory and practice with state-of-the-art statistical techniques and provides numerous insights into the main challenges confronting Chinese markets in the new millennium.
A one-of-a-kind reference guide covering the behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum and the implementation of momentum trading strategies Market Momentum: Theory and Practice is a thorough, how-to reference guide for a full range of financial professionals and students. It examines the behavioral and statistical causes of market momentum while also exploring the practical side of implementing related strategies. The phenomenon of momentum in finance occurs when past high returns are followed by subsequent high returns, and past low returns are followed by subsequent low returns. Market Momentum provides a detailed introduction to the financial topic, while examining existing literature. Recent academic and practitioner research is included, offering a more up-to-date perspective. What type of book is Market Momentum and how does it serve a range of readers’ interests and needs? A holistic market momentum guide for industry professionals, asset managers, risk managers, firm managers, plus hedge fund and commodity trading advisors Advanced text to help graduate students in finance, economics, and mathematics further develop their funds management skills Useful resource for financial practitioners who want to implement momentum trading strategies Reference book providing behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum Due to claims that the phenomenon of momentum goes against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, behavioral economists have studied the topic in-depth. However, many books published on the subject are written to provide advice on how to make money. In contrast, Market Momentum offers a comprehensive approach to the topic, which makes it a valuable resource for both investment professionals and higher-level finance students. The contributors address momentum theory and practice, while also offering trading strategies that practitioners can study.
