This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
The European Union (EU) is a unique partnership in which member states have pooled sovereignty in certain policy areas and harmonized laws on a wide range of economic and political issues. The EU is the latest stage in a process of European integration begun after World War II, initially by six Western European countries, to promote peace, security, and economic development. The EU currently consists of 28 member states, including most of the formerly communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The EU is largely viewed as a cornerstone of European stability and prosperity. For much of the last decade, however, many EU countries have faced considerable economic difficulties. Despite an improved economic situation in the EU since 2017, economic pressures and societal changes have contributed to the rise of populist and antiestablishment political parties, at least some of which harbor anti-EU or "euroskeptic" sentiments. Such trends have complicated the EU's ability to deal with multiple internal and external challenges. Among the most prominent challenges are the pending departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the EU ("Brexit"); democracy and rule-of-law concerns in Poland, Hungary, and other EU members; migration and related societal integration concerns; a resurgent Russia; and a heightened terrorism threat. Amid these difficult issues, some are questioning the future shape and character of the EU are being. Supporters of the EU worry that some aspects of EU integration could be stopped or reversed. Others contend that the multiple crises could produce some beneficial reforms that ultimately would transform the EU into a more effective, cohesive entity. Recently, considerable attention has focused on developing a "multispeed EU," in which some EU members could pursue greater integration in specified areas and others could opt out. Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress long have supported the European integration project, viewing it as crucial to European peace and security and as a way to foster strong U.S. allies and trading partners. Despite some tensions over the years, the United States and the EU share a dynamic political partnership on various foreign policy issues and an extensive trade and investment relationship. How the EU evolves in the years ahead may have strategic and economic repercussions for the United States. At the same time, some EU leaders are concerned about President Trump's apparent skepticism of the EU and his reported assessment of the bloc as an economic competitor. Those of this view also worry that elements of the Trump Administration's "America First" foreign policy-such as the U.S. decision to withdraw from the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal with Iran-pit the United States against the EU. A number of European officials and analysts question whether traditional U.S. support for close U.S.-EU relations may be shifting and whether the United States will remain a reliable international partner. Some observers suggest that managing relations with the United States under the Trump Administration has emerged as another, somewhat unexpected, challenge for the EU. At the same time, many in the EU hope to preserve close U.S.-EU ties and EU policymakers continue to seek to cooperate with the Trump Administration where possible on issues of common interest and concern. This report provides a brief history of the EU and the major challenges confronting the bloc. It also discusses the potential implications for the EU and for U.S.-EU relations.
This volume comprises papers presented at the 8th international conference “The Economies of the Balkan and Eastern European Countries in the Changing World” (EBEEC) held in Split, Croatia in 2016. The papers cover a wide range of current issues relevant for the whole of Eastern Europe, such as European integration, economic growth, labour markets, education and tourism. Written by experienced researchers in the field of economic challenges for Eastern Europe, the papers not only analyse recent problems, but also offer policies to resolve them. Furthermore, they offer insights into the theoretical and empirical foundations of the economic processes described. The proceedings of the conference appeals to all those interested in the further economic development of the Balkan and Eastern European countries.
A distinguished international group of central bankers, commercial bankers, entrepreneurs, academic advisors, policymakers, and representatives of development finance organizations and donor agencies, brought together by KfW, examines in this book the future of financial sector development in Southeast Europe. They explore ways to strengthen the banking sector in Southeast Europe, further promote SMEs, and improve access to financial services in the region. Experts and decision-makers assess the opportunities and challenges presented by the EU accession process and Basel II, and offer candid insight into the expanding role of the private sector in developing the financial landscape. The perspectives presented in this book will prompt discussion and intellectual exchange that will serve as a new starting point for further successful cooperative initiatives.
The paper reviews key macroeconomic challenges with EU accession in Southeastern Europe (SEE). Most of the countries in the region are years away from EU accession and need substantial progress to meet the key macroeconomic criteria - the establishment of a functioning market economy and macroeconomic stability. The former calls for further structural reforms. While macroeconomic stability is essential throughout the EU accession process, the importance of specific outcomes increases in the last stage of accession, when countries face decisions to apply for entry into the ERM2 and the Maastricht criteria (Bulgaria and Romania). The main challenges with establishing macroeconomic stability in other countries are related to sustainability of their monetary frameworks, risks from rapid financial deepening, and further fiscal consolidation to support growth and stabilization. Most of the SEE countries have room to lower public spending and increase the share of pro-growth spending.
Offers a collection of contributions, combining authoritative views of central bank officials and policymakers, topical empirical evidence from academia and refreshing practical insights from companies doing business in the area. This book will be useful to economists as well as those generally interested in the future of the EU.
Future economic development and the well-being of citizens in South East Europe (SEE) increasingly depend on greater economic competitiveness. Realising the region’s economic potential requires a holistic, growth-oriented policy approach. Against the backdrop of enhanced European Union (EU) ...
This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern Europe. In the emerging European economies, the key determinants of shadow economy size are regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and human capital. The paper argues that a comprehensive package of reforms, focused on country-specific drivers, is needed to successfully combat the shadow economy. The menu of policies most relevant for Europe’s emerging economies include: reducing regulatory and administrative burdens, promoting transparency and improving government effectiveness, as well as improving tax compliance, automating procedures, and promoting electronic payments.
