Leading Sectors and World Powers

Leading Sectors and World Powers

Author: George Modelski

Publisher: Univ of South Carolina Press

Published: 1996

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13: 9781570030543

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The idea that political and economic power moves in coordinated cycles has long intrigued political scientists and political economists, for if a pattern exists in the rise and fall of international political power, a model explaining this pattern gains predictive qualities. In Leading Sectors and World Powers, George Modelski and William R. Thompson venture beyond previous attempts to explain why major powers rise, fall, and fight about their changing status to establish an explicit connection between war, economic innovation, and world leadership. They argue that surges in economic innovation, which in turn are tied to global war, determine leadership in the global system. Modelski and Thompson base their theory on the coordination of long cycles (phases of world order and decay punctuated by intensive bouts of global war) and K-waves (cycles delineating the wax and wane of leading industrial sectors). They contend that K-waves appear in paired sets correlated to long-cycle shifts in political power. Modelski and Thompson conclude by discussing the nature and timing of the next K-wave/long cycle peak, commenting on the relevance of it for U.S. industrial policy and speculating on the possibility of evolving away from this pattern in the near future.


Power Concentration in World Politics

Power Concentration in World Politics

Author: William R. Thompson

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-06-10

Total Pages: 245

ISBN-13: 3030474224

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This book discusses the role of space, time and cyclical behavior in world politics. More specifically, the political-economic role of lead economies – the world’s most innovative economies for finite periods of time – in world politics. These represent unusual concentrations of new technologies, energy sources, and military capabilities of global reach that play disproportional roles in the conduct of international affairs and the provision of limited governance at the most macro level. They also possess close links to economic growth and intense conflict. The book describes the economic, military and political processes behind the systemic leadership of a state at the international level. It also highlights the economic preconditions of systemic leadership, such as economic monopoly of new technologies and energy, which underlie the system leader’s material advantage over others. Analyzing lead economies and the evolution of power over a number of centuries, the author demonstrates how disruptions wrought by the emergence of new technologies and energy sources are partly responsible for global conflicts. This book appeals to international relations scholars as well as anyone interested in the political economy of systemic leadership, growth, and conflict in world politics.


Systems in Crisis

Systems in Crisis

Author: Charles F. Doran

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1991-07-26

Total Pages: 316

ISBN-13: 0521401852

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Uncertainty is the watchword of contemporary world politics. Monumental changes are occurring throughout the international system and statespeople are wrestling with peaceful solutions to the transformation in relative power of the USA, Soviet Union and China, Japan and in Europe. In this book, Charles Doran proposes a managed solution to peaceful change. He presents a bold, original and wide-ranging analysis of the present balance of power, of future prospects for the international system and of the problems involved in this transformation. Professor Doran demonstrates why such change has often been accompanied by world war, providing new insights into the causes of the First World War. But, he argues, systems change can be both peaceful and secure. Developing a theory of the power cycle, the author reveals the structural bounds on statecraft and shows how the tides of history can suddenly and unexpectedly shift against the state.


Power, Order, and Change in World Politics

Power, Order, and Change in World Politics

Author: G. John Ikenberry

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2014-08-21

Total Pages: 307

ISBN-13: 1107072743

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This volume brings together leading scholars to analyse the central issues of power, order, and change in world politics.


The Future of Global Conflict

The Future of Global Conflict

Author: Volker Bornschier

Publisher: SAGE

Published: 1999-07-06

Total Pages: 328

ISBN-13: 9780761958666

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This critical analysis of long-term trends and recent developments in world systems examines such questions as: Will the cycles of boom and bust, peace and war of the past 500 years continue? Or have either long-term trends or recent changes so profoundly altered the structure of world systems that these cycles will end or take on a less destructive form? The noted international contributors to this volume examine the question of future dominance of the core global systems and include comprehensive discussions of the economic, political and military role of the Pacific Rim, Japan and the former Soviet Union.


The Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning

Author: William Strauss

Publisher: Crown

Published: 1997-12-29

Total Pages: 401

ISBN-13: 0767900464

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NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Discover the game-changing theory of the cycles of history and what past generations can teach us about living through times of upheaval—with deep insights into the roles that Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials have to play—now with a new preface by Neil Howe. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. With blazing originality, The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict what comes next. Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.


Long Cycles in World Politics

Long Cycles in World Politics

Author: George Modelski

Publisher:

Published: 1987

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780295964300

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Argues that there are major wars every one hundred years, explains the reasons for this cycle, and suggests how world leadership can avoid the next war


The Storm Before the Calm

The Storm Before the Calm

Author: George Friedman

Publisher: Anchor

Published: 2020-02-25

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 0385540507

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*One of Bloomberg's Best Books of the Year* The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture. In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail. American history must be viewed in cycles—particularly, an eighty-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examples—the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s—a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world. Friedman's analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.