Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries
Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries

Author: Mr.Peter Montiel

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1993-08-01

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1451960352

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It is often argued that the parallel market premium is a useful indicator of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries. The empirical evidence does not, however, suggest the existence of a robust correlation between these two endogenous variables that is independent of the nature of economic shocks and various structural relationships in the economy. This paper presents an analytical investigation of the reliability of the parallel market premium as an indicator of real exchange rate misalignment in the context of a fully optimizing model of a developing country. The analysis suggests that one should exercise caution in drawing inferences about the sign and magnitude of real exchange rate misalignment from the parallel market premium.

Parallel Currency Markets in Developing Countries
Parallel Currency Markets in Developing Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-12-01

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13: 1451943229

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The paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical developments in the analysis of informal currency markets in developing countries. The basic characteristics of these markets are highlighted, and alternative analytical models to explain them are discussed. The implications for exchange rate policy —including imposition of foreign exchange restrictions, devaluation, and unification of exchange markets— in countries with a sizable parallel market are also examined.

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries
Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries

Author: Sebastian Edwards

Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press

Published: 1988

Total Pages: 110

ISBN-13:

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This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.

Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries?
Is the Parallel Market Premium a Reliable Indicator of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries?

Author: Peter J. Montiel

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13:

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It is often argued that the parallel market premium is a useful indicator of real exchange rate misalignment in developing countries. The empirical evidence does not, however, suggest the existence of a robust correlation between these two endogenous variables that is independent of the nature of economic shocks and various structural relationships in the economy. This paper presents an analytical investigation of the reliability of the parallel market premium as an indicator of real exchange rate misalignment in the context of a fully optimizing model of a developing country. The analysis suggests that one should exercise caution in drawing inferences about the sign and magnitude of real exchange rate misalignment from the parallel market premium.

IMF Staff papers
IMF Staff papers

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1994-01-01

Total Pages: 176

ISBN-13: 1451930887

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The paper presents a model of optimum currency areas using a general equilibrium approach with regionally differentiated goods. The choice of a currency union depends upon the size of the underlying disturbances, the correlation between these disturbances, the costs of transactions across currencies, factor mobility across regions, and the interrelationships between demand for different goods. It is found that, while a currency union can raise the welfare of the regions within the union, it unambiguously lowers welfare for those outside the union. [JEL F33, F36]

Recognizing Reality—Unification of Official and Parallel Market Exchange Rates
Recognizing Reality—Unification of Official and Parallel Market Exchange Rates

Author: Mr.Simon T Gray

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-02-05

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1513568639

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Some central banks have maintained overvalued official exchange rates, while unable to ensure that supply of foreign exchange meets legitimate demand for current account transactions at that price. A parallel exchange rate market develops, in such circumstances; and when the spread between the official and parallel rates is both substantial and sustained, price levels in the economy typically reflect the parallel market exchange rate. “Recognizing reality” by allowing economic agents to use a market clearing rate benefits economic activity without necessarily leading to more inflation. But a unified, market-clearing exchange rate will not stabilize without a supportive fiscal and monetary context. A number of country case studies are included; my thanks to Jie Ren for pulling together all the data for the country case studies, and the production of the charts.

Globalization and Autocentricity in Africa's Development in the 21st Century
Globalization and Autocentricity in Africa's Development in the 21st Century

Author: Kidane Mengisteab

Publisher: Africa World Press

Published: 1996

Total Pages: 242

ISBN-13: 9780865435599

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African economies are the most dependent and the most marginalised in the global system. Prevailing policies to integrate these economies more closely with the global economy are, in the view of many misplaced and this work presents a series of alternative strategies that will tap the energies of the African people to develop their own potential and reduce their dependence on World Bank/IMF-led approaches.

Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1999
Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1999

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-01-01

Total Pages: 144

ISBN-13: 9781557759801

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Research activity in the IMF emphasizes the links between the organization's policy and operational concerns. The main objectives of research is IMF staff understanding of policy and operational issues relevant to the institution, and to improve the analytical quality of the work prepared for management and the Executive Board and the advice provided to member countries. The scope of research in the IMF is defined by the purposes and functions of the institution. In order to foster innovation and ensure quality control, the IMF makes much of its research available outside the institution and encourages staff to interact with academia and other research organizations through conferences, seminars, and occasional joint research projects. The visiting scholar’s program has also enhanced the quality of research done in the IMF. This program brings in leading members of the economics profession from around the world to assist in the preparation of papers for the Executive Board and to conduct research on IMF-related issues.