Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk
Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

Author: Marjolein B.A. van Asselt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-03-09

Total Pages: 444

ISBN-13: 9401725837

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This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2015-07-24

Total Pages: 350

ISBN-13: 0262331713

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An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Integrated Uncertainty Management and Applications
Integrated Uncertainty Management and Applications

Author: Van-Nam Huynh

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2010-03-26

Total Pages: 569

ISBN-13: 3642119603

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Solving practical problems often requires the integration of information and knowledge from many different sources, taking into account uncertainty and impreciseness. The 2010 International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty Management and Applications (IUM’2010), which takes place at the Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (JAIST), Ishikawa, Japan, between 9th–11th April, is therefore conceived as a forum for the discussion and exchange of research results, ideas for and experience of application among researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-04-04

Total Pages: 408

ISBN-13: 3030052524

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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Managing Risk and Uncertainty
Managing Risk and Uncertainty

Author: Richard Friberg

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2015-11-13

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 0262528193

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A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty
Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2013-05-20

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 0309290236

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making
Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Author: Katsuhiro Honda

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-03-03

Total Pages: 389

ISBN-13: 3030980189

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 98th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2021, held in Ishikawa, Japan, in March 2022. The 30 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 46 submissions. The papers deal with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management and are organized in topical sections on uncertainty management and decision making, optimization and statistical methods, pattern classification and data analysis, machine learning, and economic applications.

Controlling Uncertainty
Controlling Uncertainty

Author: Magda Osman

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-07-18

Total Pages: 322

ISBN-13: 144435180X

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Controlling Uncertainty: Decision Making and Learning in Complex Worlds reviews and discusses the most current research relating to the ways we can control the uncertain world around us. Features reviews and discussions of the most current research in a number of fields relevant to controlling uncertainty, such as psychology, neuroscience, computer science and engineering Presents a new framework that is designed to integrate a variety of disparate fields of research Represents the first book of its kind to provide a general overview of work related to understanding control

Uncertainty, Information Management, and Disclosure Decisions
Uncertainty, Information Management, and Disclosure Decisions

Author: Tamara Afifi

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-12-22

Total Pages: 497

ISBN-13: 1135890552

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This volume integrates scholarly work on disclosure and uncertainty with the most up-to-date, cutting edge research, theories, and applications. Uncertainty is an ever-present part of human relationships, and the ways in which people reduce and/or manage uncertainty involves regulating their communication with others through revealing and concealing information. This collection is devoted to collating knowledge in these areas, advancing theory and presenting work that is socially meaningful. This work includes contributions from renowned scholars in interpersonal uncertainty and information regulation, focusing on processes that bridge boundaries within and across disciplines, while maintaining emphasis on interpersonal contexts. Disciplines represented here include interpersonal, family, and health communication, as well as relational and social psychology. Key features of the volume include: comprehensive coverage integrating the latest research on disclosure, information seeking, and uncertainty a highly theoretical content, socially meaningful in nature (applied to real-world contexts) an interdisciplinary approach that crosses sub-fields within communication. This volume is a unique and timely resource for advanced study in interpersonal, health, or family communication. With its emphasis on theory, the book is an excellent resource for graduate courses addressing theory and/or theory construction, and it will also appeal to scholars interested in applied research.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making
Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Author: Van-Nam Huynh

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-11-21

Total Pages: 740

ISBN-13: 331949046X

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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2016, held in Da Nang, Vietnam, in November/December 2016. The IUKM symposia aim to provide a forum for exchanges of research results and ideas, and experience of application among researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management.