This book studies the information spillover among financial markets and explores the intraday effect and ACD models with high frequency data. This book also contributes theoretically by providing a new statistical methodology with comparative advantages for analyzing comovements between two time series. It explores this new method by testing the information spillover between the Chinese stock market and the international market, futures market and spot market. Using the high frequency data, this book investigates the intraday effect and examines which type of ACD model is particularly suited in capturing financial duration dynamics. The book will be of invaluable use to scholars and graduate students interested in comovements among different financial markets and financial market microstructure and to investors and regulation departments looking to improve their risk management.
This dissertation, "On the Long Memory Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models" by Sai-shing, Ma, 馬世晟, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: In financial markets, transaction durations refer to the duration time between two consecutive trades. It is common that more frequent trades are expected to be followed by shorter durations between consecutive transactions, while less frequent trades are expected to be followed by longer durations. Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model was developed to model transaction durations, based on the assumption that the expected average duration is dependent on the past durations. Empirically, transaction durations possess much longer memory than expected. The autocorrelation functions of durations decay slowly and are still significant after a large number of lags. Therefore, the fractionally integrated autoregressive conditional duration (FIACD) model was proposed to model this kind of long memory behavior. The ACD model possesses short memory as the dependence of the past durations will die out exponentially. The FIACD model possesses much longer memory as the dependence of the past durations will decay hyperbolically. However, the modeling result would be misleading if the actual dependence of the past durations decays between exponential rate and hyperbolic rate. Neither of these models can truly reveal the memory properties in this case. This thesis proposes a new duration model, named as the hyperbolic autoregressive conditional duration (HYACD) model, which combines the ACD model and the FIACD model into one. It possesses both short memory and long memory properties and allows the dependence of the past durations to decay between the exponential rate and the hyperbolic rate. It also indicates whether the dependence is close to short memory or long memory. The model is applied to the transaction data of AT&T and McDonald stocks traded on NYSE and statistically positive results are obtained when it is compared to the ACD model and the FIACD model. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5185908 Subjects: Autoregression (Statistics) Time-series analysis
This paper will propose a new statistical model for the analysis of data that does not arrive in equal time intervals such as financial transactions data, telephone calls, or sales data on commodities that are tracked electronically. In contrast to fixed interval analysis, the model treats the time between observation arrivals as a stochastic time varying process and therefore is in the spirit of the models of time deformation initially proposed by Tauchen and Pitts (1983), Clark (1973) and more recently discussed by Stock (1988), Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1992), Muller et al. (1990) and Ghysels and Jasiak (1994) but does not require auxiliary data or assumptions on the causes of time flow. Strong evidence is provided for duration clustering beyond a deterministic component for the financial transactions data analyzed. We will show that a very simple version of the model can successfully account for the significant autocorrelations in the observed durations between trades of IBM stock on the consolidated market. A simple transformation of the duration data allows us to include volume in the model.
Apparel is one of the oldest and largest export industries in the world. It is also one of the most global industries because most nations produce for the international textile and apparel market. The changing global landscape drives cost volatility, regulatory risk and change in consumer preference. In today’s retail landscape, media and advocacy groups have focussed attention on social and environmental issues, as well as new regulatory requirements and stricter legislations. Understanding and managing any risk within the supply chain, particularly ethical and responsible sourcing, has become increasingly critical. This book first gives a systematic introduction to the evolution of SCRM through literature review and discusses the importance of SCRM in the apparel industry. Second, it describes the life cycle of the apparel supply chain and defines the different roles of the value chain in the apparel industry. Thirdly, it identifies the risk factors in the Apparel Life Cycle and analyses the risk sources and consequences and finally, extends the importance of selection of the suppliers and develops a supplier selection model and SCRM strategies solution by data analysis and case studies.
This book provides an updated, concise summary of forecasting air travel demand methodology. It looks at air travel demand forecasting research and attempts to outline the whole intellectual landscape of demand forecasting. It helps readers to understand the basic idea of TEI@I methodology used in forecasting air travel demand and how it is used in developing air travel demand forecasting methods. The book also discusses what to do when facing different forecasting problems making it a useful reference for business practitioners in the industry.
This book provides an overview of Chinese RMB exchange markets and its risk management strategies. The view that RMB is playing an increasingly international role has been widely accepted by practitioners as well as scholars worldwide. Moreover, the Chinese government is opening the control of RMB exchange market step by step. However, some related topics are under heated debate, such as how to manage and warn of the currency crisis, what the trend of RMB exchange rate in the future is, and how to hedge the exchange risk in the process of RMB internationalization. In this book, we will give distinct answers to the above questions.
This book describes the history of gold as a financial instrument and discusses gold exchanges in the major markets. It also describes the history of the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (CGSE), its current organizational structure and membership registration system. The book also includes the development and growth of the gold market in Hong Kong and the role played by CGSE in the growth of the Chinese gold market. It includes a brief description of the CGSE in the twenty-first century – its current role and what it may play in the future. The book explains factors that influence gold price and the mechanism of price formulation. It also describes the historic trends in the demand and supply of gold and the global inventory of gold, trends of the demand for investment holdings, jewelry manufacturing and industrial usage. The book also compares the movements in gold price with inflation and analyzes the data on how gold provides a hedge against inflation. It also examines and explains the relationship between gold and the US dollar (USD) and the correlation between dollar index (value of dollar against 16 major currencies) and gold price. It explores in depth on the relationship between gold price, output and inventories and major economic indices. This is a good reference for those interested in the comprehensive view of gold and its importance in the world economies.
