This report brings together the proceedings of a conference on inflation & growth in China. The discussions benefited from the participation of senior central bank officials, academics, & IMF staff. Against the background of experiences from other countries, China's reform program was examined in detail, & the papers in this volume allow readers to draw inferences about the existence & sustainability of a trade-off between inflation & growth. The papers fall into three general categories: international experiences; sustainable growth & structural reform; & monetary & exchange rate policies.
Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: A, University of Newcastle, language: English, abstract: During the past two decades, China’s economy has been growing rapidly, so has the inflation rate. This research focuses on the relationship between China’s inflation rate and economic growth. There are three sub-questions, consisting of whether there is a significant correlation between China’s inflation and economic growth, whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between China’s inflation and economic growth, and how time factor influences their relationship. The result will be helpful for the government to find a way in order to achieve high economic growth and low inflation. After reviewing empirical literature, we know that as the dada and methods differ, different researchers have generated different conclusions regarding the relationship between inflation and economic growth. In this research, we use CPI to measure inflation rate and GDP growth rate to measure economic growth rate. All the data are collected from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. We use three methods to analyse data, including the Correlation Coefficient test, the Granger Causality test as well as the VAR model analysis. The result turns out to be that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between inflation and economy growth, but the relationship is not so strong because CPI is not solely driven by GDP. At last, we have come up with three recommendations: firstly, change their model of economic development; secondly, use the monetary policies; thirdly, monitor and predict people’s expectation of inflation.
In the early 1990's, the world began to recognize China as a rising economic power to reckon with. China's economy is dynamic ? her human and natural resources are plentiful and her economic growth has been well sustained over the last 16 years. In fact, some have predicted that by the year 2020, China's economic output will be close to half that of the US. It is undeniable that China will be an economic giant, if she is not already one today.In this book, the author has traced China's economic development over the last 16 years. The steps and characteristics of China's economic reform are detailed. The prospects for China's economic growth are studied. The author also attempts to analyze topical issues pertaining to China's economic relations with the US and her integration with the other Asian economies. This book provides the interested reader with a bird's eye view of the Chinese economy over the last 16 years. Most chapters are written for the general reader, while a few are for professional economists. For the questions it answers or for those that it raises, this is an important book to read.
This paper presents some facts on China’s role in the world economy and measures the impact of China’s growth on growth in the rest of the world in the short and long term. Short-run estimates based on VARs and error-correction models suggest that spillover effects of China’s growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
Since the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 30 years ago, China has been one of the world¿s fastest-growing economies and has emerged as a major economic and trade power. China¿s economy and economic policies are of major concern to many U.S. policymakers. Contents of this report: Most Recent Developments; An Overview of China¿s Economic Development; Measuring the Size of China¿s Economy; Foreign Direct Investment in China; China¿s Trade Patterns; China¿s Growing Overseas Direct Investment; Major Long-Term Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy; Fallout From the Current Global Financial Crisis. Charts and tables.
