The authors examine the numerous structural and policy changes Indian authorities have adopted since the 1991 balance of payments crisis; how these changes helped India weather the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98; the risks to fiscal sustainability and their implications for growth; the challenges facing monetary policy in the face of financial market liberalization; and the benefits of structural reform and fiscal policy for growth, poverty, and the reduction of regional disparities.
Over the past 25 years, India's economy grew at an average real rate of close to 6 percent, with growth rates in recent years accelerating to 9 percent. Yet by 2005-06, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio was 34 percentage points higher than in the 1980s. The authors examine the links between public finances and growth in the post-1991 period. They argue that the main factor in the deterioration of government debt dynamics after the mid-1990s was a reform-induced loss in trade, customs, and financial repression taxes. Over time, these very factors plus lower entry barriers have contributed to stronger microfoundations for growth by increasing competition and hardening budget constraints for firms and financial sector institutions. The authors suggest that the impressive growth acceleration of the past few years, which is now lowering government indebtedness, can be attributed to the lagged effects of these factors, which have taken time to attain a critical mass in view of India's gradual reforms. Similarly, the worsening of public finances during the late 1990s can be attributed to the cumulative effects of tax losses, the negative growth effects of cuts in capital expenditure that were made to offset the tax losses, and a pullback in private investment (hence, growth and taxes), a situation which is now turning around. Insufficient capital expenditures have contributed to the infrastructure gap, which is seen as a constraint especially for rapid growth in manufacturing. The authors discuss ongoing reforms in revenue mobilization and fiscal adjustment at the state level, which if successfully implemented, will result in a better alignment of public finances with growth by generating further fiscal space for infrastructure and other development spending.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the fiscal position of Sri Lanka. The standard analysis shows that, prior to the adjustment announced in the 2002 budget, fiscal policy was clearly unsustainable, leading to a rising debt-to-GDP ratio. The paper looks at external debt and complements the analysis of the public debt dynamics. The baseline scenario shows that debt ratios decline significantly in the medium term, as a result of strong growth founded on renewed peace and political stability, far-reaching structural reforms, and stable macroeconomic conditions.
In the past few years, India has emerged as a global economic power. It is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, the leading outsourcing destination, and a favorite of international investors. But even with India’s impressive recent achievements, the country continues to face considerable challenges as it seeks to sustain rapid growth and extend the benefits to all its citizens. Is India entering into a "Golden Age" or experiencing a period of rapid but ultimately unsustainable growth? The studies in this book examine in detail what lies behind India’s recent economic rise and considers the steps needed to build on this success over the medium term.
It is not necessarily true that such income transfers would invariably reduce growth rates. The relationship between economic growth and income inequality depends on certain initial conditions. For instance, if the initial distribution of income is fairly unequal, growth induces greater equality. On the other hand, at high levels of per capita incomes, growth may raise inequality if the initial level of inequality is not very high. This brings a new dimension in the "inverted-U hypothesis." Based on econometric modeling of growth-inequality nexus, the book examines the patterns of growth and economic disparities in BRIC countries over long periods of time, including the recent high growth phase. Two inequality measures applied in this study are Gini coefficient and Theil's entropy measures, depending on data availability. Attempts have been made to identify the sources of inequality and the role of initial conditions in determining the patterns of development.
This book highlights the development disparities in India and considers three complex areas of development – economic wellbeing, human progress and agricultural development – over a period of forty years since the 1970s. The novelty of the book lies in is its rich analytical foundation and the use of sophisticated statistical and economic tools to determine the causes of socioeconomic disparity between Indian states. The trends of inequality, polarization and disparity are highlighted with regard to income, human development indicators and agricultural production and productivity. The book also identifies the factors underlying divergence in economic and social activity in India and provides policy suggestions for bringing about more balanced and inclusive development in India.
South Asia has performed well over the past 25 years in reducing poverty, improving human development and increasing growth, but faster progress with poverty reduction will require a higher rate of growth. This book shows that the development performance is not a puzzle but largely explained by good policies. Countries in the region have maintained good macroeconomic environments, opened up their economies to greater domestic and international competition, and reduced the role of corrupt and inefficient public enterprises.
This book examines new policies for accelerating India's economic growth. This book discusses a set of dynamic strategies for growth, emphasizing the dynamic role of information technology and the New Economy. These show how new growth and the historical experiences of fast-growing Asian countries can be utilised for a new growth paradigm in India.
Notwithstanding the improved growth performance of India, development disparity across its states has widened in the first two decades of the 21st century. This book examines development drivers of Indian states and what the necessary course corrections could be to achieve balanced regional growth. The book begins with a discussion on the evolution of growth and inequality across the states and delves into decomposing growth. It looks at three broad themes which are decomposition of growth and determinants of TFP, impact of Infrastructure on growth and inequality, and the institutional dimension of growth and explains why they are pivotal for sustainable growth in Indian states. This book will be a useful reference to those interested in understanding growth and inequality in India.
