The paper examines the impact of bank credit to output growth in the manufacturing and agricultural sub sectors of the economy over the period 1980-2010. Using the error correction modeling techniques, the results show that bank credit has significant impact on manufacturing output growth both in the short run and long run but not in the agricultural sub sector. Inflation and exchange rate depreciation have negative effects on manufacturing output growth in both short run and long run. To boost output growth in the real sector, more bank credit should be made available to the real sector especially the manufacturing sector. Also, inflation should be kept low while the value of the domestic currency should be strengthened.
This paper estimates the magnitude of key effects on the real economy from financial sector stress. We focus on the short-run feedback effect from market-based indicators of financial sector risk to the real economy through the credit channel, and estimate this effect on an economy-wide (macro) level, as well as on the level of individual large banks. Both estimates yield significant feedback effects of substantial magnitude. The estimates are consistent with other work in this area. Our results suggest that prudential supervision could be enhanced by taking into account the feedback effects of financial instability in the real economy. We also propose a way to integrate feedback effects into stress tests in order to improve realism and accuracy or macroeconomic stress scenarios, as well as a metric to interpret stress testing results.
A framework for macroprudential regulation that defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, describes macroprudential tools, and surveys the effectiveness of existing macroprudential regulation. The recent financial crisis has shattered all standard approaches to banking regulation. Regulators now recognize that banking regulation cannot be simply based on individual financial institutions' risks. Instead, systemic risk and macroprudential regulation have come to the forefront of the new regulatory paradigm. Yet our knowledge of these two core aspects of regulation is still limited and fragmented. This book offers a framework for understanding the reasons for the regulatory shift from a microprudential to a macroprudential approach to financial regulation. It defines systemic risk and macroprudential policy, cutting through the generalized confusion as to their meaning; contrasts macroprudential to microprudential approaches; discusses the interaction of macroprudential policy with macroeconomic policy (monetary policy in particular); and describes macroprudential tools and experiences with macroprudential regulation around the world. The book also considers the remaining challenges for establishing effective macroprudential policy and broader issues in regulatory reform. These include the optimal size and structure of the financial system, the multiplicity of regulatory bodies in the United States, the supervision of cross-border financial institutions, and the need for international cooperation on macroprudential policies.
We study bank portfolio allocations during the transition of the real sector to a knowledge economy in which firms use less tangible capital and invest more in intangible assets. We show that, as firms shift toward intangible assets that have lower collateral values, banks reallocate their portfolios away from commercial loans toward other assets, primarily residential real estate loans and liquid assets. This effect is more pronounced for large and less well capitalized banks and is robust to controlling for real estate loan demand. Our results suggest that increased firm investment in intangible assets can explain up to 20% of bank portfolio reallocation from commercial to residential lending over the last four decades.
Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2011 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, , language: English, abstract: The ongoing financial crisis has reinforced the importance of capital in the industrial development and economic growth of a country. In the last two years, industries have closed down owing to lack of capital occasioned by the global financial meltdown. From America, London, other European countries, Asia and Africa, governments have had to intervene in other to bail out some ailing industries and forestall total collapse of the economy. These show the importance of credit either from bank or any other means to industries. Recognizing the importance of capital in economic growth, Mackinnon and Shaw (1973), outlined the procedures for strengthening the financial sector of an economy so as to enable it play the all important role of providing capital for industrial development. Among the basic explanations for this is that the financial sector serves to reallocate funds from the supply side, given their investment opportunities, to the demand side with a shortage of funds. Thus, an economy with well-developed financial institutions will be better able to allocate resources to industries that yield the highest returns. The manufacturing sector is a catalyst to the modern economy and has a many dynamic benefits that are crucial for economic transformation, (Loto, 2005). The manufacturing sector is a leading sector. It helps to increase productivity in relation to import substitution, export expansion, creating foreign exchange earning capacity, raising employment and per capital income which according to Loto, (2005), widens the scope of consumption in dynamic patterns. Ogwuma, (1995) asserts that the manufacturing sector promotes the growth of investment at a faster rate than any other sector of the economy as well as wider and more efficient linkages among different sectors.
The effect of bank capital on lending is a critical determinant of the linkage between financial conditions and real activity, and has received especial attention in the recent financial crisis. The authors use panel-regression techniques to study the lending of large bank holding companies (BHCs) and find small effects of capital on lending. They then consider the effect of capital ratios on lending using a variant of Lown and Morgan's VAR model, and again find modest effects of bank capital ratio changes on lending. The authors¿ estimated models are then used to understand recent developments in bank lending and, in particular, to consider the role of TARP-related capital injections in affecting these developments. Illus. A print on demand pub.
The transmission of monetary policy to credit aggregates and the real economy can be impaired by weaknesses in the contracting environment, shallow financial markets, and a concentrated banking system. We empirically assess the bank lending channel in Uganda during 2010–2014 using a supervisory dataset of loan applications and granted loans. Our analysis focuses on a short period during which the policy rate rose by 1,000 basis points and then came down by 1,200 basis points. We find that an increase in interest rates reduces the supply of bank credit both on the extensive and intensive margins, and there is significant pass-through to retail lending rates. We document a strong bank balance sheet channel, as the lending behavior of banks with high capital and liquidity is different from that of banks with low capital and liquidity. Finally, we show the impact of monetary policy on real activity across districts depends on banking sector conditions. Overall, our results indicate significant real effects of the bank lending channel in developing countries.
We estimate the effect of the sharp reduction in credit supply following the 2008 financial crisis on the real economy. The identification strategy relies on the substantial heterogeneity in the degree to which banks cut lending over this period. Specifically, we predict changes in county-level small business lending over 2007-2009 by estimating the national change in each bank's lending that is attributable to supply factors (e.g., due to differences in the crisis' effect on their balance sheets) and, subsequently, allocating this quantity to counties based on the banks' pre-crisis market shares. We find that in 2008, 2009, and 2010, this measure is highly predictive of total county-level small business loan originations indicating that, at least in the near term, a firm cannot easily find a new lender if its bank limits access to credit. Additionally, we find that areas with more exposure to banks that cut small business lending during this period experience depressed employment and business formation. Upper bound estimates suggest that the 2007-2009 decline in small business lending accounted for up to 20% of the decline in employment in firms with less than 20 employees, 16% of the total employment loss, and 30% of the decline in inflation adjusted aggregate wages during this period. Finally, we note that the relationship between lending supply and economic activity is not evident in the 1997-2007 period, underscoring the unique circumstances during the Great Recession.
A fascinating analysis of the critical role commercial property investment played in the economic boom and bust during the global financial crisis The unprecedented financial boom stretching from the mid-1990s through 2008 ultimately led to the deepest recession in modern times and one of the slowest economic recoveries in history. It also resulted in the emergence of the draconian austerity policies that have swept across Europe in recent years. Property Boom and Banking Bust offers an expert insight into the complex property market dynamics that contributed to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and its devastating economic consequences. It is the first book to focus on a woefully underreported dimension of the crisis, namely, the significant role that lending on commercial property development played in the crisis. Among other key topics, the authors explore the philosophical and behavioral factors that propelled irresponsible bank lending and the property boom; how it led to the downfall of the banks; the impact of the credit crunch on the real estate industry generally in the wake of the financial crisis; the catastrophic effects the property bust had on property investors, both large and small; and how the financial institutions have sought to recover in the wake of the financial crisis. Provides valuable insights into what happened in previous booms and busts, particularly in the 1970s and 1980s, and how they compare with the most recent one Offers an expert assessment of the consequences of the global financial crisis for the banking system and the commercial property industry Examines strategies banks have used to recover their positions and manage the overhang of indebtedness and bad property assets Addresses strategies the real estate industry have used to recover from the collapse in property values Written in an accessible style, and featuring numerous insider case accounts from property bankers, Property Boom and Banking Bust disentangles the complex, tightly-woven factors that led to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, while offering powerful lessons for property industry professionals on how to avoid having history repeat itself.
Recent studies show that uncertainty shocks have quantitatively important effects on the real economy. This paper examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk-neutral shareholders and subject to limited liability, can exhibit self-insurance, and thus loan supply contracts when uncertainty increases. This prediction is tested with the universe of U.S. commercial banks over the period 1984-2010. Identification of credit supply is achieved by looking at the differential response of banks according to their level of capitalization. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, increases in uncertainty reduce the supply of credit, more so for banks with lower levels of capitalization. These results are weaker for large banks, and are robust to controlling for the lending and capital channels of monetary policy, to different measures of uncertainty, and to breaking the dataset in subsamples. Quantitatively, uncertainty shocks are almost as important as monetary policy ones with regards to the effects on the supply of credit.
