IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries
IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries

Author: Mr.Christian Mumssen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-01-15

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 1484359437

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This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.

IMF-Supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low-Income Countries
IMF-Supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low-Income Countries

Author: Tejesh Pradhan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-12-13

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1484386140

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Continuing the empirical debate on the effects of IMF-supported programs on participating countries’ macroeconomic performance, we focus on the issue of whether these programs accelerate conditional ß-convergence among low-income countries (LICs). We use an unbalanced panel dataset for 85 LICs over the period 1986-2015 and employ two different econometric methods to address the selection bias problem. Our empirical results suggest that the rate of conditional income per capita convergence is faster among LICs with extended IMF support than that in countries without support or with intermittent support.

Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting

Author: Martin Iseringhausen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-11-08

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1513520040

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This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.

Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence
Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-12-01

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1451858310

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Over the last two decades a number of cross-country empirical studies have been undertaken to assess whether IMF-supported adjustment programs have led to an improved balance of payments and current account balance, lower inflation, and higher growth. These studies use a variety of methodologies and cover different country samples and time periods. This paper critically surveys the evidence yielded by the cross-country studies, paying special attention to the pros and cons of the respective empirical methodologies employed. These studies, particularly the more recent ones, conclude that IMF-supported programs have generally been successful in stabilizing the economy.

What Happens to Social Spending in IMF-Supported Programs?
What Happens to Social Spending in IMF-Supported Programs?

Author: Mr.Masahiro Nozaki

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-08-31

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 1463935145

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Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs

Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-09-09

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 1513594478

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This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

IMF-Supported Programs
IMF-Supported Programs

Author: Mr.Ashoka Mody

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-04-03

Total Pages: 184

ISBN-13: 9781589063617

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Research work by the IMF’s staff on the effectiveness of the country programs the organization supports, which has long been carried out, has intensified in recent years. IMF analysts have sought to “open up the black box” by more closely examining program design and implementation, as well as how these influence programs’ effectiveness. Their efforts have also focused on identifying the lending, signaling, and monitoring features of the IMF that may affect member countries’ economic performance. This book reports on a large portion of both the new and the continuing research. It concludes that IMF programs work best where domestic politics and institutions permit the timely implementation of the necessary measures and when a country is vulnerable to, but not yet in, a crisis. It points to the need for a wider recognition of the substantial diversity among IMF member countries and for programs to be tailored accordingly while broadly maintaining the IMF’s general principle of uniformity of treatment.

Reform of the Policy on Public Debt Limits in IMF-Supported Programs
Reform of the Policy on Public Debt Limits in IMF-Supported Programs

Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-11-11

Total Pages: 67

ISBN-13: 1513560883

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This paper evaluates the IMF’s policy on the use of quantitative limits on public debt in IMF-supported programs (the “debt limits policy”) and proposes a number of modifications. The review is taking place at a time when many countries are experiencing heightened debt vulnerabilities or actual debt distress, aggravated by the COVID-19 shock, and occurring against the backdrop of a changing credit landscape in which concessional finance is scarcer relative to countries’ investment needs.

The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries
The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries

Author: Yasemin Bal-Gunduz

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-10-04

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13: 1484394712

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This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.