IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-12-22

Total Pages: 193

ISBN-13: 1589064755

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This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 2
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 2

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-08-29

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 1589064488

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This paper examines contractionary currency crashes in developing countries. It explores the causes of India’s productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. The paper finds evidence that the trigger may have been an attitudinal shift by the government in the early 1980s that, unlike the reforms of the 1990s, was pro-business rather than pro-market in character, favoring the interests of existing businesses rather than new entrants or consumers. A relatively small shift elicited a large productivity response, because India was far away from its income possibility frontier.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 1
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-04-18

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 9781589064195

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This first issue of IMF Staff Papers for 2005 contains 7 papers that discuss: whether output recovered after the Asian crisis; the value of a country's trading partners to its own economic growth; whether interdependence is a factor in understanding the spread of currency crises; can remittance payments from expatriates be a reliable source of capital for economic development?; total factor productivity; designing a VAT for the energy trade in Russia and Ukraine; and lastly, a discussion of the reasons for central bank intervention in ERM-I since 1993

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, Special Issue, IMF Conference in Honor of Michael Mussa
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, Special Issue, IMF Conference in Honor of Michael Mussa

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-08-30

Total Pages: 196

ISBN-13: 9781589064478

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This paper focuses on expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation, which continued to be debated throughout the post-war period. Concerns rose during the late 1960s and early 1970s about rapid population growth smothering the potential for economic growth in developing countries were contradicted when, during the mid- and late-1970s, fertility rates began to decline rapidly. In policy-oriented institutions (and in most businesses and individual decision making), policymaking decisions are often guided by projections and forward-looking indicators. The case of Michael Mussa has been one of great anticipation, and of great accomplishment, and all the early optimistic forecasts about him have turned out to be correct. Within the sphere of economics, undoubtedly the most famous and widely used forecast—one, incidentally, that thus far has often been incorrect—is that based on the Malthusian doctrine of the relationship between resources and population.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-07-31

Total Pages: 248

ISBN-13: 1589068203

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Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on crosscountry analysis—which lacks transparency—or case studies—which lack statistical rigor. This paper applies a transparent econometric method drawn from the treatment evaluation literature (matching estimators) to make the comparison between treated (that is, open) and control (that is, closed) countries explicit while remaining within a statistical framework. Matching estimators highlight that common cross-country evidence is based on rather far-fetched country comparisons, which stem from the lack of common support of treated and control countries in the covariate space. The paper therefore advocates paying more attention to appropriate sample restriction in crosscountry macro research.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 2

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-06-29

Total Pages: 244

ISBN-13: 1589069129

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This paper introduces a new database of financial reforms covering 91 economies over 1973-2005. It describes the content of the database, the information sources utilized, and the coding rules used to create an index of financial reform. It also compares the database with other measures of financial liberalization, provides descriptive statistics, and discusses some possible applications. The database provides a multifaceted measure of reform, covering seven aspects of financial sector policy. Along each dimension the database provides a graded (rather than a binary) score, and allows for reversals.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 1
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-06-01

Total Pages: 248

ISBN-13: 1589067940

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This special issue brings together world-renowned experts to provide a systematic and critical analysis of the costs and benefits of financial globalization. Contributors include Kenneth Rogoff, Maurice Obstfeld, Dani Rodrik, and Frederic S. Mishkin.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 4

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-11-04

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13: 1589069102

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This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 2
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 56, No. 2

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-06-03

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 1589067959

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China’s growth performance since the start of economic reforms in 1978 has been impressive, but the gains have not been distributed equally across provinces. We use a nonparametric approach to analyze the variation in labor productivity growth across China’s provinces. This approach imposes less structure on the data than the standard growth accounting framework and allows for a breakdown of labor productivity into efficiency gains, technological progress, and capital deepening. We have the following results. First, we find that on average capital deepening accounts for about 75 percent of total labor productivity growth, while efficiency and technological improvements account for about 7 and 18 percent, respectively. Second, technical change is not neutral. Third, whereas improvement in efficiency contributes to convergence in labor productivity between provinces, technical change contributes to productivity disparity across provinces. Finally, we find that foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on efficiency growth and technical progress.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 1
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 57, No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-03-26

Total Pages: 288

ISBN-13: 1589069110

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Do highly indebted countries suffer from a debt overhang? Can debt relief foster their growth rates? To answer these important questions, this article looks at how the debt-growth relation varies with indebtedness levels, as well as with the quality of policies and institutions, in a panel of developing countries. The main findings are that, in countries with good policies and institutions, there is evidence of debt overhang when the net present value of debt rises above 20–25 percent of GDP; however, debt becomes irrelevant above 70–80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, thresholds appear to be lower, but the evidence of debt overhang is weaker and we cannot rule out that debt is always irrelevant. Indeed, in such countries, as well as in countries with high indebtedness levels, investment does not depend on debt levels. The analysis suggests that not all countries are likely to profit from debt relief, and thus that a one-size-fits-all debt relief approach might not be the most appropriate one.