IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-01-01

Total Pages: 168

ISBN-13: 1451973608

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper presents international evidence on the determinants of trade dynamics. It provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. A comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 4
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 4

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-01-01

Total Pages: 180

ISBN-13: 1451972776

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper describes the issue of corruption around the world. The paper surveys and discusses issues related to the causes, consequences, and scope of corruption, and possible corrective actions. It emphasizes the costs of corruption in terms of economic growth. It also emphasizes that the fight against corruption may not be cheap and cannot be independent from the reform of the state. If certain reforms are not made, corruption is likely to continue to be a problem regardless of actions directly aimed at curtailing it.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 2
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 2

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-01-01

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 1451974167

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper analyzes contagion and volatility with imperfect credit markets. The paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of shocks impinging on the economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model in which domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Financial spreads depend on a markup that compensates lenders, in particular, for the expected cost of contract enforcement. Higher volatility increases financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 1
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 1

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-01-01

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 1451974515

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper analyzes some leading indicators of currency crises, and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2001-10-10

Total Pages: 140

ISBN-13: 1451973748

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It looks at what precisely is meant by herding, the causes of herd behavior, the success of existing studies in identifying the phenomenon, and the effect that herding has on financial markets. The paper also surveys a selected number of studies that evaluated the demand for money using the error-correction model approach in the 1990s across a range of industrial and developing countries.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-01-01

Total Pages: 104

ISBN-13: 1451973683

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 52, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005-12-22

Total Pages: 193

ISBN-13: 1589064755

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

IMF Staff papers, Volume 42 No. 3
IMF Staff papers, Volume 42 No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1995-01-01

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 145197339X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper analyzes long-term exchange rate modeling. The paper reviews the literature that tests for a unit root in real exchange rates and the closely related work on testing for a unit root in the residual from a regression of the nominal exchange rate on relative prices. It argues that the balance of evidence is supportive of the existence of some form of long-term exchange rate relationship. The paper highlights that the form of this relationship, however, does not accord exactly with a traditional representation of the long-term exchange rate.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, No. 3

Author: Mr.Robert P. Flood

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-01-18

Total Pages: 204

ISBN-13: 1451973799

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper analyzes the financial implications of the 1956 crisis of nationalization of the Suez Canal by Egypt. It examines the regional distribution of public employment in Italy. The paper quantifies the impact of changes in the U.S. monetary policy on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. Specifically, the paper explores empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital markets. Modeling the IMF’s statistical discrepancy in the global current account is also discussed.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 3
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 51, No. 3

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-11-23

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 9781589063518

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper tests uncovered interest parity (UIP) using interest rates on longer maturity bonds for the Group of Seven countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP—all of the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to zero. The paper also analyzes the decision by a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact.