Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts
Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Author: Mr.John C Bluedorn

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-05-23

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1498315690

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We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.

Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts
Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts

Author: Mr.John C Bluedorn

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-05-24

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 149831712X

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We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

United States
United States

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-06-24

Total Pages: 95

ISBN-13: 1498320996

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The U.S. economy is in the longest expansion in recorded history. Unemployment is at levels not seen since the late 1960s, real wages are rising, and inflationary pressures remain subdued. Economic activity, while still growing above potential, is expected to slow to around 2.6 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2020.

European Economic Governance after the Eurozone and COVID-19 Crises
European Economic Governance after the Eurozone and COVID-19 Crises

Author: Ioannis Papadopoulos

Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing

Published: 2022-02-15

Total Pages: 330

ISBN-13: 1527579042

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The COVID-19 health crisis came as a tremendous shock to the world, and to the EU more particularly, only a few years after the Eurozone crisis. The pandemic exacerbated the old structural differences in the economic models between the South and the North of Europe. However, this time, the response of the EU was of a completely different nature: an impressive array of fiscal and monetary policy instruments was mobilized to counteract the shock of the pandemic and to restore confidence. Is there reason to be optimistic in these times of uncertainty? This volume explores possible answers to this question, bringing together several renowned European intellectuals and experts from the fields of economics, law, and public policy to offer their thoughts. The book will stimulate discussion on the quality of institutions and growth sustainability, and contains ideas on the future of Europe and the reorganization of European economic governance. It analyzes the basic fiscal and monetary policy tools used by the EU to tackle the Eurozone and COVID-19 pandemic crises. Several aspects of the EU Banking Union and possible structural reforms of the banking sector are also discussed, as is the role of Credit Rating Agencies as tools of economic prediction.

OECD Economic Surveys: Euro Area 2021
OECD Economic Surveys: Euro Area 2021

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2021-09-10

Total Pages: 98

ISBN-13: 9264523170

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The COVID-19 pandemic forced most euro area economies into repeated lockdowns in 2020 and early 2021 that lead the euro area into its deepest recession on record. The policy reaction to the crisis was large and rapid. It included, among others, significant monetary and fiscal stimuli, but also an ambitious European plan (“Next Generation EU”) to promote economic recovery financed by joint borrowing.

Staff Studies for the World Econ Outlook, August 1987
Staff Studies for the World Econ Outlook, August 1987

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1987-01-01

Total Pages: 164

ISBN-13: 1451943644

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This paper reviews the long-term growth performance of the major industrial countries and discusses some of the many factors that have been identified as possible sources of the marked slowdown in growth since the early 1970s. According to the view of different demographic developments across countries, it is useful to break the growth of output down into changes in tabor input and changes in labor productivity in order to obtain a basis for cross-country comparisons. Wage behavior in the face of energy price shocks appears to have differed considerably among the major industrial countries. Increased uncertainty, reflecting, in particular, changes in the international economic environment and the stop-go financial policies of several of the major countries during the 1970s, and is frequently cited as a possible reason for the slowdown in growth, mainly through its impact on private investment. Views on the contribution of slower net capital accumulation to the deceleration in growth depend upon assessments of whether the efficiency of investment declined significantly after 1973 and on assumptions made about technological change and the embodiment of technical progress.

World Economic Outlook, May 1999
World Economic Outlook, May 1999

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-05-28

Total Pages: 242

ISBN-13: 9781557758095

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The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

Economists and the Powerful
Economists and the Powerful

Author: Norbert Häring

Publisher: Anthem Press

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 261

ISBN-13: 0857284592

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"Economists and the Powerful: Convenient Theories, Distorted Facts, Ample Rewards" explores the workings of the modern global economy - an economy in which competition has been corrupted and power has a ubiquitous influence upon economic behavior. Based on empirical and theoretical studies by distinguished economists from both the past and present day, this book argues that the true workings of capitalism are very different from the popular myths voiced in mainstream economics. Offering a closer look at the history of economic doctrines - as well as how economists are incentivized - "Economists and the Powerful" exposes how, when and why the theme of power was erased from the radar screens of mainstream economic analysis - and the influence this subversive removal has had upon the modern financial world. For more information please see the book website: www.economistsandthepowerful.anthempressblog.com/