How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

Author: Mr.Michael J. Artis

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1996-08-01

Total Pages: 94

ISBN-13: 1451851251

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This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.


World Economic Outlook, October 1999

World Economic Outlook, October 1999

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-10-01

Total Pages: 268

ISBN-13: 9781557758392

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Supporting Studies for the World Economic Outlook, prepared by IMF staff, provide a more detailed analysis of issues recently covered in the main pubication. The current edition includes studies of globalization and growth, the future of the international financial system, currency crises, business cycles and exchange rates, supply-side issues in the contractions experienced in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union, and challenges to European labor markets posed by European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).


IEO Evaluation Report

IEO Evaluation Report

Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-04-30

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13: 1484363787

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The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.


The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations

The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations

Author: José Antonio Ocampo

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2018-02-23

Total Pages: 323

ISBN-13: 0192549502

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This edited volume documents the intellectual influence of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA) through its flagship publication, the World Economic and Social Survey (WESS) on its 70th Anniversary. First published in 1948, as World Economic Report, WESS is the oldest continuous post-World War II publication recording and analysing the performance of the global economy and social development trends. It offers relevant policy recommendations and highlights how well the United Nation's (UN) annual report has tracked global economic and social conditions, and how its analyses influenced and were influenced by the prevailing development discourse during the past seven decades. It also critically reflects on its policy recommendations and their influence on actual policy-making and the shaping of the world economy. The World Economy through the Lens of the United Nations reflects on this report, amongst others, to provide valuable insights on global economic challenges and their differential impacts on different groups of countries requiring global policy coordination as well as context specific policy responses. It demonstrates that UN reports have often been ahead of the curve and played a critical role in policy debate, especially in the area of international policy coordination and coherence for balanced global development, and offers rich and path-breaking analyses of contemporary problems of growth, development, trade and stabilization.


Procyclical Behavior of Institutional Investors During the Recent Financial Crisis

Procyclical Behavior of Institutional Investors During the Recent Financial Crisis

Author: Mr.Michael G Papaioannou

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-09-11

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1484375556

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This paper (i) provides evidence on the procyclical investment behavior of major institutional investors during the global financial crisis; (ii) identifies the main factors that could account for such behavior; (iii) discusses the implications of procyclical behavior; and (iv) proposes a framework for sound investment practices for long-term investors. Such procyclical investment behavior is understandable and may be considered rational from an individual institution’s perspective. However, our main conclusion is that behaving in a manner consistent with longterm investing would lead to better long-term, risk-adjusted returns and, importantly, could lessen the potential adverse effects of the procyclical investment behavior of institutional investors on global financial stability.


Empirical Models and Policy Making

Empirical Models and Policy Making

Author: Mary Morgan

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2003-09-02

Total Pages: 337

ISBN-13: 1134573138

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This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.


World Economic Outlook, April 2007

World Economic Outlook, April 2007

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-09-19

Total Pages: 323

ISBN-13: 158906626X

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The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.


Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies of the Euro Area

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2002-10-29

Total Pages: 120

ISBN-13: 1451812981

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This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability, including the reduction in the distortions of savings and investment behavior that stem from the interaction between nominal tax systems and inflation. It then goes on to evaluate arguments for maintaining a small positive inflation rate in the context of the euro area.