House Prices, Income Distribution, and Monetary Policy in the United States
House Prices, Income Distribution, and Monetary Policy in the United States

Author: Andrea Zehnder

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This thesis investigates in how far monetary policy decisions by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve influence the housing market in the United States. On the basis of three different home value tiers, it is studied in how far the sensitivities to changes in the level of the interest rate vary between the segment and what this implies for the income and wealth distribution among households. By estimating linear and spatial panel data models, evidence is found for substantial differences in the elasticities of the three home value tiers. While the top tier proves quite resilient, the bottom home value is disproportionally strong affected by changes in the interest rate level. These results are robust across different model specifications. Transferring the findings to the context of income segments, it is concluded that the monetary policy regime of the recent two decades, through the transmission channel on home values, has increased the income and wealth disparity among home owners.

The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market
The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market

Author: Francesco Beraldi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-01-06

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13:

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The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices, lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers, and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.

Heterogeneous Monetary Policy Transmission in the Housing Market
Heterogeneous Monetary Policy Transmission in the Housing Market

Author: Maria Christidou

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13:

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We document that the transmission of monetary policy to real house prices and housing investment is heterogeneous across the US states during the period 1983-2008 and relate this heterogeneity to various state level observable factors. We find that an expansionary monetary policy raises real house prices and residential investment at the national level, the increase being much larger for some states but smaller for others. For states with higher percentage of older people, population density, income inequality the responses are above those of the national aggregates; for states with higher poverty rates and more educated people the responses are below those of the national aggregates. Higher property tax rates are also associated with lower responses of housing investment and house prices.

The Housing Boom and Bust
The Housing Boom and Bust

Author: Thomas Sowell

Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)

Published: 2009-05-12

Total Pages: 194

ISBN-13: 0465018807

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Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.

House Prices and the Macroeconomy
House Prices and the Macroeconomy

Author: Charles Goodhart

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2006-12-21

Total Pages: 246

ISBN-13: 0191514039

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House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.

The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy
The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy

Author: Bruno Albuquerque

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-02-02

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13:

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We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates.

Central Banking, Monetary Policy and Income Distribution
Central Banking, Monetary Policy and Income Distribution

Author: Sylvio Kappes

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2023-03-02

Total Pages: 302

ISBN-13: 1800371934

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Part of The Elgar Series on Central Banking and Monetary Policy, this book explores the relationship between central banking, monetary policy and income distribution. The usual central bank mandate – that of exclusively fighting inflation – is being increasingly questioned by policymakers and academics. Many countries are finding that there is a need for broader mandates that will have an impact on economic activity, unemployment and other economic issues.

Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries
Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries

Author: Mr.Adrian Alter

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-28

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 1513530267

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To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have seemingly fallen over the past decade, while having increased in Canada. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price risks. In addition, capital flows are found to be significantly associated with future downside risks to major housing markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt.