There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.
This book examines the promises as well as the challenges the demographic dividend brings to sub-Saharan Africa as fertility rates in the region fall and the labor force grows. It offers a detailed analysis of what conditions must be met in order for the region to take full economic advantage of ongoing population dynamics. As the book makes clear, the region will need to accelerate reforms to cope with its demographic transition, in particular the decline of fertility. The continent will need to foster human capital formation through renewed efforts in the areas of education, health and employment. This will entail a true vision and determination on the part of African leaders and their development partners. The book will help readers to gain solid knowledge of the demographic trends and provide insights into socioeconomic policies that eventually might lead sub-Saharan Africa into a successful future.
Africa is poised on the edge of a potential takeoff to sustained economic growth. This takeoff can be abetted by a demographic dividend from the changes in population age structure. Declines in child mortality, followed by declines in fertility, produce a 'bulge' generation and a large number of working age people, giving a boost to the economy. In the short run lower fertility leads to lower youth dependency rates and greater female labor force participation outside the home. Smaller family sizes also mean more resources to invest in the health and education per child boosting worker productivity. In the long run increased life spans from health improvements mean that this large, high-earning cohort will also want to save for retirement, creating higher savings and investments, leading to further productivity gains. Two things are required for the demographic dividend to generate an African economic takeoff. The first is to speed up the fertility decline that is currently slow or stalled in many countries. The second is economic policies that take advantage of the opportunity offered by demography. While demographic change can produce more, and high quality, workers, this potential workforce needs to be productively employed if Africa is to reap the dividend. However, once underway, the relationship between demographic change and human development works in both directions, creating a virtuous cycle that can accelerate fertility decline, social development, and economic growth. Empirical evidence points to three key factors for speeding the fertility transition: child health, female education, and women's empowerment, particularly through access to family planning. Harnessing the dividend requires job creation for the large youth cohorts entering working age, and encouraging foreign investment until domestic savings and investment increase. The appropriate mix of policies in each country depends on their stage of the demographic transition.
This book discusses policies to achieve inclusive growth in India and realise the demographic dividend, which will end by 2040 when India will become an aging society. India is the world's fastest growing large economy, but jobs are not growing equally rapidly. The size of India's youth workforce is worrying, and the largely informal workforce is not covered by social insurance. Universal elementary education, despite the Right to Education Act 2009, is yet to be achieved. Health outcomes have improved only slowly over the years. Furthermore, sanitation still remains a very serious problem. As an economist and former policy-maker, the author discusses specific policies to address these problems, well beyond what is currently being practised. The book also deals with the governance issues that need to be addressed before inclusive growth can be attained.
Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100. The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity, which if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend. We quantify the potential demographic dividend based on the experience of other regions. The dividend will vary across countries, depending on such factors as the initial working age population as well as the speed and magnitude of demographic transition. It will be critical to ensure that the right supportive policies, including those fostering human capital accumulation and job creation, are in place to translate this opportunity into concrete economic growth.
Examining the economic forces that will shape Africa's future. Africa’s Lions examines the economic growth experiences of six fast growing and/or economically dominant African countries. Expert African researchers offer unique perspectives into the challenges and issues in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa. Despite a growing body of research on African economies, very little has focused on the relationship between economic growth and employment outcomes at the detailed country level. A lack of empirical data has deprived policymakers of a robust evidence base on which to make informed decisions. By harnessing country-level household, firm, and national accounts data together with existing analytical country research—the authors have attempted to bridge this gap. The growth of the global working-age population to 2030 will be driven primarily by Africa, which means that the relationship between growth and employment should be understood within the context of each country’s projected demographic challenge and the associated implications for employment growth. A better understanding of the structure of each country’s workforce and the resulting implications for human capital development, the vulnerably employed, and the working poor, will be critical to informing the development policy agenda. As a group, the six countries profiled in Africa’s Lions will largely shape the continent's future. Each country chapter focuses on the complex interactions between economic growth and employment outcomes, within the individual Africa’s Lions context.
Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.
A well-known writer and speaker in forums all over the world, a list of Dr. Swaminathan’s writings and speeches goes to over 50 . This book collects together some of his more recent observations, edited for publication. It is evident from the range of issues discussed that the author’s mission in life is to foster a movement of hope and peace by eradicating hunger and poverty, for humankind to live in harmony with nature. Swaminathan stresses that sustainable development must be firmly rooted in the principles of ecology, social and gender equity, employment generation, and economic potential. Note: T&F does not sell or distribute the hardback in India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. This title is co-published with NIPA.
Young people in the Middle East (15–29 years old) constitute about one-third of the region's population. Growth rates for this age group trail only sub-Saharan Africa. This presents the region with an historic opportunity to build a lasting foundation for prosperity by harnessing the full potential of its young population. Yet young people in the Middle East face severe economic and social exclusion due to substandard education, high unemployment, and poverty. Thus the inclusion of youth is the most critical development challenge facing the Middle East today. A Generation in Waiting portrays the plight of young people, urging greater investment designed to improve the lives of this critical group. It brings together perspectives from the Maghreb to the Levant. Each chapter addresses the complex challenges facing young people in many areas of their lives: access to decent education, opportunities for quality employment, availability of housing and credit, and transitioning to marriage and family formation. This volume presents policy implications and sets an agenda for economic development, creating a more hopeful future for this and future generations in the Middle East. Selected contributors include Ragui Assaad (University of Minnesota), Brahim Boudarbat (University of Montreal), Jad Chaaban (American University in Beirut), Nader Kabbani (Syria Trust for Development), Taher Kanaan (Jordan Center for Public Policy Research and Dialogue), Djavad Salehi-Isfahani (Wolfensohn Center for Development and Virginia Tech), and Edward Sayre (University of Southern Mississippi).
This Selected Issues paper takes stock of Niger’s tools to directly and indirectly combat corruption and shows that shortcomings in public-sector governance take a toll on private-sector development, especially young firms and exporters. Measures to advance Niger’s anticorruption agenda are laid out. This paper describes Niger’s anti-corruption framework, discusses how broader public-sector governance reforms can contribute to curbing corruption, assesses the impact on the private sector, and suggests measures to advance anticorruption reforms. The authorities profess commitment to fight corruption and have taken steps to revamp the anti-corruption framework. Niger is also equipped with legal and regulatory audit bodies that contribute to combatting corruption and promoting good governance. Although the legal and regulatory framework for public procurement is sound, its effective implementation remains elusive. Recent progress in simplifying administrative procedures should discourage public officials from exploiting complex bureaucracy to extract bribes. Formal regression analysis confirms that firms subject to corruption record lower sales and productivity growth relative to those that do not pay bribe.
