Periods of euphoria followed by sudden crashes are a familiar phenomenon in economics. Such events have become known as "bubbles". These volumes bring together writings on such phenomena - with works centering upon some of the more colourful examples.
Periods of euphoria followed by sudden crashes are a familiar phenomenon in economics. Such events have become known as "bubbles". These volumes bring together writings on such phenomena - with works centering upon some of the more colourful examples.
Periods of euphoria followed by sudden crashes are a familiar phenomenon in economics. Such events have become known as "bubbles". These volumes bring together writings on such phenomena - with works centering upon some of the more colourful examples.
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Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.
The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event. In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.
In late September 1720 the South Sea bubble burst. The collapse of the South Sea Company's share price caused the first great British stock market crash, the repercussions of which were felt far beyond the City of London. Patrick Walsh's book traces for the first time the impact of the rise and fall of the South Sea bubble on the peripheries of the British state. Its primary focus is on Ireland, but Irish developments are placed within a comparative context, with special attention paid to Scotland. Drawing on an impressive array of evidence, including bank ledgers, private correspondence, pamphlets, newspapers, and contemporary literary sources, this book examines not only investment in London but also the impact of the bubble on the fate of non-metropolitan projects in the 'South Sea Year', notably the failed project for an Irish national bank. Central to the book is the lived experience of the bubble and the wider financial revolution. The stories of individual investors - their strategies, speculations, aspirations, gains, losses and misunderstandings - are employed to create a new, more personal narrative of the momentous events of 1720, showing how they impacted on the lives of the inhabitants of early eighteenth-century Britain and Ireland. Patrick Walsh is Irish Research Council CARA Postdoctoral Fellow at University College Dublin. He is the author of The Making of the Irish Protestant Ascendancy: The Life of William Conolly, 1662-1729 (Boydell Press, 2010).