This book analyzes the phenomenon of the unprecedentedly high U.S. current account deficit and its counterpart surpluses in the rest of the world. The book develops a four-region model focusing on the U.S., Europe, Asia and the oil-exporting countries in order to compute the real exchange rate changes which might accompany a reduction in the world's current account imbalances. In addition to the economics of a purely demand-side-driven world, the impact of a flexible supply side on the behavior of the relevant economic variables is modeled and analyzed.
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Crafting stimulus packages and financial bailouts to address immediate problems has for many reasons been a priority for policymakers. In this Council Special Report, however, Steven Dunaway argues that policymakers must go beyond these steps and tackle one of the root causes of today's crisis: imbalances between savings and investment in major countries. The report analyzes the nature of these imbalances, which occur when some countries, such as the United States, run large current account (essentially trade) deficits while others, such as China, maintain large surpluses. Dunaway identifies three features of the international financial system that have allowed the imbalances to persist, features that involve both floating and managed exchange rates as well as the issuance of reserve assets. In particular, he notes that the United States' status as an issuer of such assets has enabled it to finance a current account deficit. The report then prescribes a variety of steps to address global imbalances. Beyond stimulus packages around the world, it urges measures to raise savings (principally government savings) in the United States, reform labor and product markets in Europe and Japan to increase competition and flexibility, and boost domestic consumption in China. Finally, the report advocates improving International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance of member states' economic policies by reducing the role of the Fund's executive board and depoliticizing the selection of its senior management.
"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.
Global Development Finance (GDF), is the World Bank's annual review of recent trends in and prospects for financial flows to developing countries. It is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community. Vol I: Analysis and Outlook reviews recent trends in financial flows to developing countries. Vol II. Summary and Country Tables* includes comprehensive data for 138 countries, as well as summary data for regions and income groups. Also available on CD-ROM, with more than 200 historical time series from 1970 to 2005, and country group estimates for 2006. * Vol II. Summary and Country Tables
Global Development Finance (GDF), is the World Bank's annual review of recent trends in and prospects for financial flows to developing countries. It is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community. Vol I: Analysis and Outlook reviews recent trends in financial flows to developing countries. Also available as a two volume set, Vol II. Summary and Country Tables* includes comprehensive data for 138 countries, as well as summary data for regions and income groups.
The past few decades have witnessed the emergence of economic imbalances at the world level and within the euro zone. The failure of mainstream economics to accurately predict financial crises, or model the effects of finance-led growth, highlights the need for alternative frameworks. A key text, Global Imbalances and Financial Capitalism: Stock-Flow-Consistent Modelling demonstrates that Stock-Flow-Consistent models are well adapted to study this growth regime due to their ability to analyse the real and financial sides of the economy in an integrated way. This approach is combined with an analysis of exchange rate misalignments using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) methodology, which serves to give a synthetic view of international imbalances. Together, these models describe how global and regional imbalances are created, as well as suggest appropriate tools through which they may be reduced. The book also considers alternative economic policies in the euro zone (international risk sharing, fiscal federalism, eurobonds, European investments, a multispeed euro zone) alongside alternative monetary policies. In particular, it examines the possibilities of using SDR (Special Drawing Rights) as a reserve asset to be issued to fight a global recession, to support the development of low-income countries, or as an anchor to improve global monetary stability. This text will be of interest to students, scholars, and researchers of economic theory and international monetary economics. It will also appeal to professional organisations who supervise international relations.
This book is the result of a workshop on the effects of globalization on Asian and European countries, organized by Marc Uzan and the Austrian Ministry of Finance in April 2006. Bringing together key academics, policy makers and private market participants, these chapters cover the current debate of global imbalances and the way to resolve the disequilibrium in the international monetary system and understand the need for international cooperation among the different monetary areas of the world. Various important points come out of the book; firstly there is an emphasis on the difficulties for Europeans and Asians to find common positions vis-à-vis global imbalances due to different exchange rate regimes throughout Asia preventing similar responses. The role of the US dollar as a world currency is also discussed, as well as EU regional monetary cooperation and an analysis of the Euro. The implementation of economic policy to redress global imbalances is also considered, as is the emergence of China on the world stage and its industrial development projects. These questions and the way the international financial community will resolve them, will have a huge impact in the functioning of the international monetary system. The current unwinding of the global imbalances that we are facing with the global market disruptions since August 2007, demonstrate that a new geography of international finance is emerging between Europe and Asia. The book addresses also the way that a dialog in the field in monetary arena needs to be structured between Europe and Asia.
