Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters' role in the global imbalances debate. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil-exporting countries and the rest of the world. We find that fiscal policy has a much stronger effect on the current account of oil exporters than on current accounts of other countries. The current account adjustment of oil-exporting countries is also faster. Fiscal policy of oil exporters can have a significant and speedy impact on global imbalances. The impact via the adjustment of exchange rates might not be effective.
As the world economy recovered and grew, the price of oil rose markedly, peaking at almost $70 per barrel in 2005 before ending the year at $61 per barrel. Today, the price continues to hover at around $65. This sustained rise in prices has generated hundreds of billions of dollars of extra revenue for oil exporting countries (e.g. the Bank of International Settlements estimates $1.3 trillion to OPEC since end-1998). This Occasional Paper examines the major sources and uses of this windfall and its impact on global imbalances. The paper is not intended to be a comprehensive assessment of the petrodollar phenomenon, but rather to identify issues that warrant further examination. Key findings of our analysis suggest that: From 2002 to 2005, oil exporters appear to be spending proceeds from the oil windfall relatively evenly on increased imports and reserve accumulation, but import spending and the percentage spent on imports will likely rise over time. Some oil exporters are responding to the windfall by increasing reserves, retiring debt, and setting aside money for future generations, measures which should help insulate them from oil price volatility. Many countries are also channeling financing to productive investments intended to support growth, in contrast to the last oil boom. However in some cases, domestic spending increases have included hefty public sector wage hikes. The complexity and integration of financial markets make it difficult to assess fully where the oil windfall is being invested, though it is clear that domestic equity markets, and, to a lesser extent, real estate markets in the Gulf, are benefiting. Oil producers' current account surpluses have increased already large global imbalances. While inflation remains broadly contained in oil-exporting countries with pegged exchange rates, more flexible exchange rates would allow better control over domestic monetary conditions and promote efficient external adjustment.
This book analyzes the phenomenon of the unprecedentedly high U.S. current account deficit and its counterpart surpluses in the rest of the world. The book develops a four-region model focusing on the U.S., Europe, Asia and the oil-exporting countries in order to compute the real exchange rate changes which might accompany a reduction in the world's current account imbalances. In addition to the economics of a purely demand-side-driven world, the impact of a flexible supply side on the behavior of the relevant economic variables is modeled and analyzed.
The world economy is just starting to recover from the most disastrous episode in the history of financial globalisation. Understanding what happened is essential. Anton Brender and Florence Pisani, both economists with Dexia Asset Management and teaching at Paris-Dauphine University, argue in this book that the main problems were deeply rooted and are to be found in two tightly linked developments that for many years were left largely uncontrolled: the increase in the intensity of international transfers of savings - the so-called 'global imbalances' - and a wave of innovations - globalised finance - that have changed the way savings and the risks associated with their investment can be transferred. Globalised finance allowed continuously increasing amounts of emerging countries' savings, invested in 'risk-free' assets, to finance loans that were far from being risk-free. The risks attendant on those loans did not vanish of course: they were carried by the risk-takers of the globalised financial system. Hedge-funds, investment banks, off-balance-sheet vehicles, etc. functioned here as parts of a genuine alternative banking system, taking on the bulk of the liquidity, interest-rate and credit risks generated by the mismatch between the assets that emerging regions' savers were ready to - or could - invest in and the liabilities developed countries' borrowers issued. Unfortunately, no one was in charge of keeping in check either the quantity of risk being accumulated in this way or the quality of the loans generating those risks. The consequence was terrible: the only force that could finally rein in the continuous deepening of the global imbalances was the collapse of globalised finance.
An essential reference to all facets of the world economy Increasing economic globalization has made understanding the world economy more important than ever. From trade agreements to offshore outsourcing to foreign aid, this two-volume encyclopedia explains the key elements of the world economy and provides a first step to further research for students and scholars in public policy, international studies, business, and the broader social sciences, as well as for economic policy professionals. Written by an international team of contributors, this comprehensive reference includes more than 300 up-to-date entries covering a wide range of topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development. These topics include concepts and principles, models and theory, institutions and agreements, policies and instruments, analysis and tools, and sectors and special issues. Each entry includes cross-references and a list of sources for further reading and research. Complete with an index and a table of contents that groups entries by topic, The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy is an essential resource for anyone who needs to better understand the global economy. More than 300 alphabetically arranged articles on topics in international trade, finance, production, and economic development International team of contributors Annotated list of further reading with each article Topical list of entries Full index and cross-references Entry categories and sample topics: Concepts and principles: globalization, anti-globalization, fair trade, foreign direct investment, international migration, economic development, multinational enterprises Models and theory: Heckscher-Ohlin model, internalization theory, New Trade Theory, North-South trade, Triffin dilemma Institutions and agreements: European Union, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, World Bank, Doha Round, international investment agreements Policies and instruments: dollar standard, international aid, sanctions, tariffs Analysis and tools: exchange rate forecasting, effective protection, monetary policy rules Sectors and special issues: child labor, corporate governance, the digital divide, health and globalization, illegal drugs trade, petroleum, steel
Since the mid-1990s, sustainability of large and persistent current account positions have been attracting much attention from policy makers and economists alike. Alongside global imbalances, sustainability of imbalances within the euro area, which started widening shortly after the introduction of the euro, raised much concern. While there exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on sustainability of external imbalances, a systematic survey has been lacking so far. Angélique Herzberg fills this gap by examining a broad range of established sustainability measures concerning their applicability to the various global and intra-euro imbalances of the recent past. Furthermore, the author examines the existence of feedback effects from an economy ́s net international investment position to its trade balance.
This paper analyzes the cross-border risks that could result from a decarbonization of the world economy. We develop a typology of cross-border risks and their respective channels. Our qualitative and quantitative scenario analysis suggests that the mid-transition – a period during which fossil-fuel and low-carbon energy systems co-exist and transform at a rapid pace – could have profound stability and resilience implications for global trade and the international financial system.
