Global House Price Fluctuations
Global House Price Fluctuations

Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-02-06

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1475591608

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We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Global House Price Fluctuations
Global House Price Fluctuations

Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-02-06

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1475523629

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We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy
Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy

Author: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-01-29

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 1475550936

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In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies.

House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions
House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions

Author: Adrian Alter

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-11-28

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1484385691

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We examine the relationship between house price synchronicity and global financial conditions across 40 countries and about 70 cities over the past three decades. The role played by cross-border banking flows in residential property markets is examined as well. Looser global financial conditions are associated with greater house price synchronicity, even after controlling for bilateral financial integration. Moreover, we find that synchronicity across major cities may differ from that of their respective countries’, perhaps due to the influence of global investors on local house price dynamics. Policy choices such as macroprudential tools and exchange rate flexibility appear to be relevant for mitigating the sensitivity of domestic housing markets to the rest of the world.

House Price Synchronization and Financial Openness: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach
House Price Synchronization and Financial Openness: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach

Author: Mitsuru Katagiri

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-09-28

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1484378245

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This paper investigates the developments in house price synchronization across countries by a dynamic factor model using a country- and city-level dataset, and examines what drives the synchronization. The empirical results indicate that: (i) the degree of synchronization has been rising since the 1970s, and (ii) a large heterogeneity in the degree of synchronization exists across countries and cities. A panel and cross-sectional regression analysis show that the heterogeneity of synchronization is partly accounted for by the progress in financial and trade openness. Also, the city-level analysis implies that the international synchronization is mainly driven by the city-level connectivity between large and international cities.

The Global Property Investor's Toolkit
The Global Property Investor's Toolkit

Author: Colin Barrow

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2008-04-15

Total Pages: 464

ISBN-13: 9781841127743

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How real estate investors and speculators can take their business global The real estate boom has gone global, and those successful investors who want to keep up their profits are starting to look at emerging markets on other continents. Markets in South America, Eastern Europe, India, and Asia are currently experiencing the rapid growth that mature domestic markets experienced a few years ago. Based on the author's personal experience buying and selling dozens of overseas properties, this book provides all the relevant data investors need to evaluate properties and markets anywhere in the world. Colin Barrow (Hayle, Cornwall, UK) is a non-executive director of two venture capital funds and serves on the UK Government Task Force for Business.

Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies
Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies

Author: Ms.Nan Geng

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-07-13

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1484367626

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House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.

Hot Property
Hot Property

Author: Rob Nijskens

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-06-14

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 3030116743

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This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.

The Global Financial Cycle: Quantities Versus Prices
The Global Financial Cycle: Quantities Versus Prices

Author: Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-07-19

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13:

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We quantify the importance of the Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) in domestic credit and various local asset prices and compare it with that in capital flows. Using 2000-2021 data for 76 economies and a simple methodology, we find that each respective series’ common factor and conventional US GFCy-drivers together typically explain about 30 percent of the variation in domestic credit, up to 40 percent in stock market returns, about 60 percent in house prices, and more than 75 percent in interest rates and government bond spreads. These median estimates much exceed the 25 percent for capital flows. Our findings help to put the existing literature into context and have important implications for economic and financial stability policies, notably for the usage of quantity tools (e.g., FX interventions) that impact asset prices.

Social Policy and Change in East Asia
Social Policy and Change in East Asia

Author: James Lee

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2013-12-11

Total Pages: 219

ISBN-13: 0739174576

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Social Policy and Change in East Asia is a collection of essays from a group of indigenous East Asian social policy researchers who met bi-annually to discuss social development issues. The book’s focus is the policy responses of respective East Asian government since the 2008 financial tsunami struck the region. Together, the essays in Social Policy and Change in East Asia argue that traditional social policy approach has failed to account for the problem of economic volatility and to devise policy measures that can promote long-term stability. Avoiding a static and Eurocentric approach, the authors of this book seek to unravel the meaning of the social development approach in various policy contexts. This book supports a dynamic understanding of social policy formulation that does not neglect the problem of economic turbulence in policy and planning.