Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Author: Tommy Bengtsson

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-03-28

Total Pages: 341

ISBN-13: 3030050750

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This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.


Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author: Stefano Mazzuco

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-09-28

Total Pages: 261

ISBN-13: 3030424723

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This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.


Linear Processes in Function Spaces

Linear Processes in Function Spaces

Author: Denis Bosq

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 295

ISBN-13: 1461211549

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The main subject of this book is the estimation and forecasting of continuous time processes. It leads to a development of the theory of linear processes in function spaces. Mathematical tools are presented, as well as autoregressive processes in Hilbert and Banach spaces and general linear processes and statistical prediction. Implementation and numerical applications are also covered. The book assumes knowledge of classical probability theory and statistics.


Introduction to Functional Data Analysis

Introduction to Functional Data Analysis

Author: Piotr Kokoszka

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2017-09-27

Total Pages: 371

ISBN-13: 1498746691

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Introduction to Functional Data Analysis provides a concise textbook introduction to the field. It explains how to analyze functional data, both at exploratory and inferential levels. It also provides a systematic and accessible exposition of the methodology and the required mathematical framework. The book can be used as textbook for a semester-long course on FDA for advanced undergraduate or MS statistics majors, as well as for MS and PhD students in other disciplines, including applied mathematics, environmental science, public health, medical research, geophysical sciences and economics. It can also be used for self-study and as a reference for researchers in those fields who wish to acquire solid understanding of FDA methodology and practical guidance for its implementation. Each chapter contains plentiful examples of relevant R code and theoretical and data analytic problems. The material of the book can be roughly divided into four parts of approximately equal length: 1) basic concepts and techniques of FDA, 2) functional regression models, 3) sparse and dependent functional data, and 4) introduction to the Hilbert space framework of FDA. The book assumes advanced undergraduate background in calculus, linear algebra, distributional probability theory, foundations of statistical inference, and some familiarity with R programming. Other required statistics background is provided in scalar settings before the related functional concepts are developed. Most chapters end with references to more advanced research for those who wish to gain a more in-depth understanding of a specific topic.


Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Author: Gregory C. Reinsel

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2003-10-31

Total Pages: 384

ISBN-13: 9780387406190

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Now available in paperback, this book introduces basic concepts and methods useful in the analysis and modeling of multivariate time series data. It concentrates on the time-domain analysis of multivariate time series, and assumes univariate time series analysis, while covering basic topics such as stationary processes and their covariance matrix structure, vector AR, MA, and ARMA models, forecasting, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation for ARMA models, associated likelihood ratio testing procedures.


Functional Data Analysis with R and MATLAB

Functional Data Analysis with R and MATLAB

Author: James Ramsay

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2009-06-29

Total Pages: 213

ISBN-13: 0387981853

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The book provides an application-oriented overview of functional analysis, with extended and accessible presentations of key concepts such as spline basis functions, data smoothing, curve registration, functional linear models and dynamic systems Functional data analysis is put to work in a wide a range of applications, so that new problems are likely to find close analogues in this book The code in R and Matlab in the book has been designed to permit easy modification to adapt to new data structures and research problems


Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis

Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis

Author: Frédéric Ferraty

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-11-22

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 0387366202

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Modern apparatuses allow us to collect samples of functional data, mainly curves but also images. On the other hand, nonparametric statistics produces useful tools for standard data exploration. This book links these two fields of modern statistics by explaining how functional data can be studied through parameter-free statistical ideas. At the same time it shows how functional data can be studied through parameter-free statistical ideas, and offers an original presentation of new nonparametric statistical methods for functional data analysis.


Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author: Rob J Hyndman

Publisher: OTexts

Published: 2018-05-08

Total Pages: 380

ISBN-13: 0987507117

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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.


Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Author: E. Tabeau

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2001-02-28

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 0792368339

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Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.


Applying Generalized Linear Models

Applying Generalized Linear Models

Author: James K. Lindsey

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2008-01-15

Total Pages: 265

ISBN-13: 038722730X

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This book describes how generalised linear modelling procedures can be used in many different fields, without becoming entangled in problems of statistical inference. The author shows the unity of many of the commonly used models and provides readers with a taste of many different areas, such as survival models, time series, and spatial analysis, and of their unity. As such, this book will appeal to applied statisticians and to scientists having a basic grounding in modern statistics. With many exercises at the end of each chapter, it will equally constitute an excellent text for teaching applied statistics students and non- statistics majors. The reader is assumed to have knowledge of basic statistical principles, whether from a Bayesian, frequentist, or direct likelihood point of view, being familiar at least with the analysis of the simpler normal linear models, regression and ANOVA.