Forecasting the Naval Officer Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay
Forecasting the Naval Officer Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay

Author: Mark Chipman

Publisher:

Published: 1979

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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The objective of this effort was to provide a detailed description of the analysis and procedures used to formulate a model for forcasting Navy officer force structures and basic pay obligations. The model, which will be used to monitor the service age characteristics of the force and its costs in basic pay, is known as the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor, Officer (NAPPO). NAPPO relies upon historical USN, USNR, USNT, and All Navy (ALNAV) quarterly force structure files dating back to 1963. Time series analysis techniques were applied to these files to find a particular set of time series models that would be appropriate for forecasting the LOS marginal distribution of each array. Various combinations of these forecasts were then compared to obtain a 'best' forecast for the ALNAV LOS distribution. Additional statistical procedures, previously developed for the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor, Enlisted (NAPPE) model, were used for (1) deriving the interior of the force structure matrix given the forecasted LOS and inputted pay grade marginal distributions, (2) forecasting the force structure for personnel with less than 1 year of service or more than 30 years, (3) costing the force structure, (4) estimating average strength, and (5) validating the model. The statistical techniques employed in NAPPO proved to be highly accurate in producing estimates of officer basic pay. Validation results indicated forecasting errors of less that .3 percent for FY76, FY77, and FY78. NAPPO's predictions for mean LOS of the force also indicated a high degree of accuracy. As expected, the accuracy of the forecasts generally diminished as the forecast lead time increased.

Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay
Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay

Author: Mark Chipman

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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A primary concern of Navy management is the ability to meet the Navy's manpower requirements in terms of both the quantity and quality of personnel. Recruitment, promotion, retirement, and other managerial policies are all directly related to and restricted by the Military Personnel, Navy (MPN) budget. Because over 50 percent of the MPN budget is allocated for enlisted basic pay, special attention must be given to the accurate forecasting of enlisted populations. The Naval Pay Predictor, Enlisted (NAPPE) Model, designed to accomplish this objective, relies solely upon historical population data and user-supplied enlisted end-strengths. Time series analysis is used to determine a general set of forecasting models that adequately explain the historical data. Other statistical procedures, including those employed in costing the enlisted force and in estimating recruit input populations, are also detailed. Validation results indicating errors of less than .1 percent for total enlisted basic pay are presented. (Author).

Aft and Fore
Aft and Fore

Author: Harry Thie

Publisher: Minnesota Historical Society

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 226

ISBN-13: 9780833032706

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Focusing on its ability to meet current and future demands, the Navy recently examined its officer structure and asked RAND to analyze changes in authorizations and inventory, to compare authorizations and inventory and potential gaps in costs related to them, and to estimate personnel requirements for the years 2010 and 2017. Based on their research, the authors determine trends and cycles in officer requirements and inventory as well as the evolution of policy and the management of the officer corps.

An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).
An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).

Author: Allan Ray Walker

Publisher:

Published: 1975

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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The Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model) is used by the Bureau of Naval Personnel as a tool for predicting the total annual basic pay for the enlisted force as an input to the budget process. A major source of error in the model was found to be the prediction of the length of service (LOS) vector, and an attempt to improve this prediction was made. The extreme complexity of the model was found to be unnecessary, and a simple exponential smoothing subroutine for LOS prediction did as well or better than the original model. It was also found that a double exponential smoothing subroutine, taking into account the trends in the force structure, would almost uniformly improve the one year prediction from the model.

Manpower and Personnel Needs for a Transformed Naval Force
Manpower and Personnel Needs for a Transformed Naval Force

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2008-01-25

Total Pages: 170

ISBN-13: 030917807X

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The Department of Defense (DOD) is committed to transforming the nation's armed forces to meet the military challenges of the future. One approach to achieving this transformation is by leveraging advances in science and technology. New technologies and innovations are integral to today's military actions, and associated changes have rippled through all aspects of operations, highlighting the need for changes in policies related to military personnel. At the request of the Force Chief of Naval Operations, the NRC reviewed the military manpower and personnel policies and studies currently underway in the DOD and developed an implementation strategy for the Department of the Navy's future military manpower and personnel needs. This book presents an introduction to current personnel policies of and concerns facing the Naval forces; an assessment of demographic, technological, and other forces affecting future personnel needs and availability; a summary and assessment of previous studies; an examination of the role of research tools in implementing personnel policy change; and an analysis of obstacles to and strategies for transforming the Naval forces.