Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay
Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay

Author: Mark Chipman

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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A primary concern of Navy management is the ability to meet the Navy's manpower requirements in terms of both the quantity and quality of personnel. Recruitment, promotion, retirement, and other managerial policies are all directly related to and restricted by the Military Personnel, Navy (MPN) budget. Because over 50 percent of the MPN budget is allocated for enlisted basic pay, special attention must be given to the accurate forecasting of enlisted populations. The Naval Pay Predictor, Enlisted (NAPPE) Model, designed to accomplish this objective, relies solely upon historical population data and user-supplied enlisted end-strengths. Time series analysis is used to determine a general set of forecasting models that adequately explain the historical data. Other statistical procedures, including those employed in costing the enlisted force and in estimating recruit input populations, are also detailed. Validation results indicating errors of less than .1 percent for total enlisted basic pay are presented. (Author).

Forecasting the Naval Officer Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay
Forecasting the Naval Officer Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay

Author: Mark Chipman

Publisher:

Published: 1979

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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The objective of this effort was to provide a detailed description of the analysis and procedures used to formulate a model for forcasting Navy officer force structures and basic pay obligations. The model, which will be used to monitor the service age characteristics of the force and its costs in basic pay, is known as the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor, Officer (NAPPO). NAPPO relies upon historical USN, USNR, USNT, and All Navy (ALNAV) quarterly force structure files dating back to 1963. Time series analysis techniques were applied to these files to find a particular set of time series models that would be appropriate for forecasting the LOS marginal distribution of each array. Various combinations of these forecasts were then compared to obtain a 'best' forecast for the ALNAV LOS distribution. Additional statistical procedures, previously developed for the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor, Enlisted (NAPPE) model, were used for (1) deriving the interior of the force structure matrix given the forecasted LOS and inputted pay grade marginal distributions, (2) forecasting the force structure for personnel with less than 1 year of service or more than 30 years, (3) costing the force structure, (4) estimating average strength, and (5) validating the model. The statistical techniques employed in NAPPO proved to be highly accurate in producing estimates of officer basic pay. Validation results indicated forecasting errors of less that .3 percent for FY76, FY77, and FY78. NAPPO's predictions for mean LOS of the force also indicated a high degree of accuracy. As expected, the accuracy of the forecasts generally diminished as the forecast lead time increased.

The Accuracy of Simple Enlisted Force Forecasts
The Accuracy of Simple Enlisted Force Forecasts

Author: David Waltz Grissmer

Publisher:

Published: 1985

Total Pages: 88

ISBN-13:

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This Note presents and analysis of the historical accuracy with which enlisted force manpower strengths can be forecast using simple and widely used modeling assumptions. The accuracy of one-, three-, and five-year forecasts is presented for enlisted personnel groups from all four military services for fiscal years 1971 through 1980. Estimating the accuracy of forecasts and analyzing the pattern of errors allow an assessment of the need for more sophisticated techniques, help in developing a strategy for disaggregating enlisted groups when forecasting, and form a basis for the design of an improved enlisted forecasting system. The author finds that the models tested provide reasonably accurate short-term forecasts of the level and structure of enlisted personnel strength. However, long-term forecasts show very large errors for certain enlisted groups. The error pattern, which is stable across the services, shows a distinct structure when estimated by year of service. Keywords: Enlisted personnel; Forecasting; Mathematical models.

Techniques for Estimating Pay Entry Base Date Enlisted Personnel Force Structures from Data Categorized by Total Active Federal Military Service
Techniques for Estimating Pay Entry Base Date Enlisted Personnel Force Structures from Data Categorized by Total Active Federal Military Service

Author: Jules I. Borack

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13:

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The purpose of this research effort is to develop and assess the accuracy of mathematical techniques which estimate PEBD force structure data (and, concurrently, obtain cost estimates) from TAFMS force structure data. Statistical techniques involving marginal estimation, cell-by-cell conversion, and lagged correlation and regression models were developed and evaluated in terms of their ability to both accurately estimate individual force structure cells and obtain the cost of the entire force structure matrix. The data base studied consisted of series of annual TAFMS and PEBD force structure matrices for the period FY1966-FY1976. Analysis consisted of applying various statistical techniques to 6-year streams of data and applying the obtained results to convert TAFMS data of the following year to PEBD. In this way, estimates of PEBD force structures for FY1973-FY1976 were obtained and compared to the actual PEBD matrix of the corresponding year. Choice of statistical technique for implementation was based upon both theoretical considerations and the result of these comparisons. A statistical technique based upon apportioned highest lagged correlation linear regression estimates provided highly accurate force-structure cost estimates. A statistical technique based upon apportionment of prior-year conversion factors also provided surprisingly accurate cost estimates. Utilization of either an apportioned linear regression or apportioned prior-year conversion factor technique substantially improved estimates obtained from naive costing of TAFMS data matrices.

An Analysis of Pay for Enlisted Personnel
An Analysis of Pay for Enlisted Personnel

Author: Beth J. Asch

Publisher: RAND Corporation

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13:

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The briefing examines how the pay of enlisted personnel compares to that of their civilian counterparts, how these comparisons have changed over time, how the FY 2000 pay actions affect the comparisons, and how recruiting and retention have fared recently.

An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).
An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).

Author: Allan Ray Walker

Publisher:

Published: 1975

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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The Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model) is used by the Bureau of Naval Personnel as a tool for predicting the total annual basic pay for the enlisted force as an input to the budget process. A major source of error in the model was found to be the prediction of the length of service (LOS) vector, and an attempt to improve this prediction was made. The extreme complexity of the model was found to be unnecessary, and a simple exponential smoothing subroutine for LOS prediction did as well or better than the original model. It was also found that a double exponential smoothing subroutine, taking into account the trends in the force structure, would almost uniformly improve the one year prediction from the model.

Estimation of Pay Entry Base Date (PEBD) Enlisted Personnel Rating Force Structures from Total Active Federal Military Service (TAFMS) Data
Estimation of Pay Entry Base Date (PEBD) Enlisted Personnel Rating Force Structures from Total Active Federal Military Service (TAFMS) Data

Author: Jules Borack

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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The purpose of this research effort is to obtain and evaluate a mathematical technique to estimate PEBD rating force structure inventories from TAFMS force structure data. Exponential smoothing techniques were utilized to obtain estimates of TAFMS to PEBD rating inventory conversion factors. The data base studied consisted of all TAFMS and PEBD rating inventories for the period FY1971-1976. The obtained factors were then employed to estimate 30 June 1976 PEBD rating inventories from the corresponding 30 June 1976 TAFMS rating inventories. In this way, estimates of 96 PEBD rating inventories were obtained and compared to the actual PEBD inventory of the corresponding rate code. A statistical technique based upon exponential smoothing provides accurate PEBD rating and ALNAV force structure estimates.

Aft and Fore
Aft and Fore

Author: Harry Thie

Publisher: Minnesota Historical Society

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 226

ISBN-13: 9780833032706

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Focusing on its ability to meet current and future demands, the Navy recently examined its officer structure and asked RAND to analyze changes in authorizations and inventory, to compare authorizations and inventory and potential gaps in costs related to them, and to estimate personnel requirements for the years 2010 and 2017. Based on their research, the authors determine trends and cycles in officer requirements and inventory as well as the evolution of policy and the management of the officer corps.