Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices
Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices

Author: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1991-10-01

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1451951116

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This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.

Advances in DEA Theory and Applications
Advances in DEA Theory and Applications

Author: Kaoru Tone

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2017-04-12

Total Pages: 579

ISBN-13: 1118946707

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A key resource and framework for assessing the performance of competing entities, including forecasting models Advances in DEA Theory and Applications provides a much-needed framework for assessing the performance of competing entities with special emphasis on forecasting models. It helps readers to determine the most appropriate methodology in order to make the most accurate decisions for implementation. Written by a noted expert in the field, this text provides a review of the latest advances in DEA theory and applications to the field of forecasting. Designed for use by anyone involved in research in the field of forecasting or in another application area where forecasting drives decision making, this text can be applied to a wide range of contexts, including education, health care, banking, armed forces, auditing, market research, retail outlets, organizational effectiveness, transportation, public housing, and manufacturing. This vital resource: Explores the latest developments in DEA frameworks for the performance evaluation of entities such as public or private organizational branches or departments, economic sectors, technologies, and stocks Presents a novel area of application for DEA; namely, the performance evaluation of forecasting models Promotes the use of DEA to assess the performance of forecasting models in a wide area of applications Provides rich, detailed examples and case studies Advances in DEA Theory and Applications includes information on a balanced benchmarking tool that is designed to help organizations examine their assumptions about their productivity and performance.

Multi-Modal Sentiment Analysis
Multi-Modal Sentiment Analysis

Author: Hua Xu

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-11-26

Total Pages: 278

ISBN-13: 9819957761

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The natural interaction ability between human and machine mainly involves human-machine dialogue ability, multi-modal sentiment analysis ability, human-machine cooperation ability, and so on. To enable intelligent computers to have multi-modal sentiment analysis ability, it is necessary to equip them with a strong multi-modal sentiment analysis ability during the process of human-computer interaction. This is one of the key technologies for efficient and intelligent human-computer interaction. This book focuses on the research and practical applications of multi-modal sentiment analysis for human-computer natural interaction, particularly in the areas of multi-modal information feature representation, feature fusion, and sentiment classification. Multi-modal sentiment analysis for natural interaction is a comprehensive research field that involves the integration of natural language processing, computer vision, machine learning, pattern recognition, algorithm, robot intelligent system, human-computer interaction, etc. Currently, research on multi-modal sentiment analysis in natural interaction is developing rapidly. This book can be used as a professional textbook in the fields of natural interaction, intelligent question answering (customer service), natural language processing, human-computer interaction, etc. It can also serve as an important reference book for the development of systems and products in intelligent robots, natural language processing, human-computer interaction, and related fields.

Learning Deep Architectures for AI
Learning Deep Architectures for AI

Author: Yoshua Bengio

Publisher: Now Publishers Inc

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 145

ISBN-13: 1601982941

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Theoretical results suggest that in order to learn the kind of complicated functions that can represent high-level abstractions (e.g. in vision, language, and other AI-level tasks), one may need deep architectures. Deep architectures are composed of multiple levels of non-linear operations, such as in neural nets with many hidden layers or in complicated propositional formulae re-using many sub-formulae. Searching the parameter space of deep architectures is a difficult task, but learning algorithms such as those for Deep Belief Networks have recently been proposed to tackle this problem with notable success, beating the state-of-the-art in certain areas. This paper discusses the motivations and principles regarding learning algorithms for deep architectures, in particular those exploiting as building blocks unsupervised learning of single-layer models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines, used to construct deeper models such as Deep Belief Networks.

Crude Volatility
Crude Volatility

Author: Robert McNally

Publisher: Columbia University Press

Published: 2017-01-17

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13: 0231543689

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As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

Commodity Prices and Markets
Commodity Prices and Markets

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2011-03

Total Pages: 346

ISBN-13: 0226386899

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation
Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation

Author: Samya Beidas-Strom

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-12-12

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1498333486

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How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Time-Series Forecasting
Time-Series Forecasting

Author: Chris Chatfield

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2000-10-25

Total Pages: 281

ISBN-13: 1420036203

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From the author of the bestselling "Analysis of Time Series," Time-Series Forecasting offers a comprehensive, up-to-date review of forecasting methods. It provides a summary of time-series modelling procedures, followed by a brief catalogue of many different time-series forecasting methods, ranging from ad-hoc methods through ARIMA and state-space

Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author: Graham Elliott

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2013-08-23

Total Pages: 667

ISBN-13: 0444627405

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The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics