Focus on Making Predictions
Author: Curriculum Associates Staff
Publisher:
Published: 2005-01-01
Total Pages:
ISBN-13: 9780760939048
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Duck on a Bike
Author: David Shannon
Publisher: Scholastic Inc.
Published: 2016-07-26
Total Pages: 42
ISBN-13: 0545530032
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn this off-beat book perfect for reading aloud, a Caldecott Honor winner shares the story of a duck who rides a bike with hilarious results. One day down on the farm, Duck got a wild idea. “I bet I could ride a bike,” he thought. He waddled over to where the boy parked his bike, climbed on, and began to ride. At first, he rode slowly and he wobbled a lot, but it was fun! Duck rode past Cow and waved to her. “Hello, Cow!” said Duck. “Moo,” said Cow. But what she thought was, “A duck on a bike? That’s the silliest thing I’ve ever seen!” And so, Duck rides past Sheep, Horse, and all the other barnyard animals. Suddenly, a group of kids ride by on their bikes and run into the farmhouse, leaving the bikes outside. Now ALL the animals can ride bikes, just like Duck! Praise for Duck on a Bike “Shannon serves up a sunny blend of humor and action in this delightful tale of a Duck who spies a red bicycle one day and gets “a wild idea” . . . Add to all this the abundant opportunity for youngsters to chime in with barnyard responses (“M-o-o-o”; “Cluck! Cluck!”), and the result is one swell read-aloud, packed with freewheeling fun.” —Publishers Weekly “Grab your funny bone—Shannon . . . rides again! . . . A “quackerjack” of a terrific escapade.” —Kirkus Reviews
Superforecasting
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
Published: 2015-09-29
Total Pages: 331
ISBN-13: 080413670X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKNEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
The Content Trap
Author: Bharat Anand
Publisher: Random House
Published: 2016-10-18
Total Pages: 464
ISBN-13: 0812995392
DOWNLOAD EBOOK“My favorite book of the year.”—Doug McMillon, CEO, Wal-Mart Stores Harvard Business School Professor of Strategy Bharat Anand presents an incisive new approach to digital transformation that favors fostering connectivity over focusing exclusively on content. NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY BLOOMBERG Companies everywhere face two major challenges today: getting noticed and getting paid. To confront these obstacles, Bharat Anand examines a range of businesses around the world, from The New York Times to The Economist, from Chinese Internet giant Tencent to Scandinavian digital trailblazer Schibsted, and from talent management to the future of education. Drawing on these stories and on the latest research in economics, strategy, and marketing, this refreshingly engaging book reveals important lessons, smashes celebrated myths, and reorients strategy. Success for flourishing companies comes not from making the best content but from recognizing how content enables customers’ connectivity; it comes not from protecting the value of content at all costs but from unearthing related opportunities close by; and it comes not from mimicking competitors’ best practices but from seeing choices as part of a connected whole. Digital change means that everyone today can reach and interact with others directly: We are all in the content business. But that comes with risks that Bharat Anand teaches us how to recognize and navigate. Filled with conversations with key players and in-depth dispatches from the front lines of digital change, The Content Trap is an essential new playbook for navigating the turbulent waters in which we find ourselves. Praise for The Content Trap “A masterful and thought-provoking book that has reshaped my understanding of content in the digital landscape.”—Ariel Emanuel, co-CEO, WME | IMG “The Content Trap is a book filled with stories of businesses, from music companies to magazine publishers, that missed connections and could never escape the narrow views that had brought them past success. But it is also filled with stories of those who made strategic choices to strengthen the links between content and returns in their new master plans. . . . The book is a call to clear thinking and reassessing why things are the way they are.”—The Wall Street Journal
When Kids Can't Read, what Teachers Can Do
Author: G. Kylene Beers
Publisher: Heinemann Educational Books
Published: 2003
Total Pages: 404
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFor Kylene Beers, the question of what to do when kids can't read surfaced in 1979 when she met and began teaching a boy named George. When George's parents asked her to explain why he couldn't read and how she could help, Beers, a secondary certified English teacher with no background in reading, realized she had little to offer. That moment sent her on a twenty-three-year search for answers to the question: How do we help middle and high schoolers who can't read? Now, she shares what she has learned and shows teachers how to help struggling readers with comprehension, vocabulary, fluency, word recognition, and motivation. Filled with student transcripts, detailed strategies, reproducible material, and extensive booklists, Beers' guide to teaching reading both instructs and inspires.
Prognostics
Author: Kai Goebel
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Published: 2017-04-03
Total Pages: 396
ISBN-13: 9781539074830
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPrognostics is the science of making predictions of engineering systems. It is part of a suite of techniques that determine whether a system is behaving within nominal operational performance and - if it does not - that determine what is wrong and how long it will take until the system no longer fulfills certain functional requirements. This book presents the latest developments and research findings on the topic of prognostics by the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA Ames Research Center. The book is intended to provide a practitioner with an understanding of the foundational concepts as well as practical tools to perform prognostics and health management on different types of engineering systems and in particular to predict remaining useful life.
Surfing Uncertainty
Author: Andy Clark
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 425
ISBN-13: 0190217014
DOWNLOAD EBOOKExciting new theories in neuroscience, psychology, and artificial intelligence are revealing minds like ours as predictive minds, forever trying to guess the incoming streams of sensory stimulation before they arrive. In this up-to-the-minute treatment, philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark explores new ways of thinking about perception, action, and the embodied mind.
Predictocracy
Author: Michael Abramowicz
Publisher: Yale University Press
Published: 2008-10-01
Total Pages: 364
ISBN-13: 0300144954
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPredicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.
Duck on a Tractor
Author: David Shannon
Publisher: Scholastic Inc.
Published: 2021-08-03
Total Pages: 36
ISBN-13: 0545619424
DOWNLOAD EBOOKBestselling Caldecott Honor artist David Shannon tells the story of a determined duck who decides to jump on a tractor and drive it around the barnyard and through town, with hilarious consequences! Shannon's wildly popular, award-winning Duck on a Bike left children begging him to tell them another story about Duck after seeing him pictured alongside a shiny red tractor. Now Duck is back and turning the farm upside down! Flushed with the success of his trailblazing bike ride around the farm, Duck decides he's ready to drive the tractor. As in the bestselling Duck on a Bike, all the barnyard animals share their humorous comments as they watch Duck do the unthinkable. Then, one by one, they join him on the tractor for a ride! But what happens when Duck drives the big red tractor through town, past the popular diner where all the locals are having lunch? What will those folks really think when they see Duck and all the other animals riding around on Farmer O'Dell's tractor? Filled with entertaining detail and sly jokes, readers will pore over each picture again and again. Perfect for reading aloud!
Predictions in the Brain
Author: Moshe Bar
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2011-05-10
Total Pages: 398
ISBN-13: 0199840954
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWhen one is immersed in the fascinating world of neuroscience findings, the brain might start to seem like a collection of "modules," each specializes in a specific mental feat. But just like in other domains of Nature, it is possible that much of the brain and mind's operation can be explained with a small set of universal principles. Given exciting recent developments in theory, empirical findings and computational studies, it seems that the generation of predictions might be one strong candidate for such a universal principle. This is the focus of Predictions in the brain. From the predictions required when a rat navigates a maze to food-caching in scrub-jays; from predictions essential in decision-making to social interactions; from predictions in the retina to the prefrontal cortex; and from predictions in early development to foresight in non-humans. The perspectives represented in this collection span a spectrum from the cellular underpinnings to the computational principles underlying future-related mental processes, and from systems neuroscience to cognition and emotion. In spite of this diversity, they share some core elements. Memory, for instance, is critical in any framework that explains predictions. In asking "what is next?" our brains have to refer to memory and experience on the way to simulating our mental future. But as much as this collection offers answers to important questions, it raises and emphasizes outstanding ones. How are experiences coded optimally to afford using them for predictions? How do we construct a new simulation from separate memories? How specific in detail are future-oriented thoughts, and when do they rely on imagery, concepts or language? Therefore, in addition to presenting the state-of-the-art of research and ideas about predictions as a universal principle in mind and brain, it is hoped that this collection will stimulate important new research into the foundations of our mental lives.
