This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.
This paper empirically examines the effects of different types of government expenditures, on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. We use different econometric techniques to estimate the short- and long-run effects of these expenditures on growth and employ annual data over the period 1969-2010. Our findings indicate that while private domestic and public investments, as well as healthcare expenditure, stimulate growth in the long-run, openness to trade and spending in the housing sector can also boost short-run production. These findings draw some policy implications for Saudi policymakers on maximizing the returns of the government spending on economic growth.
This report investigates Timor-Leste's potential to develop a vibrant, stable, and diversified economy that is not dependent on oil revenues. Implementing challenging reforms across the private sector, banking and finance, agriculture, infrastructure, and judiciary requires sound policies and effective legislation. The Government of Timor-Leste shows promising reform appetite and willingness to engage the private sector in developing alternate investment options to attract business to the country. Yet, significant challenges remain to ensure that rebuilding efforts and institutions are managed effectively to benefit all Timor-Leste's citizens. This report was produced by the Pacific Private Sector Development Initiative, a regional technical assistance facility cofinanced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Government of Australia, and the New Zealand Government.
This paper examines the empirical evidence on the contribution that government and, in particular, capital expenditure make to the growth performance of a sample of developing countries. Using the Denison growth accounting approach, this study finds that social expenditures may have a significant impact on growth in the short run, but infrastructure expenditures may have little influence. While current expenditures for directly productive purposes may exert a positive influence, capital expenditure in these sectors appears to exert a negative influence. Experiments with other explanatory variables confirm the importance of the growth of exports to the overall growth rate.
Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación
This paper identifies policy tools that could be used for fiscal consolidation in advanced and emerging economies in the years ahead. The consolidation strategy, particularly in advanced countries, should aim to stabilize age-related spending in relation to GDP, reduce non-age-related expenditure ratios, and increase revenues. Bold reforms are needed to offset projected increases in age-related spending, particularly health care. On the revenue side, measures could include improving tax compliance, for example through better international cooperation, as well as increasing the yield from VAT by eliminating exemptions and reduced rates, further developing property taxes, and increasing excise rates within the range of rates already applicable in comparable countries.
Amidst the debates about ‘austerity’ a number of vital debates in public finance have been sidelined. Because the reductions in government spending – small though they have been so far- have been designed to reduce the government’s borrowing requirement, there has been little discussion of whether the size of the state should be reduced in order to facilitate long-run reductions in the burden of taxation. This book traces the history of the growth of the size of the state over the last 100 years whilst also making international comparisons. There is a particular focus on recent and projected future developments which shows that, though the total level of government spending has not decreased significantly in recent years, there has been a big redirection of spending from some areas to others. The authors then examine the evidence on the relationship between taxation and economic growth. As well as reviewing recent literature, they also undertake new modelling that higher taxes are detrimental for growth. In the final part of the book, the whole UK tax system is reconsidered in a proper economic framework. The UK has one of the world’s most complex tax systems and its incoherence has increased over the last five years. Sweeping reforms are proposed to the system which wold involve abolishing around 20 taxes and the development of a simple, predictable tax system based on principles that should gain wide acceptance.
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
This report provides actionable advice on how to design and implement fiscal policies for both development and climate action. Building on more than two decades of research in development and environmental economics, it argues that well-designed environmental tax reforms are especially valuable in developing countries, where they can reduce emissions, increase domestic revenues, and generate positive welfare effects such as cleaner water, safer roads, and improvements in human health. Moreover, these reforms need not harm competitiveness. New empirical evidence from Indonesia and Mexico suggests that under certain conditions, raising fuel prices can actually increase firm productivity. Finally, the report discusses the role of fiscal policy in strengthening resilience to climate change. It provides evidence that preventive public investments and measures to build fiscal buffers can help safeguard stability and growth in the face of rising climate risks. In this way, environmental tax reforms and climate risk-management strategies can lay the much-needed fiscal foundation for development and climate action.
