Fiscal expansions, affect unemployment, but they may increase it
Author: Markus Brückner
Publisher:
Published: 2010
Total Pages: 31
ISBN-13:
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Fiscal Expansions Affect Unemployment, But the May Increase it
Author: Markus Brükner
Publisher:
Published: 2010
Total Pages: 31
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity
Author: Richard Hemming
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2002-12
Total Pages: 62
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2020-05-29
Total Pages: 50
ISBN-13: 1513536990
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTraditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis
Author: Alberto Alesina
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Published: 2013-06-25
Total Pages: 596
ISBN-13: 022601844X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.
Supply and Demand Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Extensions: Evidence from U.S. Counties
Author: Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2021-03-12
Total Pages: 35
ISBN-13: 1513572687
DOWNLOAD EBOOKI use three decades of county-level data to estimate the effects of federal unemployment benefit extensions on economic activity. To overcome the reverse causality coming from the fact that benefit extensions are a function of state unemployment rates, I only use the within-state variation in outcomes to identify treatment effects. Identification rests on a differences-in-differences approach which exploits heterogeneity in county exposure to policy changes. To distinguish demand and supply-side channels, I estimate the model separately for tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally I use benefit extensions as an instrument to estimate local fiscal multipliers of unemployment benefit transfers. I find (i) that the overall impact of benefit extensions on activity is positive, pointing to strong demand effects; (ii) that, even in tradable sectors, there are no negative supply-side effects from work disincentives; and (iii) a fiscal multiplier estimate of 1.92, similar to estimates in the literature for other types of spending.
The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2015-05-04
Total Pages: 26
ISBN-13: 1484361555
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits
Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher: Kingston, Ont. : Institute for Economic Research, Queen's University
Published: 1988
Total Pages: 36
ISBN-13: 9783925357558
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPersistent budget deficits have increased economists' interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy. This paper develops the Ricardian approach and contrasts it with standard models. The discussion considers from major theoretical objections to Ricardian equivalence-finite lifetimes, imperfect capital markets, uncertainty about future taxes and incomes, and the distorting effects of taxation Then the paper considers empirical evidence on interest rates, consumption and saving, and current-account deficits. The conclusion is that the Ricardian approach is a useful first-order approximation, and that this approach will probably become the benchwork model for assessing fiscal policy.
A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery
Author: Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2013-01-18
Total Pages: 53
ISBN-13: 1475595891
DOWNLOAD EBOOKWe analyse the effects of a government spending expansion in a DSGE model with Mortensen-Pissarides labour market frictions, deep habits in private and public consumption, investment adjustment costs, a constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function, and adjustments in employment both at the intensive as well as the extensive margin. The combination of deep habits and CES technology is crucial. The presence of deep habits magnifies the responses of macroeconomic variables to a fiscal stimulus, while an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour in the range of available estimates allows the model to produce a scenario compatible with the observed jobless recovery.
Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Published: 2015-04-20
Total Pages: 257
ISBN-13: 1498344658
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
