Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit
Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit

Author: Ms.Senay Agca

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-02-01

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1475542232

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We examine how the cost of corporate credit varies around fiscal consolidations aimed at reducing government debt. Using a new dataset on fiscal consolidations and syndicated corporate loan data, we find that loan spreads increase with fiscal consolidations, especially for small firms, domestic firms, and for firms with limited alternative financing sources. These adverse effects are mitigated substantially if consolidations are large, and can be avoided if consolidations are also accompanied with more adaptable macroeconomic policies and implemented by a stable government. These findings suggest that lenders price the short-term recessionary effects in loans but large consolidations can reduce or undo the increase in spreads, especially under favorable country conditions, by signaling credibility and creating expansionary expectations.

Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth
Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth

Author: Mr.James Daniel

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-08-17

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13: 9781589065130

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The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.

The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback
The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback

Author: Mr.Marcello M. Estevão

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-05-31

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13: 1484304489

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The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires measuring the size of fiscal multipliers, which often depends on having quarterly data so that exogenous fiscal policy shocks can be identified. We estimate fiscal multipliers using a novel methodology for identifying fiscal shocks within a structural vector autoregressive approach using annual data while controling for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and uses results for advanced economies, emerging market countries, and other broad groupings for which alternative estimates are available to validate the methodology. Differently from advanced and emerging market economies, fiscal consolidation in low-income countries has only a small temporary negative effect on growth while raising medium-term output. Shifting the composition of public spending toward capital expenditure further supports long-run growth.

Estimating the Costs of Financial Regulation
Estimating the Costs of Financial Regulation

Author: Mr.Andre Santos

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-09-11

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 147551008X

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Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management
Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management

Author: Mr.Jack Diamond

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-07-01

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13: 9781557757876

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Traditionally, economics training in public finances has focused more on tax than public expenditure issues, and within expenditure, more on policy considerations than the more mundane matters of public expenditure management. For many years, the IMF's Public Expenditure Management Division has answered specific questions raised by fiscal economists on such missions. Based on this experience, these guidelines arose from the need to provide a general overview of the principles and practices observed in three key aspects of public expenditure management: budget preparation, budget execution, and cash planning. For each aspect of public expenditure management, the guidelines identify separately the differing practices in four groups of countries - the francophone systems, the Commonwealth systems, Latin America, and those in the transition economies. Edited by Barry H. Potter and Jack Diamond, this publication is intended for a general fiscal, or a general budget, advisor interested in the macroeconomic dimension of public expenditure management.

From Stimulus to Consolidation
From Stimulus to Consolidation

Author: Juan Toro R.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-10-06

Total Pages: 122

ISBN-13: 1455217611

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This paper identifies policy tools that could be used for fiscal consolidation in advanced and emerging economies in the years ahead. The consolidation strategy, particularly in advanced countries, should aim to stabilize age-related spending in relation to GDP, reduce non-age-related expenditure ratios, and increase revenues. Bold reforms are needed to offset projected increases in age-related spending, particularly health care. On the revenue side, measures could include improving tax compliance, for example through better international cooperation, as well as increasing the yield from VAT by eliminating exemptions and reduced rates, further developing property taxes, and increasing excise rates within the range of rates already applicable in comparable countries.

Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit
Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit

Author: Ms.Senay Agca

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-02-01

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1475564449

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We examine how the cost of corporate credit varies around fiscal consolidations aimed at reducing government debt. Using a new dataset on fiscal consolidations and syndicated corporate loan data, we find that loan spreads increase with fiscal consolidations, especially for small firms, domestic firms, and for firms with limited alternative financing sources. These adverse effects are mitigated substantially if consolidations are large, and can be avoided if consolidations are also accompanied with more adaptable macroeconomic policies and implemented by a stable government. These findings suggest that lenders price the short-term recessionary effects in loans but large consolidations can reduce or undo the increase in spreads, especially under favorable country conditions, by signaling credibility and creating expansionary expectations.

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence
Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Author: Mr.Daniel Leigh

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-07-01

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1455294691

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This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.

Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Modeling
Zero Lower Bound Term Structure Modeling

Author: L. Krippner

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-01-05

Total Pages: 436

ISBN-13: 1137401826

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Nominal yields on government debt in several countries have fallen very near their zero lower bound (ZLB), causing a liquidity trap and limiting the capacity to stimulate economic growth. This book provides a comprehensive reference to ZLB structure modeling in an applied setting.

Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis

Author: Alberto Alesina

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2013-06-25

Total Pages: 596

ISBN-13: 022601844X

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The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.