In the region of Central Asia and South Caucasus, what is the potential for armed conflict, and how might such outbreaks escalate to a level that could involve U.S. forces? The authors evaluate the key political, economic, and societal faultlines underlying the likelihood of conflict in the region, assessing their implications for regional stability and for U.S. interests and potential involvement over the next 10 to 15 years.
This report is the final product of a project entitled "Sources of Conflict in the South Caucasus and Central Asia". The project was intended to help Army intelligence analysts improve their understanding of the potential for armed conflict in the region of Central Asia and South Caucasus and how such outbreaks might escalate to a level that could involve US forces. This report identifies and evaluates the key conflict-producing fault-lines in Central Asia and South Caucasus. The faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions and foreign interests and influence; and the impact of competition for natural resources. The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife. The report also examines the operational challenges the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 10- to 15-year time frame This research was completed largely prior to the September 11 attacks on the United States The report has been updated to take into account the changed security environment and the US military presence on the ground in the Central Asian and South Caucasus region The operations in Afghanistan have not altered the faultlines. They are long-term and structural in nature The current US presence on the ground means that they need to be taken into account even more than previously.
The Caucasus region and Central Asia covers a large part of the Eurasian. Both regions, where Russia and China have a serious influence and visibility, also have a location that reflects the hegemonic expectations of both these actors. In this context, domestic political developments and even internal conflicts in the region can be linked to the policies of Russia and China to a certain extent and have the potential to affect the motives of these two powers. Although Central Asia is rich in natural resources, it is landlocked and has lagged other nations in terms of agricultural production and industrial development. Although the Caucasus is divided into the North, the territory of Russia, and the South, where three independent states are located, it is insufficient in terms of production and development. The Caucasus stands out especially with energy projects and its feature of being a commercial corridor.
This book aims to highlight the efforts by the international community to facilitate solutions to the conflicts in the South Caucasus, and focuses particularly on the existing challenges to these efforts. The South Caucasus region has long been roiled by the lingering ethno-national conflicts—Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts within Georgia—that continue to disrupt security and stability in the entire region. Throughout different phases of the conflicts the international community has shown varying degrees of activism in conflict resolution. For clarity purposes, it should be emphasized that the notion of “international community” will be confined to the relevant organizations that have palpable share in the process—the UN, the OSCE, and the EU—and the states that have the biggest impact on conflict resolution and the leverage on the conflicting parties—Russia, Turkey, and the United States.
This book critically evaluates the growing body of theoretical literature on ethnic conflict and civil war, using empirical data from three major South Caucasian conflicts, evaluating the relative strengths and weaknesses of the available methodological approaches.
This book discusses and provides examples of Russia’s need to reshape its security and military policies in order to meet the global challenges of fighting terrorism and counterinsurgency. It addresses some of the problems facing Russia’s national security and military power, including: military reform US-Russian relations the political economy of Russian security policy Russian policy regarding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction the chances for US-Russian cooperation in ballistic missile defence. Russia's Security and the War on Terror provides a insight into Russian military policies and its changing relationship with NATO throughout the 1990s. This book was previously published as a special issue of The Journal of Slavic Military Studies
The military played a pivotal role in the political development, state functions, foreign policy and the daily lives of the people in the Central Asian states from the early twentieth century until the present. This book is the first major, in-depth study of the military institutions in Central Asian states. It examines their hidden story, the different stages of their development from the early twentieth century until the present, and the influence they had on the state and society. It effectively combines history, sociology of the military and political science and provides deeper insights into how recently formed states function. By concentrating extensively on the military, this book is an important and a timely contribution to a wide range of disciplines including Central Asian studies, and post-colonial state and nation-building studies.
Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Region faced numerous obstacles to building a stable and prosperous future. The region, which encompasses the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia, has been plagued by economic and political uncertainty amidst dramatic shifts in the global power structure. With the pandemic now exacerbating the volatility in this already fragile region, the U.S.'s strategic objectives are rife for re-examination. A complicated stew of factors such as weakening of established governance systems, the emboldening of extremist individuals and groups through advances in digital technology, the humanitarian crises in Afghanistan and Syria, and the intensification of the great power competition with China and Russia are creating a fertile environment for the growth of violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Such organizations take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest, which further undermine stability and the potential for peace and prosperity. While it is still early to fully understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. policy, this book provides a timely analysis of relevant dynamics such as popular radicalization, digital information ecosystems, networks of influence, and new capabilities to recognize and prepare for other such black swan events in the region.
