In the region of Central Asia and South Caucasus, what is the potential for armed conflict, and how might such outbreaks escalate to a level that could involve U.S. forces? The authors evaluate the key political, economic, and societal faultlines underlying the likelihood of conflict in the region, assessing their implications for regional stability and for U.S. interests and potential involvement over the next 10 to 15 years.
The Caucasus region and Central Asia covers a large part of the Eurasian. Both regions, where Russia and China have a serious influence and visibility, also have a location that reflects the hegemonic expectations of both these actors. In this context, domestic political developments and even internal conflicts in the region can be linked to the policies of Russia and China to a certain extent and have the potential to affect the motives of these two powers. Although Central Asia is rich in natural resources, it is landlocked and has lagged other nations in terms of agricultural production and industrial development. Although the Caucasus is divided into the North, the territory of Russia, and the South, where three independent states are located, it is insufficient in terms of production and development. The Caucasus stands out especially with energy projects and its feature of being a commercial corridor.
This report is the final product of a project entitled "Sources of Conflict in the South Caucasus and Central Asia". The project was intended to help Army intelligence analysts improve their understanding of the potential for armed conflict in the region of Central Asia and South Caucasus and how such outbreaks might escalate to a level that could involve US forces. This report identifies and evaluates the key conflict-producing fault-lines in Central Asia and South Caucasus. The faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions and foreign interests and influence; and the impact of competition for natural resources. The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife. The report also examines the operational challenges the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 10- to 15-year time frame This research was completed largely prior to the September 11 attacks on the United States The report has been updated to take into account the changed security environment and the US military presence on the ground in the Central Asian and South Caucasus region The operations in Afghanistan have not altered the faultlines. They are long-term and structural in nature The current US presence on the ground means that they need to be taken into account even more than previously.
This book aims to highlight the efforts by the international community to facilitate solutions to the conflicts in the South Caucasus, and focuses particularly on the existing challenges to these efforts. The South Caucasus region has long been roiled by the lingering ethno-national conflicts—Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts within Georgia—that continue to disrupt security and stability in the entire region. Throughout different phases of the conflicts the international community has shown varying degrees of activism in conflict resolution. For clarity purposes, it should be emphasized that the notion of “international community” will be confined to the relevant organizations that have palpable share in the process—the UN, the OSCE, and the EU—and the states that have the biggest impact on conflict resolution and the leverage on the conflicting parties—Russia, Turkey, and the United States.
This timely study is the first to examine the relationship between competition for energy resources and the propensity for conflict in the Caspian region. Taking the discussion well beyond issues of pipeline politics and the significance of Caspian oil and gas to the global market, the book offers significant new findings concerning the impact of energy wealth on the political life and economies of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. The contributors, a leading group of scholars and policymakers, explore the differing interests of ruling elites, the political opposition, and minority ethnic and religious groups region-wide. Placing Caspian development in the broader international relations context, the book assesses the ways in which Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey are fighting to protect their interests in the newly independent states and how competition for production contracts and pipeline routes influences regional security. Specific chapters also link regional issues to central questions of international politics and to theoretical debates over the role of energy wealth in political and economic development worldwide. Woven throughout the implications for U.S. policy, giving the book wide appeal to policymakers, corporate executives, energy analysts, and scholars alike.
Throughout history, Central Asia has formed an important strategic link between the East and the West and been described as the ‘great pivot’ in the early-twentieth century. This book looks at the relations between the Central Asian states and major external powers. It shows how these nations have kept the fragile geopolitics of the region free of the so-called ‘New Great Game’. The volume evaluates the roles of major powers such as Russia, United States, China, Iran, and Turkey, as well as India and its ‘Silk Road Strategy’. It also compares the regional geopolitics of Central Asia with its neighbour Caucasus. The study indicates how, despite limited inter-state cooperation, the region has prevented conflicts and wars, due to which these states have been able to enjoy greater strategic autonomy in their dealings with other countries. The book will benefit scholars and researchers of international relations, political and strategic studies, area studies, and Central Asian studies apart from the interested general reader.
This book critically evaluates the growing body of theoretical literature on ethnic conflict and civil war, using empirical data from three major South Caucasian conflicts, evaluating the relative strengths and weaknesses of the available methodological approaches.
Most books on the Caucasus and Central Asia are country-by-country studies. This book, on the other hand, fills a gap in Central Eurasian studies as one of the few comparative case study books on Central Eurasia, covering both the Caucasus and Central Asia; it considers key themes right across the two regions highlighting both political change and continuity. Comparative case study chapters, written by regional experts from a variety of methodological backgrounds, provide historical context, and evaluate Soviet political legacies and emerging policy outcomes. Key topics include: the varied types and sources of authoritarianism; political opposition and protest politics; predetermined outcomes of post-Soviet economic choices; social and stability impacts of natural resource wealth; variations in educational reform; international norm influence on gender policy and the power of human rights activists. Overall, the book provides a thorough, up-to-date overview of what is increasingly becoming a significant area of concern.
This book discusses and provides examples of Russia’s need to reshape its security and military policies in order to meet the global challenges of fighting terrorism and counterinsurgency. It addresses some of the problems facing Russia’s national security and military power, including: military reform US-Russian relations the political economy of Russian security policy Russian policy regarding the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction the chances for US-Russian cooperation in ballistic missile defence. Russia's Security and the War on Terror provides a insight into Russian military policies and its changing relationship with NATO throughout the 1990s. This book was previously published as a special issue of The Journal of Slavic Military Studies
