External Sector Report 2022
External Sector Report 2022

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-08-04

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13:

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Global current account balances—the overall size of current account deficits and surpluses—continued to widen in 2021 to 3.5 percent of world GDP, and are expected to widen again this year. The IMF’s multilateral approach suggests that global excess balances narrowed to 0.9 percent of world GDP in 2021 compared with 1.2 percent of world GDP in 2020. The pandemic has continued to affect economies’ current account balances unevenly through the travel and transportation sectors as well as a shift from services to goods consumption. Commodity prices recovered from the COVID-19 shock and started rising in 2021 with opposite effects on the external position of exporters and importers, a trend that the war in Ukraine is exacerbating in 2022. The medium-term outlook for global current account balances is a gradual narrowing as the impact of the pandemic fades away, commodity prices normalize, and fiscal consolidation in current account deficit economies progresses. However, this outlook is highly uncertain and subject to several risks. Policies to promote external rebalancing differ with positions and needs of individual economies.

External Sector Report 2024
External Sector Report 2024

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-07-12

Total Pages: 114

ISBN-13:

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This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2023 data. With tight monetary policy conditions in key advanced economies continuing in 2023, the US dollar remained strong in 2023 and early 2024 by historical standards, while other reserve currency movements have been mixed. Net capital inflows to emerging market and developing economies recovered slightly from the lows experienced in 2022 but remained negative in 2023. Gross inflows and outflows in emerging markets declined, however. Against this background, the global current account balance (defined as the cross-country sum of absolute values of current account) narrowed significantly in 2023, while the excess global current account balance (in excess of the current account norms) has remained broadly unchanged relative to 2022. The report also analyzes the historical pattern in the external sector implications of energy price swings. Energy-importing countries are exposed to adverse effects of negative oil supply shocks but can adopt several policy measures to soften the impact. Possible implications of the clean energy transition and the evolving correlation between the oil price and US dollar are discussed. Lastly, the report contains external sector assessments of individual economies, which are based on a wide range of methods including a multilaterally consistent model of current accounts.

Pilot External Sector Report
Pilot External Sector Report

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-02-07

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1498340288

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This Pilot External Sector Report (ESR) provides a multilaterally consistent analysis of the external positions of major world economies. Following the recommendations of the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review and the Managing Director’s Statement on Strengthening Surveillance, the focus of the analysis has been broadened beyond exchange rates to detailed examinations of current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets. It draws upon the Research Department’s past and new methods for assessing current accounts and real exchange rates (see Appendix I), and on previous IMF analytical work on exchange rates, capital flows and measures, and reserves adequacy.

External Sector Report 2023
External Sector Report 2023

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-07-18

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Global current account balances--the overall size of headline current account deficits and surpluses--widened for a third consecutive year in 2022. Main drivers were Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the uneven recovery from the pandemic, and the rapid tightening of US monetary policy. Concurrently, the US dollar appreciated substantially, and the uphill capital flow reappeared. IMF's external sector assessments suggest that the overall size of excess current account deficits and surpluses has remained unchanged since 2021, after declining for several years. This highlights the importance of efforts in both excess surplus and deficit economies to promote external rebalancing. The US dollar appreciation under the "global dollar cycle", which is driven primarily by global financial risks, has negative spillovers on activity and imports that fall on emerging market economies more severely than on advance economies. More flexible exchange rates and more anchored inflation expectations can mitigate negative spillovers to emerging markets.

2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology
2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology

Author: Mr. Cian Allen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-03-03

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13:

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The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has provided the framework for conducting external sector assessments by Fund staff since its introduction in 2012. This paper provides the latest version of the EBA methodology, updated in 2022 with additional refinements to the current account and real exchange rate regression models, as well as updated estimates for other components of the EBA methodology. The paper also includes an assessment of how estimated current account gaps based on EBA are associated with future external adjustment.

Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources
Global Debt Database: Methodology and Sources

Author: Samba Mbaye

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-05-14

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13: 1484353595

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This paper describes the compilation of the Global Debt Database (GDD), a cutting-edge dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world (190 countries) dating back to the 1950s. The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor, which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample. It differs from existing datasets in three major ways. First, it takes a fundamentally new approach to compiling historical data. Where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period, the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages, thus ensuring consistency across time. Second, it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets. Finally, the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample, setting a higher data quality standard.

External Sector Report, July 2018
External Sector Report, July 2018

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-07-23

Total Pages: 147

ISBN-13: 1484370465

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The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world’s largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.

External Sector Report 2021
External Sector Report 2021

Author: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-08-02

Total Pages: 110

ISBN-13: 1513576674

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Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2020, external developments throughout the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes how the unprecedented fiscal support provided in response to the COVID-19 crisis has affected external positions at the individual and global level. It also focuses on how withdrawal of such support will impact external positions in the medium term. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of June 30, 2021.

Saint Lucia
Saint Lucia

Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-02-16

Total Pages: 17

ISBN-13:

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A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Saint Lucia as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on improving key source data with the objective to strengthen the compilation of the balance of payments and the international investment position (IIP) statistics. The mission also provided practical advice during its review of the provisional 2021 balance of payments and IIP statistics, which were released in December 2022.

External Sector Report, 2020
External Sector Report, 2020

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-08-04

Total Pages: 114

ISBN-13: 1513549014

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Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2019, external developments during the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for responding to the crisis and for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes the relationship between the structure of external assets and liabilities—the components of the international investment position—and the risk of external stress events. It also assesses how heightened global risk aversion, as during the COVID-19 crisis, amplifies these risks. Chapter 3, “Individual Economy Assessments,” provides details on the different aspects of the overall external assessment and associated policy recommendations for 30 economies. This year’s report and associated external assessments are based on the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and on data and IMF staff projections as of July 15, 2020.